Destabilization looms

This mid-term elections could spark or precipitate a serious political challenge for the Aquino administration. This early, there are three (3) factors that, if not addressed and managed properly, could turn the elections into a spark that will eventually affect the political stability of this government.

One, early accusations about the PCOS machines. Groups are demanding the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to show transparency by allowing third parties to inspect the integrity of these machines. Two things sparked the "curiosity" of people---early announcement of Senator Frank Drilon of a 12 clean sweep of the Senatorial elections by the administration, and the ongoing legal dispute between Smartmatic and its previous software provider.

Comelec also bungled its early test of the machines. Obviously, this bungling was handled before the media. However, if these happens during the elections, and massive disfranchisement and other under handed tactics deprive candidates of their legitimate votes, this will turn into a nasty and unmanageable situation.

UNA and the camp of Vice President Binay consider this election as crucial for 2016. If Binay loses his grassroots network, he definitely will lose the presidency altogether. This early, critical power players in metropolitical centers are being crippled and disabled, most of them close associates of Binay. The Liberal Party is serious on mounting a successful presidential campaign by 2016, and they would really dismantle every single power center out there which is not within their scope.

Possibility of political parties crying foul this elections? Huge.

Possibility of these parties becoming destabilizers after the elections? Huge.

Arroyo's ghosts of destabilization

They're supposed to celebrate the day when they were given the power to legally rob us of our monies and liberties. But yesterday, it was totally different.

In dramatic fashion, the gang of Arroyo made the sign of the cross before convening their security meeting. I really don't know what they're afraid of here. At first, they said that there's a brewing destabilization plot from the camp of Trillianes. Now, they're saying that its the CPP-NPA-NDF. Yesterday's news said they identified 15 businessmen allegedly supporting the destabilization plot. So, it means that big business is now supporting the reds? Its quite confusing.

This charade is beginning to be quite tiresome. Every year, this administration spooks itself to death for no apparent reason. And it affects the local bourses and the markets. To think that last year, only 350 billion pesos worth of foreign investments or roughly 10 billion dollars were infused in the economy, a bad sign. What's the objective of scaring the public? What's the goal of Malacanan in floating these kinds of rumors? They are really chasing ghosts here. Surely, they must have a plot.

I don't know if you agree but I see just one goal---charter change. Since Rep. Ortega will be convening the Congressional committee at the end of this month, probably Malacanan is scheming something to scare us of our wits.

Malacanang should stop destabilizing itself. This strategy of self-destabilization is backfiring.

Are they doing it for chacha?
Are they doing it to disable their political enemies and make them toe the palace line?
Are they doing it to justify a lower than expected economic growth forecast?
Are they doing it to force the peso down against other regional currencies?
Or they're really, simply afraid of the ghosts they themselves invented in the first place?

Whatever it is, their paranoia is infecting the nation. Not because we are afraid of destabilizers. No. This game of spooking the nation is affecting the way we live simply because it is affecting the economy.

And to think that in the next few days, they are supposed to celebrate the day when they assumed illegal power.

Abalos and Formoso--sacrificial lambs

Joey de Venecia was a picture of frustration at today's Senate hearings. After Mendoza admitted meeting Mr. Arroyo and Comelec chairman Abalos, Joey sensed something wrong. Mendoza told Senators that he did meet the First Gentleman and Chairman Abalos at Wack Wack Golf and Country Club, but there was nothing anomalous about it. It was a simple chat, that's all and it has nothing to do with the ZTE deal.

Bull.

Don't tell me that the First Gentleman did not "pressure" Mendoza to agree about the deal. Don't tell me that Chair Abalos did'nt caddy for the Chinese. Abalos already admitted knowing the ZTE officials and they have discussed the ZTE deal at length prior to the April 21 signing of the agreement in China. Mendoza is simply lying for saying that he knows nothing rotten about the deal. What's more, Mendoza simply allowed an underling to defend the contract, deftly distancing himself from the issue. Is this the kind of secretary we deserve? Someone who heads the department but does'nt know or simply feign innocence whenever something like this happens?

I do believe, however, that Mendoza did not earn a single cent from this deal. I believe that Mendoza is clean. I can't say about the First Gentleman and Abalos. Maybe this deal was just to accommodate the wishes of the "old man" who's set to retire four months from now. Its quite possible that Abalos was expecting this deal to be his swan song. I do believe Joey's revelation though about Abalos. It seems that Joey was really pressured by Abalos to back off because this project was a project of the First Gentleman and Abalos.

I do emphathize with Mendoza though. He owes the First Gentleman his position. And generals like him are admired most for their capacity to keep secrets. It seems that Mendoza was just doing his job, while Abalos appears to be the one who wants a quick buck. It could be that this deal was the First Gentleman's gift to Abalos.

Obviously, in this political vaudeville (as described by GMA), the die has already been cast. Sacrifice Abalos and Formoso. Abalos is retiring from government service anyway while Formoso, well, he's dispensible. From the looks of it, GMA and her gang has decided to let Abalos go. The question though is, is this a wise decision?

The cabbie sings

Abalos knows a lot of secrets. He knows the real score especially on the 2004 elections. If he sings....that's another "fresh" destabilization plot. Abalos said that he'll attend the Senate hearings on Wednesday to clear his name. Sadly, this might be a foregone conclusion. The reputation of Abalos has been destroyed by Joey's pronouncements that it would be very hard for Abalos to cleanse his name.

A warning though to the good Chairman---the Chinese intelligence service is closely observing what's happening here. The Chinese Communist Party, obviously, would not let this issue sitting down. Abalos could face a very dangerous situation here.

If Abalos is let go, what's the possibility of him singing like a canary? There's a chance that he will.

Postscript

A "sick" First Gentleman left for Germany in the eve of the Senate hearings. What prompted him to leave? Could it be because of the Senate hearings? I think not.

I think the First Gentleman needs to check on his deposits in Switzerland. He went there with his banker. What would prod a sick man to leave in haste if it not for money? The only possibility is one of his banks need his signature. For what, you may ask? There are three possibilities: (1) FG needs to sign a bank transfer (2) He needs to withdraw a huge sum of money which he cannot do online and (3) it could be he's preparing the country of exile?

These things don't happen without a purpose. I stand by my observation that negotiations between GMA's camp and the counter-elite has reached an impasse. There could be another stab at ousting the president and the palace probably knows that the counter-elite has a stronger force than theirs. Are we seeing a repeat of EDSA very soon? I think yes. But, it may not happen this month or the next. It could probably happen either by January or February of next year. I think the nation is expecting yet another scandal which could precipitate a power grab.