Arroyo to declare martial rule either April or June?

Martial law by May? Though Global Source, a US-based think tank failed to identify when will the Arroyo administration would probably launch such a ridiculous measure to perpetuate itself to an overtime of power, sources of NPR says the possibility of Martial rule remains an option to the Arroyo cabal.

That window of opportunity for such a foolish and idiotic drive presents itself in the period of time between Congress entering into an adjournment of session from March 7 to April 12 or between June 6 to July 26 of this year.

An extraordinary event like this should only happen while Congress is in adjournment. Why? Because a declaration during a session is entirely disruptive, even chaotic.

The most likely time for Arroyo would be this period of adjournment, between March to April. Why? It allows more time for her allies to re-group themselves, shore up more resources and possibly increase support for the measure so that, come re-opening of the session, they may be able to push for an extension of the martial rule declaration only until July 26, 2009. By which time they may have already passed certain measures which will benefit them come 2010.

However, absent any stirrings from the public and possible genuine opposition from anti-Arroyo groups, the Arroyo Cabal may have to re-think their strategies and possibly go for the June 12 deadline they already set for themselves.

At this point in time, there is really nothing big an event that would justify an imposition of martial rule, except, if the following events/scenarios happen:

1. A worsening of the hostage crisis in Jolo, Sulu and the heightening of low intensity conflicts in MILF areas.

2. An increase in crime incidence in the Metropolitan areas.

3. An intensification of anti-Communist campaigns in both the red and the white areas.

4. Heightening of high-profile crime cases involving either assassinations of big-time personalities and/or government/police officials.

5. Possible "ambush-me" scenarios that would involve either the president and/or one or some of her officials.


A June declaration of martial rule is beneficial since it allows them a longer period of time of implementation and also, possibly, create a more beneficial atmosphere of likely support from allies.

A disruption of the political configurations via a martial rule measure would likely debilitate the opposition and cause support to rise for the administration.

JDV to cross swords against the Gang of Pigs

Will the father follow the footsteps of his controversial son this September? That appears to be the case here as former Speaker Joe de Venecia is said to be preparing for his testimony before the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee on the controversial ZTE deal. His testimony could potentially open a can of worms, says political kibitzers. But, for it to cause a huge issue that would lead to the downfall of Arroyo, I think not.

Arroyo remains as strong as ever. Charges of graft and corruption are starting to take centerstage again, with news on possible intervention of the lawyer of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo on the Meralco case linked to the bribery issue at the Court of Appeals and the reported pork barrel release timed for charter change. JDV's testimony could disrupt things temporarily. But if JDV fails to animate the curiosity of Filipinos on what really transpired on this botched deal, then, that could very well pose a big problem for the opposition.

This, I think, is the last card by the opposition against Arroyo. Should JDV fail to stir up the hornet's nest on this one, they have nothing more to accuse Arroyo of, leading to an uneasy impasse.

JDV's testimony could also lead to a disintegration of Lakas-CMD. This early, many of its veterans are thinking of abandoning ship with the latest pronouncement of Ray Roquero of the list of possible presidential bets. Many Lakas-CMD members think they have a shallow bench in 2010. With JDV's testimony against Arroyo and her gang of pigs, ass-lickers within this party may opt to change partylines to avoid a pork barrel shutoff.