Arroyo to declare martial rule either April or June?

Martial law by May? Though Global Source, a US-based think tank failed to identify when will the Arroyo administration would probably launch such a ridiculous measure to perpetuate itself to an overtime of power, sources of NPR says the possibility of Martial rule remains an option to the Arroyo cabal.

That window of opportunity for such a foolish and idiotic drive presents itself in the period of time between Congress entering into an adjournment of session from March 7 to April 12 or between June 6 to July 26 of this year.

An extraordinary event like this should only happen while Congress is in adjournment. Why? Because a declaration during a session is entirely disruptive, even chaotic.

The most likely time for Arroyo would be this period of adjournment, between March to April. Why? It allows more time for her allies to re-group themselves, shore up more resources and possibly increase support for the measure so that, come re-opening of the session, they may be able to push for an extension of the martial rule declaration only until July 26, 2009. By which time they may have already passed certain measures which will benefit them come 2010.

However, absent any stirrings from the public and possible genuine opposition from anti-Arroyo groups, the Arroyo Cabal may have to re-think their strategies and possibly go for the June 12 deadline they already set for themselves.

At this point in time, there is really nothing big an event that would justify an imposition of martial rule, except, if the following events/scenarios happen:

1. A worsening of the hostage crisis in Jolo, Sulu and the heightening of low intensity conflicts in MILF areas.

2. An increase in crime incidence in the Metropolitan areas.

3. An intensification of anti-Communist campaigns in both the red and the white areas.

4. Heightening of high-profile crime cases involving either assassinations of big-time personalities and/or government/police officials.

5. Possible "ambush-me" scenarios that would involve either the president and/or one or some of her officials.


A June declaration of martial rule is beneficial since it allows them a longer period of time of implementation and also, possibly, create a more beneficial atmosphere of likely support from allies.

A disruption of the political configurations via a martial rule measure would likely debilitate the opposition and cause support to rise for the administration.