Abaya is right---MRT problems, not political--its Liberal catatonia

DOTC secretary Emilio Abaya is right. MRT problems are definitely not political. It is administrative and inevitably linked with, governance.

When Abaya countered the Vice president's tirade against the MRT/LRT operational woes, the embattled DOTC secretary admonished the VP of connecting the issue with politics. There is no such thing in the DOTC, says Abaya. And I agree.

Had Abaya just lent a minute in listening to what the VP said, Binay did not link the MRT issue with politics, no. He linked it with inefficiency (kapalpakan). It is also wise to link it with the issue about "manhid" or transliterated into "paralysis" (to some, manhid means paralysis).

Abaya admitted that the problems persists and Abaya has been there for many years already and solutions remain undiscovered. Is the VP referring to operational catatonia when he accused the government of mismanaging the MRT issue? Yes. That's too obvious even for a West Pointer such as Abaya.

When you put "palpak" and "manhid" together, one term emerges---catatonic behaviour in governance. Another term is created--the inertia syndrome.

Don't worry, Mr. Abaya, this syndrome is evident in post-dictatorial administrations, something observed to really happen in countries which underwent strongman rule. Read SAŠA POLJANEC-BORIĆ paper, "Transfer of Governance Culture: A Case Study of Socio Cultural Barriers for Institutional Adaptation in Croatia." It's a deficiency.

That explains why persons such as Abaya is appointed to such positions in government to wrestle itself free from this deficiency. The problem really is when those in power do not recognise/admit or altogether gloss this deficiency over. The result is a self-destabilising catatonia (a state of immobility and stupor).

This catatonia proceeds from lack of empathy with the masses. Why is there apathy among government officials right now? It is because they belonged to the cono class, whose concern is economic meaning self-preservation.

Abaya, like his forebears, only want nothing more than preserve his family's wealth. This same goes with his principal, Mar Roxas, whose thirst for power is unquenchable because of his family's many economic interests proceeding from their businesses.

Abaya probably forgot the very reason why he is there at the DOTC. Or Abaya is right and I am wrong-- that Abaya is in there for the RIGHT REASONS, and that is, pursue the Liberal's interests.

Where would the NPC and the Nacionalista party put their political bets

The Liberal party has its bet, Mar Roxas, possibly running with Grace Poe. UNA, which is the party formed by merging former president Joseph Estrada's Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) and Vice president Jejomar Binay's PDP-Laban is fielding Binay as their own. Lakas is financing Rudy Duterte's trial balloon but nothing is definite yet.

Now, there are two main parties left which are the Nationalist Party controlled by former senator Manny Villar and the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of Danding Cojuangco. The NP has three potential candidates, namely Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Bongbong Marcos and Antonio Trillianes IV. While there's no news coming from the NPC ranks, which formerly tried and failed to field Senator Chiz Escudero.

It is important to know where these parties will go or what direction will they take in the coming months since they are considered serious parties as well with their vaulted mass networks. NP is the second biggest political party yet we haven't heard from them.

Several months ago, talks that Senator Manny Villar was trying to revive his presidential interests went south when his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar herself doused cold water to the proposal. If you study what's happening very closely, it is actually a good time for Villar to revive his presidential ambitions, for several reasons.

1. Villar is perceived by the business community as a safe candidate. He belongs to the community and therefore understands what the business community needs.

2. There is no charge of corruption against Villar.

3. There is no formidable name among those being chosen strong enough to counter Vice president Jejomar Binay.

What is entirely possible is a Villar vs. Binay fight which is like a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao one.

Or, the Nationalista party can very well coalesce with the Liberal Party and secure the senatorial lineup as well as the second spot if Grace Poe decides to join the Nationalista.

In that setup, obviously the LP will gain more because their bet is weak. The only question really is--would it be enough to prop up the sagging popularity of Roxas? I don't think so.

If the Nationalista decides to put their trusts behind Binay's camp, then, the Vice president wins, hands down. The thing is two Nacionalistas, namely Cayetano and Trillianes were responsible for that smear campaign against the Vice president and this puts a merger in a very tight spot.

Of course, that will only happen if these two nincompoops bolt the party and join their principals at the Liberal party.

Possible deserters from the NP side are Cayetano and Trillianes who are expected to join the Liberals. If this happens, then they will be cheering in the sidelines with Grace Poe acting as Mar Roxas' John the Baptist. Will they sacrifice their own promising careers and reputations just to make Roxas' win? Well, this question is surely a multi-million enigma.

Now, how about Lakas?

Surely, Lakas will not field their own candidate because doing so would further decimate their ranks and eventually lead to their irrelevance. They would surely place their bets to the winning or probable winner. I bet my bottom dollar they would go to Binay.

So there.

Let's see what the Nationalist party would do in the next few weeks. Will they field their own or will they just coalesce but to whom or which party?

Exodus of Liberal party members on! Major party splitting

Several members of the Liberal party, and that includes a group of veteran politicians from Luzon and the Visayas are planning to bolt from their party. Reason---they disagree with the things happening within their party which they say, threaten their own political survival.

Consider the very words of their presidential candidate Mar Roxas--their bet wants nothing more than extend the very term of President Aquino. Mar Roxas' wish is both cryptic and borders on the illegal. Cryptic because it seems that Roxas himself is throwing in the towel and is admitting before the public that he is not the guy worthy enough to replace Pnoy. And second, everyone knows that the term extension of the president is something illegal and constitutional.

Seems that the Liberal party ranks are desperate already. The chance of their bet snapping up a win in 2016 is as remote as the North pole. Mar Roxas' rating is a disappointment. For one, it is not moving even a notch despite what his handlers are doing. It is neither dropping or rising, meaning, it has reached its maximum and therefore, has plateau-ed. This is the most dangerous thing to happen for a political candidate--when your numbers have reached a dead end.

Surely, in a span of a year, and your numbers have not moved an inch, that is an obvious sign already that the candidate does not have a Chinaman's chance of winning the elections.

And if you have a losing candidate with you, it affects your political standing in your territory. Instead of benefitting from the blessing of the so-called top honcho, the act is even detrimental to your own campaign. Who will invite a losing bet to endorse a local candidate? That rubs off.

That explains why several LP members are floating another configuration--either a Kiko-Poe or a Binay-Mar. There are even suggestions of a Drilon candidacy, which, again, is an unwinnable possibility.

Are we seeing a major split in a major political organisation sometime soon? Yep, you guessed right.