Loren Legarda's Money Demands irked Chiz Escudero

Ding Gagelonia's explosive revelation behind Chiz Escudero's resignation merits public attention. Check his story out at http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com. Based on the story, Loren Legarda's 500 million peso demand and her dilatory tactics left Chiz Escudero without a choice but to leave NPC. Legarda, as what one source of Gagelonia says, demanded 500 million pesos from the NPC, then agreed to lower it down to 300 million pesos. Numerous instances where both Escudero and Legarda could have talked things out were squelched.

Seems like the inside story behind Escudero's resignation was neither nationalist nor personal. Escudero resigned from the party because talks between him and Legarda were getting nowhere. The push-and-pull of Escudero's and Legarda's forces ripped the possibility of a tandem apart, leading, as we now see, a presidential-less NPC.

Now, Gagelonia's expose does not discount the possibility that certain forces within the party itself wanted this to happen, simply, isolate Escudero, make things hard for him, and force him to take the road less travelled by politicians, that is, take refuge with minority power brokers.

I still maintain the stance that what Escudero did was a maverick move. Since he felt that the only true thing about the Nationalist People's Coalition is it's a coalition of people sans nationalism, then, it is but logical for him to salvage his reputation as an oppositionist and abandon a lost cause.

Okey, Escudero is faced with a monumental decision---pursue a losing proposition or just stay where he is right now, and hope for better times in the future. Escudero is in a bind. If he pursues his presidential bid and lose, Escudero's chances of getting it the second time are very slim. If he withdraws from the game at this point, Escudero still loses because what that means is weakness, a trait not entirely seen as admirable by the electorate.

Escudero, as what my sources say, is being egged to just support Noynoy Aquino. Aquino's camp admitted talks with Escudero. There is, however, no clear indication if those talks are even going anywhere, but this too is not entirely beneficial for Escudero.

Net---Escudero has to be the People's David and fight these traditional monsters that created this society we live right now.

The Chiz Escudero Gambit

A friend and colleague in this political analysis ek-ek, Pedestrian Observer has a pretty good analysis about Chiz Escudero. Read it, as well as Leslie Bocobo's piece.



Yep. Chiz is neither a haciendero nor a bilyonaryo, but he's surely a beneficiary of the Marcos regime. His father, Salvador, was a staunch pro-Marcos. And by Chiz association with Danding, yep, he probably benefited from the coconut levy fund which Danding is still using to prop his hold over as SMC.


It does not necessarily conclude that Chiz would be all-out Marcosian. I mean, the sins of the Father should not be blamed on the son. If Salvador Escudero erred on the side of dogged allegiance to a false prophet, he was simply, and probably did it out of fear or trepidation. And we don't expect the son to follow suit right?


Chiz's gambit, as what Senator Aquilino Pimentel described his "bold move" was, for me, a test of how far and how strong the progressives are in pursuing their cause. Chiz just lost a sizeable base of support coming from the traditionals, but the prospect of carving something out of the progressives or the middle class is higher than when he was with the NPC.


The question really is---are the progressives, or some term, reformist groups really ready to flex its muscles come May 2010? People are hoping that Chiz replicates the "miracle win" of Trillianes. Trillianes was losing in the survey game months prior to the 2004 elections when his stock suddenly climbed to the magic 12.


Political analysts were caught with their feet in their mouths. Many predicted defeat; but the contrary happened. Trillianes won, as some believe, without machinery.


That observation is surely not correct. Trillianes had his electoral machine which came from reformist groups within traditional political parties. Trapos also assisted Trillianes to win and some say, his victory also got the go-ahead from inside the palace. But, that's another story.


Now, let me go back to this gambit which Chiz took.


If Chiz pushes through, he needs the backing of the reformists and the progressives. Let me just clump them in one political creature---the middle forces. Right now, majority of the middle forces are aligned with Noynoy Aquino under the mistaken notion that Ninoy's son deserves to lead them. These middle forces constitute the bulk of Noynoy's mass base support. They are educated, idealists and really want changes in Philippine society.


Based on a very confidential poll survey research which I have, they comprise 78% of the total electorate. They are a cross-section of the economic classes. They are well informed and politically aware. They classify politicians in simple trapo and non-trapo terms. Obviously, they disdain trapos and want non-trapos to ascend to power.


What is going on right now (and which the Liberals surely know) is that even they cannot seem to get the full backing of the middle forces. Yes, majority are behind them but there is a sizeable chunk, which I call the "ideologically astute" and "political organizers" who command respect in the urban poor and middle class constituencies that reserve their support. These organizers are spread among different political parties, ready to be tapped when an ideal non-trapo enters the political fray.


This is what Chiz and his handlers want to tap. Doing so means weakening Noynoy's base, damaging the grassroots base of Erap's and slowing down organizing efforts of the Manny Villar camp. When this happens, the possibility of garnering at least 23-25% of the electorate votes is high. A candidate who gets 25% of the votes come May 2010 is a sure winner, particularly in a four or five corner fight.


Chiz has just positioned himself as a non-trapo candidate and poised to assume leadership of this category. All he needs to do is convince those belonging to Noynoy's camp, those ideologically astute and political organizers to shift and form an independent movement.


This is possible since Chiz now has the FPJM, the Samahang Magdalo, Ping Lacson's group and his own ChizNation organizations. If he gets the support of the Partido Lakas ng Masa (PLM), Sanlakas, BayanMuna (now aligned with Villar's), unions, people's organizations such as the PRRM, Code NGO and the People's Primaries, he stands on firmer ground. Now, should Eddie Villanueva's group align with him and Grace Padaca's group suddenly bolts out of the Liberal Party, then Chiz has his independent third force movement.


Likewise, what is the possibility of Senator Jamby Madrigal throwing her billions out for Chiz? High, if you ask me.


Now, what is the possibility of forming a broad coalition of progressives and reformist groups under one candidacy? Grace Padaca would surely stick with Mar. JIL is one open window. BayanMuna has their own political aggrupation, but probably open to talks, same goes to PLM-Sanlakas. Code NGO has been fractured already but many of them are aligned with the Liberals.


What would happen really is that Chiz will split this group in half, further diluting the chances of progressives ascending the top of the power structure post-May 2010. Chiz is doing what Ping Lacson did in 2004---splitting the progressives by positioning as the best alternative candidate. Chiz is like a monkey wrench thrown in the political pond to confuse and befuddle the political forces.

And the target seems to be Noynoy Aquino. Wittingly or unwittingly, Chiz just played sweetly in the hands of the administration.

Chiz Escudero to declare bid: Where's Noynoy's Millions?

Chiz Escudero will declare his bid for the presidency today, October 12 at noon in his office at the Senate. That was sent to me by one of his supporters.

Susan Roces, the widow of the late Fernando Poe Jr., is expected to be there. Loren, who is being touted as Chiz's running mate, will announce hers on October 22, the birthday of her mother. So, Loren will be doing a Mar Roxas?

Earlier, a text which was sent to me by another friend said that the Club Filipino event where Chiz is supposed to declare his bid, is cancelled.

Anyway, if Chiz fails to declare his bid today, it is of no concern. Everyone knows naman that he's really running for the presidency. So, a formal candidacy is really anti-climactic, right?

By the way, WHATEVER HAPPENED to the million signature campaign of my friend, Ed Roces? Don't tell me that it did not reach a million?

Chiz, to me, is the strongest presidential contender. He does not have the political baggages of other presidentiables, never been involved in any anomalous transaction and is staffed with idealistic people. I heard that the Samahang Magdalo is also behind his campaign. Good.

The YOU is still assessing its current position with regards to supporting a presidential candidate, because we have our own, who is Dado Valeroso. However, we are still open to talks.

YOU has one of the biggest networks among organizations, with 650,000 organizers and grassroots people throughout the Philippines and abroad.

People Power Coalition to power Noynoy-Mar tandem

Revival of People's Power Coalition (PPC)

Will there be a revival of the People Power Coalition (PPC), the organization that powered the Yellow Army to power? Now that Mar Roxas, president of the Liberal Party already accepted the vice presidential candidacy, the LP has just completed its slate. A recent survey shows that a Noynoy-Mar tandem would definitely corner 51% of the votes, a formidable pairing if compared with a Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda tandem.

It seems that the Noynoy-Mar tandem would break out of the LP organization and lead what others term as a "People Power Coalition". In the past, this coalition includes the Lakas-CMD party of former speaker Joe de Venecia Jr. With the problems being encountered by the administration party, the Partido Lakas-KAMPI CMD, will this lead to a breakaway and formally dissolve PALAKA?

PALAKA dissected

A source in the COMELEC says that Commissioners are decided not to formally recognize PALAKA. That opens the possibility of Lakas party members going all out for a PPC with the Liberal Party and its aligned organizations. An LP-Lakas coalition, with the support of various civil society members and people's organizations is undauntedly a strong electoral machine.

PPC is definitely a monkeywrench thrown in the political alignments. A Lakas-CMD less PALAKA will cut the administration party in half. If that happens, that will definitely frustrate the campaign of Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro. Will Kampi stay with its decision to field Teodoro or will it just coalesce with another party?

Lakas-less administration party to coalesce with NPC?

Sources say, a Lakas-CMD less administration party intends to coalesce with the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC). Teodoro, some analysts say, would just slide down to senator, to keep the NPC sanctioned tandem, Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda pairing. Others say, Teodoro would just launch his own campaign, independent of the administration.

That would render Palaka power-less.

UNO to break up; Villar still scouting for a running mate

That leaves us with the so-called "united" opposition. For the past few surveys, Erap's surveys have shown inconsistencies. The last survey shows him at third place, not a formidable number since he will be facing such formidable opponents like Noynoy and Villar. Erap also faces the same problems as Villar's---they lack strong choices for running mates.

Erap's camp is floating an Erap-Binay tandem, not a very strong pairing. This pairing is still up in the air since talks are rife that Binay is slated to join the People's Power Coalition (PPC) as possibly either its campaign manager or one of its senatoriables. If that happens, that leaves Erap without a vice presidential bet, and open to the possibility of a coalition.

Villar is floating a Villar-de Castro or a Villar-Cayetano or a Villar-Estrada tandems. De Castro has already said he will not pair with Villar while Cayetano said that she was unaware of any talks about it.

If Villar fails to get a suitable partner for him, he will probably entertain merger talks with UNO. That will be a graceful exit for Erap. Hence, a Villar-Estrada tandem.

Chiz Escudero's Frat brothers behind favorable mock elections

Whoever made a big fuss out of a mock elections in UP-diliman which favored Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) bet Chiz Escudero and fed it to the media is an idiot. He or she is damaging the campaign of Chiz.

Of course, Chiz would emerge winner in that mock elections because the ones who conducted the event happened to be his fraternity brothers from the Alpha Sigma fraternity. Chiz, you better admonish or caution your supporters from doing these kinds of things because it is not helping you in any way. In fact, it's destroying your reputation as a non-trapo candidate. Surveys and mock elections are trapo publicity stunts. And you don't want to be categorized as such, right?

Besides, that election reflects the sentiments of the young intelligentsia over at UP. Imagine, Bayani Fernando got 7% over there! Meaning, it's the intelligent bunch who are talking not the masa. The masa comprises the biggest voting block and you better speak their language and fast before you lose this.

For you to win, don't do trapo stuff.

By the way, go over my Facebook account and vote on my quiz there about the wives of presidentiables. Know who wins the vote.

New Configurations in Congress

Congress is in for war. Two camps, De Venecia's and Nograles' are gearing for a major battle possibly in the first week of February. Both camps have been saber-rattling. Both claim to have the support of Gloria Arroyo.

Reports claim that Mrs. Arroyo has given the signal for De Venecia's ouster. However, reports are connecting this order with the revival of the ZTE probe. I don't believe that Arroyo's order is directly connected with this probe. Even prior to the ZTE controversy, the camps of Arroyo and De Venecia have already been feuding. It started with Kampi raiding the ranks of Lakas in the 2007 elections and spilling over post-election period. Quarters are really after De Venecia's head because some grew tired of his "user-friendly" style of administration while others simply hate how he uses the speakership to corner juicy deals in government.

People, especially from civil society, are not massing behind JDV. There's no public outrage against these ouster moves. In fact, most welcome the possible change in the speakership post since it would give Mindanaoans (if they succeed in ousting JDV and replace him with his buddy. Rep. Nograles) a chance to prop up their voice in Congress.

The ZTE probe has nothing to do with JDV's possible ouster. Certain quarters in media close to JDV use this issue just to play up the emotions of the people and possibly get public support behind JDV. However, they are failing to mass up since people are already tired of JDV. I mean, the guy has been given five times to make his mark for Philippine development. He has failed five times.

Ominous times ahead for political parties

Arroyo allies are raiding and wrecking rival political parties way ahead of the 2010 polls. Lito Atienza, a known Arroyo lapdog, has succeeded in splitting the Liberal Party, which I believe, has the potential to be the strongest party in 2010. Reports that Sen. Kiko Pangilinan rejected calls for him to head the party further fuel talks that the party of presidentiable Mar Roxas is weakening. These reports are very bad for the party since it will discourage big-time campaign funders from giving campaign distributions to LP. If this happens, then, LP will find it very hard to launch a decent presidential campaign in 2010. No amount of palengke tours of Roxas will mask this weakening of LP.

Talks of Legarda's possible transfer to Lakas via the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) are getting louder by the minute. This shows that talks between a possible Roxas-Legarda tandem have failed. NPC is gearing for a coalition with Lakas since the FVR party has lost considerable strength with raidings from Kampi and these ouster moves against Lakas party stalwart JDV. Lakas needs all the support it could get from other parties. It has already aligned with Atienza's LP faction. However, it is planning for NPC's numbers to prop its base support.

What these means is this--political rivals of Kampi are slowly being raided and destroyed from within. Why? Because people behind Arroyo are preparing for cha-cha. I know this sounds disjointed but hear me out. Cha-cha is not yet dead. It will be revived after the ouster of JDV this February. When that happens, nothing can stop Gloria's camp from campaigning for her as prime minister.