ICRC workers' lives in extreme danger

Two of Mrs. Gloria Arroyo's lieutenants are bickering over the Sulu ICRC Hostage crisis. Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro castigated Senator Richard Gordon, an ally of Arroyo, for saying that the lives of the hostages are now in the hands of the president. This rabid administration dog wanted to shield his boss from brickbats later on. However, this betrays the real intention of the government.

Teodoro does'nt feel like talking with the hostages. For him, enough concessions have already been given. It's not for Gordon. For the head of the Philippine Red Cross, a troop pullout is needed to allow negotiations to continue. An inch of pullback would be enough to allow representatives of the ASG and the government to negotiate for the safe release of the two ICRC hostages, Notter and Vagni.

This is a very dangerous play these two jerks are playing. They're putting the very lives of these ICRC workers in extreme jeopardy. By bickering in public, they're both justifying the use of force and they're both telling us to just accept the terrible consequence later on. They are priming for an attack against the ASG.

What these government officials don't know is they're both playing in the hands of the ASG. Their public bickering would justify what the ASG wanted all along---behead the hostages and show the world that they mean business. They did it before and they're willing to do it again moreso now that even the Pope is watching the developments in that part of Mindanao.

Wittingly or unwittingly, these two government officials have now placed the very lives of these foreign hostages in extreme jeopardy. I would'nt be surprised if we get news that one of the two have already been executed.

Government want an assault. They want to feed on the machismo, the bravado and the confidence of the commander on the ground, to the detriment of the hostages and their families.

Actually, even prior to the release of Lacaba, government has planned for an assault. They want to show the world that they can defeat the ASG by the use of force, consistent with the US policy. They want to show Washington that Mrs. Arroyo is tough against terror.

This justifies what I have earlier wrote here----the government of Mrs. Arroyo, especially those hawks within the palace, want negotiations to fail to justify an armed encounter with the bandit group. This is just a palabas, a show, meant to appease their bosses over at the Pentagon and the State Department. Mrs. Arroyo wants to sacrifice the lives of the International Red Cross workers to show the US that it is serious in fighting intransigent elements in the country.

I say it again, what these jerks intend to do is based on a misreading of the situation.

Analysis of the Phil Situation 4: The Military

AFP Chief of Staff General Alex Yano has, time and again, said that the military organisation will not participate in the political intramurals. Yano said the loyalty of the military wrests in the sovereign power. Now, who is the sovereign power? It is the Filipino People, not one person.

Now, in the military organisation, the ruling class is PMA Class 1976, composed of Yano, PNP Chief of Staff Jesus Verzosa and his command officers. Now, the penultimate question--will Yano move against those who will try to unseat Mrs. Arroyo? Last year's November caper of Trillianes showed Yano sending his troops against the Magdalos. Will he do this again if challenged by younger PMA officers?

Posing to challenge the PMA Class 1976 is the officer corps of PMA Class 1978. Sources say this Class is actually behind the smear campaign of PNP Chief Verzosa and is allegedly maneuvering to get the AFP and PNP plum posts in 2009. This class is wont on smearing the integrity of Yano since most of them, allegedly, are afraid of their upperclassman.

What political observers fail to realize is that if attempts to unseat Arroyo fail this year, the possibility of an extended, even a totalitarian regime under Arroyo exists in 2009 and beyond, what with the PMA Class 1978 serving as Arroyo's praetorian guards. This is entirely possible given that Arroyo's henchmen are solidifying almost all institutions of government behind Arroyo's. There are talks that PMA Class 1978 will hold the distinction of being Arroyo's version of the Rolex generals (since Arroyo is an honorary member of this PMA class. Many members of the class are loyal and very close to the First Couple).

Question---will other classes stand up and oppose this from happening? We already sacrificed our lives to oust a dictator in 1986. Let's do it again to prevent an aspiring one from getting her way.

Time Play

A recent SWS survey says that Filipino memory only last for 2.5 days. Meaning, if there is any controversy, Filipinos only take a serious and close look at it for nearly 3 days. The survey however, does not state what happens after 2.5 to 3 days. It just says how long short term memory lasts for Filipinos.

That's why it is most crucial for those who want to resolve this Lozada episode to act expeditiously before anything bad happens. For the administration, for this thing to come to a stop, it must be transparent and feed to the lions so to speak, the main characters of this issue. The recent decision to make FG attend the Ombusman hearings does not help. Neither is the apparent pressure for Neri not to attend the Senate hearings. If this administration wants to nip this thing in the bud, it must act now. This is not, anymore, a media play. It has taken a life of its own, independent of what the media is saying.

For the pro-Lozada camp, it must act now to generate more steam so to speak, to be able to sustain the momentum that the Lozada testimony has created. Time, unfortunately, is not on the side of the anti-Arroyo camp, mainly because the nature of these things need speed and timing.

Sources say both camps are in the thick of negotiations. There are suggestions of an Arroyo graceful exit, with Vice President Noli de Castro assuming as president while a snap elections is being prepared. This is acceptable to anti-Arroyo groups, since De Castro has a high acceptability rating and perceived to be least corrupt among Cabinet members of the Arroyo regime. Publicly, Arroyo has said that she'll not step down and will continue serving until her term ends in 2010.

I believe that mass mobilizations will continue this week prior to the celebration of EDSA Uno, which anti-Arroyo groups say is the Original EDSA. Today will be most crucial because Arroyo is in her most weakest and most vulnerable state. First, influential groups have joined the fray against her, including both the religious and business. And second, grass-roots organizing has started, with the support of Catholic schools, the main ingredient of any EDSA revolt. Even if Arroyo uses the full strength of the military and police in neutralizing these groups, it will NOT BE SUCCESSFUL because ANY OPPRESSIVE ACT COMING FROM THE STATE RIGHT NOW WOULD IMPACT ON THE INTERNATIONAL IMAGE OF THE ARROYO ADMINISTRATION.

Ergo, groups should pursue this thing to its logical conclusion which is the OUSTER OF ARROYO prior to EDSA Uno celebrations. If it fails to generate mass support or slacken along the way, then, these groups would be more susceptible to counter-revolutionary measures and probably, more oppressive actions coming from Arroyo. Hence, the time to act is NOW.