2010 Configurations

Despite his single digit rating, many people still believe that Mar Roxas is one of the strongest contenders for the presidency. Given a two-way fight, Mar could very well give his opponent a real struggle, given his enormous resources and organizational machinery.

He's young. He's intelligent. He knows how to run the economy. And he's pretty respected among peers and colleagues alike.

Of course, reality is, there's no two-party fight come 2010. Given our multi-party system, there is that strongest possibility of these configurations come election time:

1. A Teodoro-Escudero or Escudero-Teodoro tandem for the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) in tandem with the KAMPI of Mrs. Arroyo.

2. A Mar Roxas-Legarda tandem for the Liberal Party, of course, with the blessing of Legarda's party, the NPC. Or, quite possibly, a Mar Roxas-Lacson tandem.

3. Estrada-Binay tandem for the Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) or, if worst comes to worst, an Estrada-Villar tandem.

4. Villar-Noli de Castro or De Castro-Villar tandem for Lakas-CMD if the merger talks with KAMPI collapses. The Nacionalista Party of Villar is in serious merger talks with Lakas-CMD since last year. The possibility of them joining up with Lakas-CMD remains very viable.

5. A third force composed of either Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio, General Danny Lim and other political aspirants.

In a multi-party fight, expect another minority president to emerge. In that scenario, an administration bet is sure to clinch the final spot, since it has the resources and the organization to boot.

For Mar Roxas to win in this situation, he needs to be able to differentiate himself from the pack. He needs to strengthen his opposition character since, he needs that to be able to position himself as a rational alternative to the UNO or United Opposition clique of Estrada.

Unless of course, eventually, Roxas and his Liberals decide to merge with Estrada which, obviously, is a possibility but not entirely viable since it would destroy efforts being made by the Estrada camp to prop up the former president for a second run.

I think that defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro is being made as "super proxy" against Roxas. He's being positioned to neutralize or get votes away from Roxas by positioning him as "young, maverick and a technocrat, highly qualified".

Teodoro's statement saying that he'll not run without the blessing of Gloria ran smack against Roxas' campaign strategy of opposing Gloria and positioning away from the administration.

Pang-inis lang or simply realpolitik?

With the same thick skin

A colleague of mine once said that more people wrote about Ces' kidnapping incident than this latest tragedy involving Sulpicio lines. I just visited www.filipinovoices.com and found his observation false. Both incidents got equal attention. And both should be condemned as signs of government negligence.

However, I find very disenheartening opposition's silence about this latest incident. It seems that their mouths were suddenly gagged. They probably think that this incident is not political at all. It's a tragedy and like their counterparts in the States, they should keep their big mouths shut.

As usual, the opposition is misinterpreting the situation. If they're really dead serious in toppling this government, now is the time to do it. People are mourning. People know that the cause of their suffering was government negligence. First, government still allowed a recidivist like Sulpicio Lines to still operate despite its dismal record as a carrier. Second, the DOTC, Marina and Coast Guard erred in handling Sulpicio Lines with kid's gloves. And third, government just acted after four days, it is as if they allowed all those people trapped inside the ship to die first before undertaking retrieval operations (note: its retrieval, not rescue).

Look at the depth of the people's despair. Any revolutionist would probably exploit this situation to push for his cause. To hell if people would accuse a revolutionist of being a manipulative and exploiter of bad fate. Hey, this is a struggle. And this is an opportunity that should not have been passed by those who want Gloria's head.

That's the problem with the opposition. Their sights are directed at 2010. This fact highlights one thing--they are no different from those who illegally occupy Malacanan. They have the same skin, the same hide as those whom they publicly despise.

43 billion for 2010 elections?

Opps, haven't you noticed?

In just a few days, the peso climbed to 43 pesos to a dollar. That would surely affect rice importation by government. Instead of probably losing 20 billion pesos, as what Mar Roxas correctly said, government could lose more since it aims to import 675 metric tons of rice. Current global prices of a ton of rice is pegged between 800 to 1,000 dollars per metric ton. That would surely require more money from government to be able to import enough stocks.

There's another one.

Former agriculture secretary Salvador Escudero, the last agri secretary of dictator Marcos, correctly pointed out that Mrs. Arroyo is set to implement a 43 billion pesos rice self-sufficiency program similar to Masagana 99. Escudero said that Masagana 99 gave the Philippines a self-sufficiency status for almost ten years.

With FIELDS, Escudero hopes that the same thing will happen in the Philippines. I think though that the similarities are just about that.

With 2010 just around the corner, I am quite sure that this FIELDS program will just be used to prop up the chances of KAMPI-Lakas CMD against the opposition, especially in courting votes in the countryside.

KAMPI knows that its chances against the opposition stands quite low since Estrada continues to position himself as the opposition's poster boy. To justify cheating in this election again, they could probably use FIELDS to justify victory in the countrysides.

We all know that cavans of rice translate into votes come election time. And if we are to believe economic adviser Salceda that this crisis will affect us until 2010, you now know what I mean.

Prognostinations in 2008

We have seen numerous fortune tellers on television, saying this and that about our fate this 2008. This year, as everyone knows, is the start of a new cycle in Chinese astrology. These fortune tellers have already said things on the futures and careers of showbiz personalities, etc. What about politics and the economy? Let me humour you, my readers, about some political prognostinations this 2008.

Politics 1: Anti-Arroyo protests to continue

Protests against this government will continue unabated this year. However, I see that these groups will encounter numerous problems. First, logistics. Second, lack of support from political parties and third, internal disagreements. These snags will affect their moves in a major way.

Initiative has been lost due to the Christmas season. I see a controversy to happen within the first and second weeks of January which would again, put the anti-arroyo movement on perspective. A move to oust Arroyo could be possible within January or the first weeks of February. After this, possibly on June, July or worst, September.

Politics 2: Opposition will remain weak

The fragmentation of the opposition ranks contribute greatly to its weakness. This early, various opposition personalities have intimated their desire to run for president in 2010. I dare say that these personalities do not hold the people's interests in their hearts. For if they do, they will not wreck the opposition ranks with their personal desires. No one among them is fit to become president. They don't have the genuine interest of the people in their minds and hearts.

The lack of a solid campaign ideological platform will contribute to the defeat of the opposition in 2010.

Politics 3: 2008--campaign year for 2010

2008 will usher the start of the election campaign period. Several personalities will test the waters so to speak. Expect vigorous media campaigns from presidentiables coming from the opposition and administration.

Politics 4: Philippines--theater of war between US and China

This country will remain the foremost theater of war between the US and China. Though undeclared, this silent war will continue in the Philippines. We felt this cold war between the two economic giants during the ZTE controversy and the propaganda against Chinese products. Chinese and American interests will dominate Philippine policy-making this year.

Last year, we saw the emergence of a forward base by the US in Mindanao. China will definitely fortify its presence in the Spratlys as countermeasure. Increased Chinese presence in the country will be felt. It will be a matter of how pervasive the influence is from both groups.

Politics 5: US to choose candidate with strong links

The US is seeking a presidentiable who will not oppose US interests and at the same time, counter Chinese interests in the country. Obviously, this administration is pro-Chinese. Look at how it looks the other way when Chinese products flood the markets via Customs. Study the disparity of US products vis-a-vis Chinese products in the Philippines and you'll know what I meant.

2008 will see more and more engagements of Chinese and American envoys with both opposition and administration camps. Castilian interests will be tertiary.

Views from the Sidelines

I've read enough to be convinced that a new Philipppine Revolution should be launched now.

Our country has so much promise. One, our economy is strong and holding itself up against globalization. Two, most of our people are beginning to realize their power. Despite the massive fraud last elections, the people showed how disgusted they were in the state of affairs that they voted for Trillianes. He stood for something, an ideal that the people shared. Three, people are slowly being organized. Unlike the tumultuous 60's where people join socialist groups, people are organizing their own groups. Fourth, young people are beginning to occupy sensitive posts in the government, bringing with them new, fresh ideas for reform and growth. And fifth, Filipinos from abroad are starting to participate in active people empowerment. These Filipino-Americans are bringing their knowledge, their skills and experience into the country, enriching the fertile soil of the Fatherland and contributing towards growth and development.

However, much have been done, few have changed--in the political scene.

We are still wracked by political dissension. We have an administration whom the people distrust. We have "pseudo-leaders" occupying sensitive executive posts, who ascended Olympus by merely having a political surname. Wars are exploding left and right, North to South, Congress to Senate, Provincial Capitol to Municipalities.

We have a weak state. Due to its weakness, it tries to flex its muscles by using legal weapons. Despite its legal arsenal, the people remain defiant. Thousands of our poor brothers and sisters prostitute themselves to their new slave masters--the Arabs and those with almond eyes. Thousands more desperate go to the mountains to fight for principles. Others go to the route less taken--turning into bandits and petty criminals. The State tries to implement the law with less success.

Counter-state forces remain weak and equally discredited. One reason why an EDSA remains a far-fetched idea is the inability of the opposition to lead. The "Genuine Opposition" is not an opposition at all. They are pseudo dissenters. These "oppositionists" oppose for convenience. They are not in power. They lust for more power, that's why they dissent. These old faces want a comeback. They had their own sweet time in government but wanted to revivew their political careers, sidelined by a new elite.

Obviously, both the administration and the opposition have negated themselves. This is the condition today that merits the entry of a 3rd force--a movement that has its own ideology, its own philosophy, its own concept of a true opposition and a more effective administration.

This is a movement that is a conglomeration of every Filipino ideal, every one's aspiration, every one's paradigm for the future. This is a movement of the enlightened Filipinos. This is a movement that does not distinguish between Left nor the Right, but a movement that encourages capitalist competition under a strong socialist-oriented government.

This is a movement of New Men, pursuing a New Revolution. And this blog is dedicated to them.