Saturday, July 11, 2015

Will a Roxas-Poe tandem be enough to defeat a Jejomar Binay?

It seems that, based on newspaper reports, President Aquino himself is brokering a Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem. Sources say a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem is a 100% certainty already. Lately, things are reportedly changing, as Aquino himself is trying his darn best to isolate Escudero and give a Roxas-Poe a chance.

Closest associates with Chiz say the Senator will think twice campaigning against Poe. Poe is in a bind. If she runs as vice president, chances are good, because she fares well at the surveys. That will leave a biblical fight between Roxas and Binay, which, if surveys are again to be believed, would result to a Binay presidency.

Binay's numbers may be slowly going South, but that is exactly what the LP camp wants us to believe. Look closely at these surveys and the opposite is the actual result. Binay is not losing his base. Grace Poe's numbers are improving because she is getting those additional points from somewhere, possibly from Bongbong Marcos' or from other names put there by the survey firm. Binay is holding on.

If talks falter, that assures a Poe-Escudero tandem, which, to be blunt, benefits Escudero more than Poe. Poe would have to fight it out with the vaulted LP machinery and the UNA. Without a very solid support base, Poe stands to lose.

Escudero, meanwhile, will be the runaway winner in the vice-presidential race if Bongbong Marcos will not run. If the NP fields a Cayetano-Marcos campaign, Cayetano will surely lose yet Marcos will definitely win.

Meanwhile, Senator Antonio Trillianes is definitely sure of running for the vice presidency. He's expected to give his opponents a run for their money since his political machinery is stable and expansive.

There is a belief that a two-way fight might result to a dismal defeat of Binay. I don't believe that yarn. Ask around and you'll know what the masses think. In a two-way fight between Roxas and Binay, people will choose Binay anytime. There is this unexplainable disdain against Roxas by most people.

In a two-way fight between Poe and Binay, Poe is expected to put out a good fight but eventually Binay will emerge the winner. If Poe gets Roxas' constituency and some of former president Joseph Estrada's, that is more than enough to defeat Binay.

However, in a three-way fight, with Binay keeping his 25-30% mass base, Poe could probably pull out a stunner since she will eat Roxas' constituency up and may possibly get the numbers enough to pull Binay down to a very slim margin.

Possible configurations this 2016:

1. If talks between the LP camp and the Poe-Escudero camp fails, Mar Roxas may have to run all by himself, which, to be frank, will be perceived as a weak campaign leading to his second defeat at the polls.

2. Binay's camp is leaning towards Berberabe as a potential running mate yet there is a surprise man in the equation which is being convinced to run opposite Binay. I am not at liberty revealing this man but if he agrees, his tandem with Binay will surely be one of the most talked about tandems of this election.

3. The NP is still in a quandary: field their own or coalesce and ensure the victories of their senatorial candidates. There are reports that a Cayetano-Marcos is being prepped. We all know what would happen to Cayetano but at least that gives him a proper "training" for the 2022 elections, yes?

4. The Poe-Escudero tandem is 100% certain. If this happens, expect a Binay-Escudero administration.

5. A Binay-Marcos administration  is only possible if Poe runs as a presidential candidate. If Poe runs for the vice presidency, she wins and a Binay-Poe administration looms.