Noynoy running for President; 5 Traditional Oppositionists gunning for top spot

Now, the political scene is getting clearer by the day.

The traditional oppositionists, and that includes the Liberal Party with some reformist groups, have at least five candidates for the presidency.

For the Liberal side, Noynoy Aquino has already announced his candidacy, while from the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), Senator Chiz Escudero. Former ambassador Ernie Maceda has said that former president Joseph Estrada is running under the UNO party while the Nacionalista Party is fielding Senator Manny Villar.

On the administration side, its a toss up between Vice President Noli de Castro, who will announce his candidacy on September 15 and Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro. De Castro is rumoured to have agreed to be Villar's running mate, which then opens the door for Teodoro. Eventually, it could be a Teodoro-Puno tandem. However, should De Castro, indeed runs under the administration banner, he could probably team up with Puno, which then would lead to a break up of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD coalition.

Recently, 49 governors have thrown their support behind Teodoro, of which about half of them do exert a great influence in their respective areas. Teodoro remains a dark horse in the presidential derby because he has the machinery to actually launch an independent presidential campaign. If Teodoro does indeed, break away from the Lakas-KAMPI CMD merger, it could open the possibility of Lakas aligned with De Venecia Jr. to shift their support from the administration party-led KAMPI to Noynoy's political party.

As what we wrote a few months ago, a five to six man run for the presidency would possibly lead to an administration win. Remember that Mrs. Arroyo still enjoys a 20% mass base support and with majority of local government officials aligned with the administration moving for the admin-backed candidate, this could lead to a decisive win.

Lakas and the Binay group to join Noynoy Aquino

Senator Noynoy Aquino is sure to become the strongest presidential candidate, even stronger than Villar or former president Joseph Estrada if two major political forces merge or coalesce with the Noypi movement anytime soon.

And the possibility is higher than expected.

Yesterday was as historic as Mar Roxas announcement a few weeks ago when former speaker and Lakas original founding member Jose de Venecia Jr. and fifty other Lakas "originals" denounced the merger of their party with that of KAMPI. Since it merged with the administration party of Mrs. Arroyo a few months ago, Lakas originals led by de Venecia Jr. and former president Fidel V. Ramos have insisted that the so-called merger was illegal and was not approved by the majority of the party members.

Actually, a source, an original Lakas-CMD leader, said that the reason why they are protesting against the merger is the apparent attempt by KAMPI leaders to further raid the Lakas-CMD ranks. As far as the COMELEC is concerned, Lakas-CMD is the dominant party and the purported merger, the animal named " Lakas-Kampi CMD", is still not a recognized political party.

Now, most of the Lakas party leaders want to merge with the Noynoy for President Initiative or Noypi. Many of Lakas members believe that Noynoy represents the most viable candidate who is able to present an alternative agenda.

Noynoy is expected to announce his bid for the presidency today at the Kalayaan Hall of Club Filipino.

If Lakas breaks away from Kampi, that would dilute the vaunted power and strength of the administration machinery.

Another possibility is the break-away of another group, this time from the UNO ranks. Noypi members are courting Makati mayor Jejomar Binay to join them. Another source, this time from Binay's camp said that there's a 100% chance that Binay will join Noypi.

Why is Defense secretary Teodoro not in the official delegation to Washington?

Is'nt it very odd that Mrs. Arroyo left her Defense secretary here when the purported reason behind Washington's invitation was all about terrorism? Mrs. Arroyo deemed it wise to tag along her amigas, Congresswomen Amelita Villarosa, Cosculluela and even Cong. Susano along, with MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando and his wife Marikina mayor Marides, but forgot to include her defense chief when all she will be talking with Barack Obama are defense and security matters?

It seems even strange that Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita, who heads the presidential task force on Human Rights and Justice secretary Agnes Devenadera, who heads the department handling sensitive criminal and civil cases, are included. Would Obama discuss those increasing numbers of human rights cases here? Possibly, says Senator Rodolfo Biazon.

It is even more odd that a Senator, Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago is also with Mrs. Arroyo. What would be the role of Miriam when she does not know about defense and security matters anyway?

Senator Rodolfo Biazon said that the visit may not be as good as what she had back in 2004, the year when she was elected. There is a great possibility that Obama will discuss the worsening human rights situation in the country.

Back to my original question---what is the reason behind that decision to leave Teodoro behind? Curiously though, Teodoro's rival for the Lakas-KAMPI presidential nomination, Fernando, is with the president. Is that an indication that Teodoro has already secured Mrs. Arroyo's support and Teodoro is slowly being eased out, like what's happening with Puno?

For the latest update, go to http://www.newphilrevolution.com.

Noli de Castro running as president

ABS-CBN anchor Ted Failon and beautiful and talented co-anchor Pinky Webb interviewed Vice President Noli de Castro today. Webb (congrats by the way. Webb is really promising. She's even better than Karen who reported a lop-sided (PR?) story yesterday about the Ruby Barrameda case) asked De Castro if he's running for the presidency.

De Castro said he's done as vice president so it's confirmed that he's running for another post. The question really is---what political party would he be running under? It's confirmed that he's talking with the stalwarts of administration party Lakas-KAMPI. He admits that the party has a very strong machinery. The question that De Castro wants to resolve is very simple---does he really have his own funds and his own machinery before he plunges himself in the race.

Lakas-KAMPI members are urging De Castro to reveal his political plans. De Castro, however, said that he's not doing that AT THIS TIME since he needs to finish many things first as Vice President. He does'nt want people to think of politics when he does his job as V-P. He thinks that it's still a few months away anyway from the deadline in filing his certificate of candidacy. Webb hinted that it may be in September when De Castro would declare his candidacy.

What De Castro does not know is this---October would be the month where political parties would nominate their official candidates for all elective posts. So, if ever he wants to really run, he needs to declare it as early as August to allow him some time to visit the areas of Lakas-KAMPI members and feel the pulse of the people there.

Simple--KABAYAN does not have the luxury of time to dilly-dally.

Same thing with the "opposition". They need to decide who among them would bear the tag "opposition standard bearer", because UNO needs to submit the name of their standard bearer and the names of their other candidates this October 2009. So, if they want to win, Erap Estrada should really decide who to support as their candidate.

What is clear at this point is:

1. Liberal Party would be fielding Mar Roxas as their standard bearer. The only question is--who between Senators Ping Lacson and Kiko Pangilinan would be his running mate?

2. Nacionalista Party is clear that they're fielding Manny Villar. Question is, who'll be his running mate? Would it be Bong Revilla? Or, would he slide down to the vice presidential post in deference to the entry of a Noli de Castro?

3. Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) has Chiz Escudero. His proclamation would be on October 10. Question is--who'll be his running mate? Would it be Loren Legarda?

4. UNO is sure to field Erap Estrada. Question---would Legarda allow herself to slide down to the vice presidential post? It seems likely. Now, should Legarda decide to put her fate in the NPC, then, definitely UNO would field an Estrada-Binay tandem.

5. Lakas-KAMPI has four (4) aspirants: Gilbert Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Bayani Fernando and Richard Gordon. Gordon, obviously, if asked, would slide down to a re-election as senator. Teodoro already said that he's only interested to run for the presidency; meaning, he'll not slide down. Fernando, by the way, seems to just be posturing. I think Fernando would be asked to just run as senator. Yet, even among the top senatoriables being surveyed by PulseAsia and SWS, Fernando's position is between 28 to 45---very, very far.

So, you see, only Lakas-KAMPI has (1) few options and (2) their candidates are weak in the popularity game, with the exception of De Castro. Now, if they field De Castro, would Teodoro give way and run as his V-P? That would surely alienate Ronnie Puno who already proclaimed his bid for the second top post. If they do not nominate De Castro, then, the only way for him is declare his independent candidacy.

Clashes inside the Palace: Teodoro's Birthday Bash and FG's in HK

A few months ago, I remember how Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro publicly announced his desire to be anointed by Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Unlike other presidentiables, Teodoro did not believe that an anointment from Arroyo would be considered a "kiss of death". Teodoro said that he'll surely not push thru with his presidential candidacy without Arroyo's endorsement.

How would Teodoro feel if one or at least two of Mrs. Arroyo's family members already expressed their disapproval of him as the lady president's "heir apparent"?

Last June 28, during the birthday celebration of the First Gentleman in Hongkong, presidential son Mikey Arroyo had an unusual toast. Infront of about 60 to 70 or so guests of the First Gentleman who were bileted at the posh Island Shangri-La Hotel in Admiralty , Mikey reportedly expressed his disatisfaction and apparent dismay (some say disgust) against Teodoro. Describing his mother's defense secretary as "wily and crafty", the presidential son reportedly showed his personal animosity with Teodoro. Reportedly, the president just smiled while the First Gentleman reportedly looked on with an impish smile.

What precipitated this unexpected tirade against Teodoro? Some sources say it was the photo of US Defense secretary Robert Gates with his Filipino counterpart that increased suspicion among Arroyo family members that Teodoro is moving against the Chief Executive.

Sources say some palace officials close to the Arroyo clique expressed fears of Teodoro possibly using his increasing military network to undermine Mrs. Arroyo. Others, however, said that the Arroyos have a "personal thing" with Teodoro's wife who happens to be a Prieto.

Is this the reason why Teodoro, as some analysts observed, is being slowly eased out in Arroyo's inner circle? Or the Arroyo clique read something sinister behind the birthday bash of Teodoro last June 15?

Remember that two weeks prior, US Defense secretary Robert Gates met Teodoro. Gates visited the DND upon the personal invitation of Teodoro. Prior to Gates' departure, the highest US official of the Obama administration to visit Manila, expressed a glowing account of US-Philippine cooperation against terrorism. Insiders say, Gates virtually "endorsed" Teodoro.

Gate's visit was reportedly the cause for the thawing of relations between Arroyo and Teodoro. Arroyo was reportedly "unaware" of the visit of Gates. This visit was interpreted by close Arroyo advisers as evident proof that something is definitely "not right" in Teodoro's group.

Another proof that Teodoro is slowly being eased out was when Mrs. Arroyo decided not to ask Teodoro to accompany her in her visits in Japan and the Americas.

A source, a politician, however said he was not surprised with this latest development. What's happening, he says, is that some quarters within the palace are actually moving against Gibo to prop up Vice President Noli de Castro's standing within the Lakas-KAMPI party. Talks are reportedly underway to split the purported Teodoro-Puno tandem and replace it with a De Castro-Teodoro team, or a De Castro-Puno teamup. Some LAKAS-KAMPI officials favor a De Castro presidency since the chances of winning are high instead of a Teodoro-Puno.

Teodoro is supposed to announce his entry into the Lakas-KAMPI political party on the first week of July. What happened? Is Teodoro backing out and thinking of forming his own political party? Will this "new party" the one that would finally break the huge machinery of Lakas-KAMPI.

This early, some Lakas members already bolted the coalition and went to the Nationalist People's Coalition, while some, to the Nacionalista Party. Are these signs of a crumbling Arroyo regime?

Teodoro to announce bid on June 30

This is just in---Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro is expected to be sworn in as Lakas-KAMPI CMD candidate on June 30, 2009. Likewise, on the first week of July, Kabayang Noli de Castro will also swear as member of the newly formed political party. Some say, it's probably in July 1, 2009 or within the week after Teodoro is sworn in as Lakas-KAMPI CMD.

It seems that talks between the camps of Noli and Manny Villar fell through. Villar and Noli went on extensive negotiations in New York last week and with this news, it seems that their teamup will not push thru as planned.

Now, who will be the presidential candidate of the administration party? Is it Teodoro, who is being supported by most Cabinet members? Or Noli? There are talks that Noli will slide down to the vice presidential post, since he is not constitutionally barred from running a second term.

If that happens, then, there's another showdown between Legarda and Noli since there are strong talks that Legarda is willing to engage her erstwhile "nemesis" a second time around.

Now, it would be too uncanny if Noli, for example, wins the LAKAS-KAMPI CMD presidential nomination and Legarda runs for the vice-presidency, that would be too chaotic for a new administration, would you think?

Question---saan pupulutin si Manny Villar? It seems that he's in a quandary. He does'nt have a team mate. And his problems are piling up.

LAKAS-KAMPI CMD could elect New Prexy

Here's the thing. In the Philippines, all politics is local. National politicians behave like local officials. They do the same thing---reinforce the patron-client relationship through giving favors and the like. That said, what is more potent than a political party that has at least 72% of local officials under its wing? Surely, that is a very big threat to the ambitions of the counter-elite led by the Opposition.

Yesterday's LAKAS-KAMPI CMD launching party shows a stellar cast of trapos and people with graft cases. Nothing of a surprise there since even before this, LAKAS and KAMPI have shown dogged allegiance to Mrs. Arroyo. What is a surprise is the absence of perceived "strong supporters" like FVR, Villafuerte, Fernando and De Venecia---all original members of the first LAKAS-CMD and KAMPI. Ramos made his opposition known through a press conference. While others maintained their silence.

Now, what would happen to this "powerhouse" of a party? Will they splinter and scatter, as what the Opposition hopes? Unlikely, I suppose.

As I said, national politics behave like local ones and in local politics, relationships are based on support, particularly financial. If you have the booty, you win. If you have the lagay muscle, you win. But, if you just have "ideology", chances are, you lose. Nothing of a surprise since everyone knows how crude the political system still is.

With a 40 billion peso electoral kitty, that would ensure the perpetuation of elitist rule in this country. A huge sum of money like that could buy an election. And Interior secretary Ronnie Puno is probably not joking. This political party has the muscle to push the next president to Malacanang.

If Lakas KAMPI CMD continues on united, there is a big chance for them to get the presidency and frustrate the ambitions of a disunted opposition.

Lakas-KAMPI CMD--the devil's flock

A New political party will be unveiled today. This party, the elite's answer to the yearning clamour of the masses for change, will not be the one that would save us. It'll not be the one who'll save us from the rot,the mess that the Arroyo regime did for some nine years. No.

This party aims to perpetuate the existing clique's rule, a rule so base that it does not deserve even a page in this country's History.

That party---the merger of KAMPI, Mrs. Arroyo's political baby, and LAKAS-CMD, the creature invented by former president Fidel V. Ramos---is sure to create strong ripples in the political pond.

Admit it or not, this party is a powerhouse. It counts most of the local executives of this country as members and is powered by 40 billion pesos.

LAKAS-KAMPI CMD is a marriage of convenience, a desperate attempt by the ruling elitist clique to perpetuate its illegal rule. A legitimizing move, meant to justify an illegal administration, and an attempt to preserve the way of life that they so lavishly enjoyed these nine years.

Those who took part in the Hello Garci scandal, those who funded and earned from the most expensive highway in the world, those who continuously scam millions of farmers out of their harvests, those who import rice fit for pigs from Vietnam, those who benefitted from billion peso worth of DPWH projects, those who got billions from defense and telecomms projects, and those who took part in the scandalous and murderous Joc-Joc Bolante fertilizer scam, are now at it again.

These people will again, scam their way into power, the same method they used to illegally usurp power from an incumbent and the only way they know how to get money from public coffers.

This time though, the name itself betrays the very philosophy of this flock of vultures---Lakas (means strength) and Kampi (illegal association) merged together to subliminally tell us that they are more powerful than before.

That, in acting like a mafia, there's strength. Instead of unity, they opted to perpetuate a scheme of continual elite rule through KAMPIHAN, a belief so base and so immoral that it makes one puke even hearing it mentioned.

Tonight, LAKAS-KAMPI CMD will invite prospective recruits into their fold. How many and how influential those persons are, take a quick look at who heads this devil's marriage:

DILG Secretary Ronnie Puno, the architect of numerous electoral scams and scamlets.
Speaker Prospero Nograles, Davao's alleged land grabber and main proponent of sipsip politics in the Philippines
Cong. Villafuerte, the strong man of Bicol, the very reason why that region continues to wallow in extreme poverty.

Let the true Party of the Masses rise up and defeat this evil monster come 2010.

New Administration Party: LAKAS-KAMPI CMD

Next Tuesday, the Committee on Constitutional Amendments chaired by Cong. Victor Ortega will decide on the fate of Speaker Prospero Nograles' bill or House Resolution No. 1109 which pushes for a convening of Congress into an assembly to propose amendments to the 1987 Constitution. Analysts say, this is a last ditch attempt at charter change. It seeks to exclude the Senate in the voting for amendments to expedite the main motive for the bill---the change from a presidential to a parliamentary form of government to allow Mrs. Arroyo to run as Congressman and seek the Prime Ministership (see Philippine Daily Inquirer report)

One question---what is the effect of the soon-to-be political marriage of Lakas and KAMPI to this attempt at cha-cha? Yesterday, the main proponents of this merger already invented a name for themselves--LAKAS KAMPI CMD. This merger, I think, is the strongest possible political coalition for the administration. And it will be the biggest political party should it comes to fruition.

While members of LAKAS and KAMPI are preparing for the elections, some of their members are still trying to pass charter change using the back door. Now, will this latest dig at cha-cha be one of the sour points of this coalition? Some politicians whom I chanced upon yesterday said that most, if not all, are against cha-cha. However, some said that the Las Vegas trip was a PR event, meant to provide the numbers for the passage of the Nograles bill.

Now, should Congress pursue their Tuesday thing and LAKAS-KAMPI CMD opposed it, it surely would lead to a fractious political marriage. Will the new LAKAS-KAMPI CMD be able to conveniently trade this off in exchange for what?