The color of the SONA

Mrs. Arroyo wore a fushcia colored dress, described a radio reporter who covered the State of the Nation address (SONA) yesterday. There were instances where Mrs. Arroyo wore shades of red or a simple fiery red dress--when she gave that SONA that condemned rebel soldiers who trooped to a posh hotel just to make a statement.

Now, many people, especially those who criticize her, see this as an expression of her fighting stance. Yes, many would definitely give some "color" into this. Though Mrs. Arroyo's color selection is simply out of touch and definitely NOT the fashion color of this year (yellow is 'IN'), observers believe this highlights her main message---fight for the Filipino People.

Arroyo believes that she's fighting a good fight---improving the economy, giving houses to the poor and enhancing the investor environment. For some though, she failed, and failed miserably.

She's fighting to stay in power, some say. Her speech yesterday was not what we expect her to say--that she'll step down from that perch come June 2010. But, we're not that naive. Her greedy husband and son just told us the truth---she intends to leave Malacanang and we must believe them. Why?

They know the implications of such a thing. If they renege on this, they know that they'll be courting disaster. It's really their fault. Arroyo made a mistake when she announced her political plans on Rizal day in Baguio. And they love giving double-talks. If Arroyo lied, then, let her be. She knows her accountabilities.

This is something which I observed. Instead of relaying the right message, Mrs. Arroyo actually showed her tendency to be really out of touch of reality. That summarizes her entire administration.

For example, she gave us a glowing rundown of economic policies, which, are really excellent. Yet, what she probably failed to say is there is still a growing segment of our population that did not see or even felt this. GDP and GNP are two indicators of economic progress. Yet, for those in the lowest rungs of society, these terms mean nothing.

She talked about the vastly improving ICT sector but what she failed to say is, those who belonged to the 600,000 or so people who got jobs from this sector, all belonged to the educated (at least) segment of the society. Of course, there is some spillover effects, like in the construction business. And indirectly, some segments of the poorest classes benefited by working as masons and construction workers. Yet, as I said, this is still a work in progress.

Now, if we ask then, should we then conclude that she failed in her performance as president? Not entirely. She was able to weather all these storms that came in her way---political and economic instabilities. It takes a strong willed leader to survive all that. And for that, let's give her credit.

It takes a very strong political will to be able to realize the dreams of 1.8 million Filipino families to own their own house and lots. It takes a strong political desire to keep the economy afloat despite the strong surges of the global financial tsunami. Strong leadership is also needed in a patron-client kind of political system, where people's loyalties are based on "what is in store for me?" instead of "what do you offer as a vision so that my performance as a public servant is enhanced?" And surely, it takes more than patience to deal with rapacious business suit-wearing ass-lickers and opportunists who lurk in the shadows inside the palace.

What is important is, Mrs. Arroyo's administration just proved one glaring fact---we need a change in the system. Honestly, our choices to succeed her lack one or two very important leadership qualities. Of course, these people have their own management styles and concepts of governance. But, these are, at best, unproven. They are all abstractions.

In a culture such as ours, weak leadership means one thing---an unstable and weak government, susceptible to attacks against all political forces, be it beneficent or malevolent. In a state of transition, weaker political players wait in the wings for the opportunity to strike. To her credit, Mrs. Arroyo successfully handled the government despite charges of corruption, power monopoly, and interventionist actions by her husband.

Mrs. Arroyo's actions are good studies in state dynamics and public administration. It is a classic case of balancing power.

2009 SONA: Arroyo should be given the benefit of the doubt

Thousands flocked to that long stretch of Commonwealth avenue, many of them flag-carrying youngsters and old street parliamentarians. There were young and old ones the same faces that have marched since 2002. It was one of the biggest congregation of anti-Arroyo forces. They were all there, a few kilometers away from Batasang Pambansa, to hear what Mrs. Arroyo has to say about the Philippine state of affairs.

I was also there. I braved the rains and tried to get as much footage as possible of the thousands of young men and women all marching together to express their rage against Mrs. Arroyo. Many hoped that this is the last State of the Nation address (SONA) of the most hated president of Philippine history. Veterans of the First Quarter Storm, senators, congressmen and those who considered themselves "opposition" were all in attendance. We were all ready to hear Arroyo's speech.

Her speech was what many expect it to be---a litany of achievements which she did for all these years. 700,000 poor and impoverished families saved from hunger thru the poverty-alleviation program. Eight million jobs created by encouraging foreign investments and improving the local economy. Almost two million Filipino Families given homes. Several Overseas Filipino Workers (about 700 of them) saved from the Arabian gallows. Roads and bridges were constructed. Foreign debt somewhat lessened to about 7% of GDP and pump priming the economy to a level has never before seen in the history of the young Philippine Republic.

If you seriously look at the economic data, especially from the National Statistics Office (NSO), Mrs. Arroyo was not joking at all when she boasted that we're not in pretty bad shape (not yet, I guess). Mrs. Arroyo and her administration really tried to improve the economy. That 5-7% inflation rate and those annual 7-8% economic growth are nothing to sneeze at. Even at the height of the former Ramos administration, we did not see that kind of growth.

Admit it---Mrs. Arroyo did an extremely good job in the economy. Through her efforts, we were insulated from the dire effects of the global financial crisis. The fact that we're not under recession (yet) shows you that serious efforts are being made by the Arroyo administration to somewhat protect us from further slipping into a very serious economic meltdown.

And that is not an easy thing to do. Inheriting a government burdened by a 500 billion peso debt seems a tall order. But, not for Mrs. Arroyo who worked her ass off just to prove that her administration has the political will to see us thru the hard times.

Why am I saying this after hundreds of entries demolishing Mrs. Arroyo for her failure to address certain sensitive issues, like unemployment and peace and order and of course, graft and corruption?

I realized that it's time to give Mrs. Arroyo a chance to redeem herself. When she told the throng who were there in Congress that she's determined to finish her term and possibly retire after, I believed her. I believe that, this time, she had had it. She's done. She already proved to all that, despite the demonising and the mud-slinging, she can still hack it.

Critics and some allies alike say, Mrs. Arroyo is not done yet. She did'nt categorically say that she's stepping down. There was no categorical yes and no categorical no. So, echoing what Prof. David said, Mrs. Arroyo has still some ace in her sleeves. Democracy is still threatened by her continued presence at the palace.

Crap. Come on.

Mrs. Arroyo already gave what she believes is her valedictory address. If you're the president, you' would not say those "categoricals" simply because you want to avoid a situation where people would mistakenly conclude that you're already a lame duck. There are still tons of unfinished business for Mrs. Arroyo and she wants to pursue them before she calls it a day.

If she states "categorically" that she's done, people would pounce on her and declare that she's already a lame duck, a spent political force, a dud. And if you're considered a dud, a lame duck, you simply would not be able to finish what you've started, especially when these "political vultures" around.

It is time to give Mrs. Arroyo the benefit of the doubt and try to help her with her unfinished projects. That, I think, is the best way for us to be assured that she'll be stepping down come June 2010.

Some people, I think, Professor Randy David say, don't believe her. She has the tendency to "double talk".

Let me then ask Prof. David--so, what will we do? Do you have suggestions? Are we just going to wait for her " yes, I'll not run" speech before we help her and act? Or, are we waiting for the heavens to fall? We're not that stupid I presume. For me, it's enough that Mrs. Arroyo already said that she does not have any intention of staying one minute longer come June 2010.

Towards a Transformative National Agenda

Here's an excerpt from the "Philippine Situationer: 2001-2010". Get your free copy at http://www.newphilrevolution.com.

Professor Paul Bancroft of the University of Wisconsin has a very insightful summary of the kind of governance and political turmoil the Philippines is facing now. Writing in the Journal of Democracy, Bancroft described the present state of Philippine democracy as a failure of the political leadership to provide direction out of the political turmoil:

In her seven years as Philippine president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has found political legitimacy elusive. She has survived numerous travails by very effectively wielding the substantial powers of her office, but exhibits no qualms about further undermining the country's already weak political institutions. Post-Marcos Philippine democracy can boast many strengths, including a vibrant civil society, but it has been battered in recent years by a major electoral scandal, extrajudicial killings, attacks on the press, a recurrence of military adventurism, and on-going patterns of corruption and violence. The Arroyo imbroglio strains the country's longstanding but patronage-infested democratic structures, thus highlighting the necessity of well-considered political reform. A central goal should be the fostering of stronger and more programmatic political parties.

Indeed, Philippine governmental institutions continues to weaken due to the weight brought by cronyism, graft and corrupt practices and an absence of political parties that act as balancers or fiscalizers in the state. This lead to what some political observers call a stagnation of democracy.

To restore these institutions to order, we propose the following steps towards National Transformation.

1. Strict and no-nonsense implementation and respect of the Philippines’ regime of laws.
 The legal or juridical system is not defective. It is in the administration of justice that causes the problem.
 The unequal application of laws hinders the workings of democracy and greatly impacts on the perception of the Philippines as a partially free or non-functioning democracy.
 In all aspects of public life, government should ensure that all members of the polity respect and honor the laws passed by Congress.


2. Eliminate cronyism and decrease executive influence over major government institutions, affiliates and agencies
 The devolution of executive powers should be undertaken. Executive power is so strong that it plays a major role in all spheres of public life. Due to a lack of a major political force in Philippine society, the Executive has taken over the vacuum, leading to a dis-equilibrium in the exercise of State power.
 Political subdivision should be undertaken with

3. Promote a regime of fair play in all spheres of private and public life. Professionalize the bureaucracy and implement a meritocratic regime.
 There is a current perception among investors that doing business in the Philippines requires authorization from those in power. To eliminate this, government should cut red tape further by streamlining the bureaucracy and promote further computerization of the system.
 The Codes of Ethics should be strictly implemented and violators put to justice.
 Promotions in the government service should be based on performance and integrity in service.

4. Promote a two-party system, with the minority party exercising effective fiscalizing duties within the boundaries of parliamentary ethics.
 A two-party systems works well in a small democracy such as the Philippines.
 To do this, government must encourage small parties and people’s organizations to merge or align with bigger political parties.
 Political parties should promote philosophical or ideological platforms that conform with the general world-view of their constituencies.

5. Increase stakeholder participation from civil society, the academe and people’s organizations in national policy-making.
 NGO participation plays a pivotal role in nation-building. The inputs made by members of the academe in further improving the dispensation of basic services should always be part of the process of governmental policy-making.
 People’s participation in policy-making should not be limited to public consultations. Instead, members of stakeholder groups should be appointed as “consultancy” bodies in all branches of government to enhance democratic participation.

6. Pursue peace with revolutionary and insurgent groups while implementing an all-out war against terrorist organisations.
 Government should pursue peace efforts with revolutionary and insurgent groups through continuous talks.
 Military action, however, should be intensified against known terrorist organizations in the country.
 Members of the AFP and the PNP accused of political crimes should be immediately pardoned and released.
 People’s participation in peace efforts should be prioritized.
 Third party mediators are encouraged particularly in the area of developmental assistance.

7. Insulate the national economy against the damaging effects of globalization by protecting national industries while liberalising non-critical sectors of the Philippine economy.
 Government should limit the entry of foreign companies particularly in ownership and access to critical sectors of the economy.
 Foreign participation should be limited in enhancing the IT outsourcing sector and SME.
 Foreigners should not be allowed to own land. Land resource should be strictly relegated to the enjoyment of the Filipino people.

8. Exploitation of the natural resources of the Philippines shall be limited to Filipinos. Joint venture agreements with foreign firms should strictly be under the BOT Law.
 The law on Joint Venture agreements should be revised to lower the entry rate of foreign firms in resource exploitation and use.
 Genuine Agrarian reform shall be strictly enforced.
 The 60-40 parity law should be amended. Instead, 70% local ownership and 30% for foreign companies.

9. Launch a Nationalist moral recovery program centered on emphasizing and stressing the need for every Filipino to go back to the traditional moral systems.
 Government shall spearhead a moral recovery program centered on changing the cultural mindset of every Filipino.
 Promote a unitary philosophical worldview with greater emphasis on increasing the morale of the Filipino as a race and nation.
 Enhance the educational system and transform it as a lead agency in promoting patriotism in all spheres of public life.
 Moral recovery must start from the top down. Government should utilise the educational system to spread patriotic values not just in the young but likewise in all sectors of the populace.



10. Enhance financial support mechanisms for small and medium-sized enterprises and promote entrepreneurship.
 Small and medium-sized enterprises are the prime motors of Philippine economic growth and development. Support structures are already in place. However, government should increase credit and loan facilities and encourage banks and financial institutions to assist in widening the number of SMEs in the country.
 Entrepreneurship training seminars should be further increased and widened in scope to allow other services and products.

11. Increase food security in the Philippines through strengthening the production capability of the agricultural and agri-business sectors.
 Food security should be one of the top priorities of the government. With a growing population, it is most critical that the internal production capabilities of these sectors be enhanced.
 Dependence on imported goods should further be delimited.
 Farm-to-market roads should further be increased in number to assist in the smooth delivery of agricultural products straight to the consumer market.

12. Modernize the armed forces and transform it into a 21st century fighting machine.
 Threats against the Philippine state are increasing. In the 21st world, every state is vulnerable not only coming from terrorism but also possible aggressive actions against neighbouring states.
 The Philippine defence doctrine should be changed, from a purely insurgency-oriented one to increasing state and border security.
 Naval defence capability should be strengthened and enhanced with the acquisition of modern sea vessels capable of defending a large part of the territorial waters of the Philippines.
 Air defence capability should likewise be enhanced as an important component in AFP modernization.
 Intelligence capabilities should be enhanced with state-of-the art technology.

The State of the Nation under Arroyo

Over at the New Philippine Revolution, a new online news magazine blog, there is a comprehensive report on the State of the Nation Under Arroyo. This report assesses the Arroyo administration using the lenses of other think tanks. It is a unbiased assessment from the time she seized political power from former president Joseph Estrada to the time she addresses the nation and reports her achievements.

Support http://www.newphilrevolution.com. And the new Filipino user generated news blog http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com.

Manila archbiship Gaudencio Rosales today urged Arroyo to tell the truth. It's best, says Rosales, that Arroyo reveals the unblemished truth on the state of the nation so that everyone especially the next administration, would know what to do next.

But, will Arroyo heed the church call and show the Filipinos the true state of the nation? I doubt it, especially now that Mrs. Arroyo would face US president Barack Obama. Surely, that would spoil the broth, so to speak, since, as what the Washington Times said, echoing the previous statement by NPR, that the visit would just be a political subterfuge by Arroyo. Even the Americans know that it was a bad judgment call by the White House in inviting Arroyo. If they're so concerned with terrorism in Asia, the White House should have invited Indonesia instead.

Teofisto Guingona stands up once more

There comes a time when everyone, every Filipino, needs to decide, decide on what to sacrifice for the sake of his country. History would show that events of the greatest magnitude happen, when ordinary people decide to finally stand up and say "Enough is Enough!" And my friends, this is the time.

When people of all ages, of all ideological beliefs and of differing religious views unite together for the sake of the greater good, beautiful things happen. The last time that we truly did it was in 1986, when all of us, all of us, went to EDSA and side by side, faced the forces of tyranny. In those times, everyone, every single one of us, became Patriots.

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary sacrifices from ordinary people like us. We don't need heroes, for everyone has the power and the will to become one. And when thousands of us decide to stand up and be one with those who desire for change, change do happen, in an instant, in a blinking of an eye, we break the camel's back.

Tomorrow, former Vice President Teofisto "Tito" Guingona Jr. will once again stand up. At 10 o'clock tomorrow, at Club Filipino, Tito will announce something that will shake the very foundations of this evil regime. I admire this man. At 81 years old, Tito never fails to amaze even the strongest of us. Kung yung ibang ka-edad niya ay magreretiro na, Tito continues to fight for the Filipino.

The question of the day is---ikaw, tatayo ka ba at lalaban? Simula na!

Declaration of War Against Drugs an excuse for more sonas

Hay naku...again! Is this so-called "declaration of war against drugs", part of the administration's strategy to justify the sonas (special raiding operations) that the police and the PDEA would undertake in depressed areas in relation to the SONA?

It seems so since Malacanang had found a convenient excuse to rationalize so-called anti-drugs raids in depressed areas in Metro Manila. My sources in the urban poor groups say additional military and police personnel are frequenting their place more often than before. Why? It seems very suspicious since its only a few days before the State of the Nation Address (SONA). Are police and military elements targetting anti-Arroyo urban poor groups preparing for the biggest rally against Arroyo come July 27?

This validates my earlier entry on the planned sona activities of the police in depressed areas. Also, these areas are being militarized, in the name of anti-drugs campaigns. I just hope that Magdalo elements in PDEA will not allow themselves to be used as Mrs. Arroyo's version of Macoy's once dreaded police force.

Nograles Con-Ass

We're being fooled by Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. He says that he's not interested in con-ass when proposals to amend economic provisions of the 1987 Charter are slated to be discussed shortly after the SONA. Niloloko tayo ni Noggie the doggie.

(at right, Noggie the doggie seen here with presidential son Mikey " M2" Arroyo)

Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. has assured colleagues at the Senate and the public in general that the House leadership will not proceed with transforming Congress into a constituent assembly. He said this to allay fears of the public on con-ass. Yet, he said in the same vein, that the priority of the House is still charter change. So, that leaves people thinking---what is Nograles up to?

In fact, House Resolution 747 which seeks to amend the economic provisions of the charter is the top agenda of the House come July 27. So, what is Nograles saying that they're not turning the House into a constituent assembly, when their first order of business is the passage of this Resolution? Besides, technically, the house has been converted already into a constituent assembly the very moment Gloria gives her SONA. The conversion already started shortly after the passage of House Resolution 1106! Nograles does not need to publicly announce con-ass because they already did last June 2, 2009.

When the House discusses House Resolution 747 on July 27, that, in itself, is already a process of proposing amendments to the Constitution. That will fly based on the strength of House Resolution 1106. So, what Nograles is simply doing is what we call "word play."

Now, will the boycott of three senators change anything? Obviously, it will not. By the very act of assembling to hear Arroyo's speech both of Senators and Congressmen, that in itself, satisfies the constitutional prerequisite of a formal opening of the session of Congress. It does not take for Nograles to actually say that the House is now a Constituent Assembly. He and his allies only need for the President to give her speech and for the Speaker to announce that Congress is now in session. When they open the House for business, proposals to amend the Constitution will be accepted since a prior law already gave constitutional credence to it.

Mrs. Arroyo's Good News at the SONA

Why is the palace so confident that after the State of the Nation Address by Mrs. Arroyo, the people would now have a different take on her? What's the good news then?

You guessed right---Mrs. Arroyo would finally announce that she's not considering declaring martial law and she's definitely not interested on a third term. Yep. That's a paragraph or two in her SONA draft. And she'll also announce that the elections are really on.

There's a clincher though. A paragraph or two there says that " social changes ought to be done", implying that we need charter change. So, Mrs. Arroyo and her minions are still desirous of cha-cha. Another good news---Mrs. Arroyo would definitely say that it's not time for it and she'll let the next president do this.

The question is---why the sudden change? Was it because of the briefing that Panetta gave to Mrs. Arroyo? Is it because of Dennis Blair? Panetta would just laugh at this since the briefing was all about terrorism, and not the elections, says Teodoro.

Anyway, if this source of mine is right, then, I congratulate Mrs. Arroyo. At last, she woke up from her crazy dreams.

Charter Change And Martial Rule

Is it possible under the present circumstances, for Mrs. Gloria Arroyo to mix charter change with martial rule, as alleged by former ally Jose de Venecia Jr.?

Speaking before members of the diplomatic community at the Manila Polo Club, De Venecia gave diplomats a veritable security and political briefing on what's really happening. He confirmed earlier entries in NPR about the plan of Arroyo to call for a State of Emergency should Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. fails to sustain enough support to convene Congress into a Constituent Assembly.

As what I wrote here several weeks ago, August 6 is the date where all of these things would come to a head, or a week after Mrs. Arroyo's SONA. If Congress convene itself as an assembly, then, several scenarios are likely to happen:

1. Bombings in Mindanao would increase, with the administration again pointing to extremist groups as the ones responsible for the attacks. These bombings are diversionary tactics, meant to delude the public and ensure that another option remains available should public outrage comes to a decisive and explosive level.

2. Increased military and police checkpoints which they plan to set up a few days or the week of the SONA. This will be extended after the SONA, as they expect opposition to mount huge rallies shortly after the convening of Congress into a Constituent Assembly.

Now, what if Congress fails to convene itself into a Constituent Assembly?

1. Either a self-coup or a declaration of martial rule. A self-coup is more likely since failure to convene will surely diminish rallies against the administration. This coup would be mounted by several so-called reformists who will occupy several key government installations. They will then announce order and institute a revolutionary government with Arroyo as the head.

Arroyo will scrap the Constitution, convene a small group of constitutional experts and start the constitutional review. Shortly after that, they plan to institute preparations for parliamentary elections.

Mindanao hit by bombs: Selective State of Emergency?

" War is showbusiness. That's why we are here."

---Connie Bean, in the Movie "Wag the Dog", 1997

Another bomb exploded in Jolo, this time killing at least six people. A few hours after, a bomb also took off in Iligan. If we are to believe what the AFP says, these bombs incidents already hit the 40th mark.

The National Security Advisory Council has just been called by Mrs. Arroyo. They're expected to discuss the peace and order situation. Mindanao is a hot topic.

Filipino Observer (http://filipinoobserver.blogspot.com/) has a very good analysis on these things. Forces are at work here.

Uncanny that these bombs are going off in the midst of talks that government and the MILF have reached an agreement to go back to the negotiating table. Despite these, government thru Jesus Dureza and Peace adviser Sonny Razon insist that talks would push thru.

There is really a break down of peace and order in Mindanao. Previous to this, Metro Manila was also hit by bomb scares. Are we now to believe what former speaker Joe de Venecia said that these things are preliminary to the declaration of a State of Emergency?

At the very least, what I think government is trying to lay the groundwork on is selective declaration of a state of emergency. Mrs. Arroyo and her hawks would try their luck first on Mindanao, then, as SONA nears or a week after SONA, they'll experiment on this here in Metro Manila.

This could justify what Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro initially announced--that these things are still inadequate to justify a State of Emergency or martial rule. With all these bombings justify the plan of Mrs. Arroyo to stay a decade longer?

Be very vigilant. This regime is still trying to figure out how to circumvent what Washington said a few days ago. Mrs. Arroyo will simply not go down without a fight. What a pity.

The 9th SONA of Gloria

I don't want to sound like a fatalist or a believer in the occult arts, but I like to direct your attention to the date of Mrs. Arroyo's Ninth State of the Nation Address.

The date is July 27, 2009, right? July is the seventh month of the year. If you add 7 to 27, it becomes 34. Add 34 to 2, then 0, and another 0 and 9, what do you get? The sum would be 45, right? Add 4 and 5, and it comes out as 9.

Eerie, is'nt? The numerological equivalent of the date coincides with the number of times of Mrs. Arroyo's SONA. Even if you add 9 to 9, you'll get 18 which, add 1 and 8, it still produces 9.

What's the significance?

Nine symbolises the end. It presents a conclusion. It is also a mystical number to the Masons, ascribing it as the eternal number of humanity and also a number considered by many civilizations as a number expressing completion and humility.

In the Tarot, the number signifies completion of a cycle. While the Baha'i faith considers the number 9 as unity.

For us, truly, this ninth SONA of Mrs. Arroyo should be considered as the ending and the final show of the greatest pretender and destroyer of democracy in this country. And as always, when there's an end, renewal and change always follows.

I just pray that what follows after this SONA would not be another Arroyo. Or an Arroyo, albeit, in a totally different form but with the same devilish laugh.