Friday, February 29, 2008

A Mandate From Heaven



The PNP, the tuta ni Gloria, said that its only 15,000. Yet, the video above taken by an Inquirer reporter shows otherwise. There is, in fact, 80,000 people who took the challenge of PNP Chief Razon very seriously. These numbers are signs from above, a mandate from heaven, so to speak, for the immediate ouster of Gloria. Defenders of the palace were quick to downplay the obvious numbers that went to Ayala Makati City. They say that these people who want to oust Gloria are not reflective of the national sentiments of the people.

ABS-CBN shows otherwise. Filipinos from abroad and megacities in the Philippines have mobilized their forces in support of the big inter-faith rally in Makati. We expect though these so-called leaders to support Gloria because, under the present system, the palace controls the distribution of the purse.

As I wrote previously, this issue is not a political nor a legal issue. This is an issue of morality. When a people rejects their leader due to morality, all the more the concerned citizens, especially the elite, should move for the physical ouster of this leader. A leader should not only be intelligent; he or she should also be moral. Why? Because governance is all about ethical rule, not only on technicality. These people in government are being reposed of the trust especially in the handling of the people's money. If the people, who is the true representative of the collective will, move to depose a president, it should be heard instead of being dismissed as an action of an unruly and minority segment of the population.

The numbers are obvious. The people are tired of graft and corruption. They are tired of being gagged. They are very tired of being stopped in expressing their disgusts against Arroyo.

The only way for us to be saved from this political crisis is for Arroyo to gain her hiya once more and resign immediately.

Under the present circumstances, the people does not need the military's withdrawal of support. These generals are not nationalists. They are far from being conscious followers of the people's will.

What the people need are for the sergeants-majors and the junior officers to lead the movement for change. The Youth of today have spoken. As stakeholders of the country's future, the Youth knows that if they don't act now, their futures are being compromised.

For those who are members of my generation--are we not ashamed that the younger ones have taken the reins of the movement of change from us? We're supposed to be the leaders of this movement for change. We're supposed to do something for the Youth, not the Youth doing something for us. Woe to my generation! We must take into the streets and revolt. Now is the Time to Revolt.

I appeal to the True Patriots of the Filipino People--seize the reins of Fate. Create a glorious history. And God will look kindly on our people and pardon us from the sin of allowing a fake president to rule us and use our money for her own self-preservation.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

A Trap

The hands of de-escalation experts are now being felt in the light of the ZTE deal. A concerted effort to de-escalate the continuing and increasing momentum of groups opposing and asking for Arroyo's head through the media, mass organisations and established institutions is being implemented involving the highest down to the lowest rungs of the regime. Millions of pesos are being spent ostensibly to control and take charge of the situation. Some media personalities have been compromised. Traps are being laid out to diffuse the boiling situation.

One such trap is the highly publicized CBCP emergency meeting. Operators of the palace allowed the media to heighten public expectation for a stronger CBCP statement, knowing fully well that the CBCP is a traditional institution and will not issue a stronger political statement other than the call for communal action. Historically, the CBCP has been known to be conservative, even as far back as the time of Marcos. That's the reason why Manila's Cardinal Sin stood up in the first place because the CBCP can't commit itself to oppose Marcos.

So, those groups who still peg their support for an ouster call through a Church leadership should not be dismayed. Rather, read Aries Rufo's article at NewsBreak which tells you why the CBCP can't really issue a denouncement of Arroyo's regime.

Groups should highlight instead the growing mass movement for enlightenment among the citizenry. That, in the absence of a strong singular leadership, groups should still express their sentiments against this creeping conjugal greed. I believe it would take a while for this thing to blossom into "people power" but, like I said in my previous blogs, time is not on the side of those who favor Arroyo's head. 2009 is just around the corner and if groups fail to maintain momentum and gain sufficient numbers of persuasion, then, it would be all over.

Thus said, it is highly important that groups work for the massing up of at least 100,000 people come Friday. Why? Because it would show that despite these concerted efforts at derailing their initiatives, the people still went there to express their anger against Arroyo.

Tomorrow's Friday mass rally should be a shining moment for Philippine history. It should be the fullest expression of collective action by a people fed up with the lies, with the corruption, with graft and the filth of the human soul.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Higher forms of struggle

Okey, let me get this straight.

Gloria admitted having learned of the anomalies preceding the ZTE deal, a day before she signed the agreement. She told the public that she can't do anything about it then because she's already in Boao to meet with the Chinese president. Still, she managed to tell the Chinese president that she'll cancel the contract eventually.

Bull.

Sources said she already know about the anomalies weeks before when she met former NEDA Chief Romy Neri. Neri told her that Abalos was asking for an astronomical commission and that he's being given 200 million pesos just to agree on it. Right then and there, she could have nipped this thing right away? History shows that she did'nt. She allowed it to continue despite her NEDA chief saying that this deal is riddled by anomalies.

What will then happen to the DOTC officials and lackeys of hers who tried to defend the deal to the best of their abilities? What will happen to Monsod, who said that's the best deal and its not really anomalous? What about Mendoza, Formoso and the like? Their reputations have been tarnished. They have been all left in the lurch.

The admission happened to preempt a big revelation in the Senate. What revelation? The revelation to be made by two high government officials saying that the deal was tainted with corruption. Now that the "Boss" had admitted it, then, quo vadis?

How many ZTE deals do we have then? Allies of Gloria says she's the best there is, she's the only one we got, she's the leader, she says. If she's the person opt for the job, then, how many ZTE deals do we have then?

Gloria is telling us--okey, I made a mistake, so what then? Everybody makes mistakes. Tao lang po, she might have said.

Allies of Gloria are asking civil society, everyone of us, to just file the necessary charges and settle this thing in court. Bull. Or initiate an impeachment. Obviously, they still don't get it.

This issue is NOT a political issue. No. This is NOT EVEN a LEGAL issue. Quite simply, no.

This issue is decency and of morality. Will this be enough to depose a president? Yes! Gloria has proven that she has the tendency to succumb to the sparkle of big-time money. That she can be tempted too remains all too obvious here. How many such deals did she approved which she sacrificed her soul to? How many deals did she allowed to be approved despite being tainted by graft and corruption? How many things did she allowed to happen, orders to kill her detractors or mess their lives for the sake of her own survival?

Ousting a president is not just through legal infractions. We have the power to oust her simply because she has not been totally frank about government deals. There's simply no transparency here.

Are we to allow Gloria to continue bungling the job given to her by the people? Are we to allow her family to use government resources, millions or even billions, just to prop her administration up in times like these? They are spending money like there's no tomorrow, funding those rallies in defense of her administration. When will all of these things end?

People should now achieve a higher state of struggle. I am recommending that a civil disobedience be made to show Gloria that she has lost the mandate of the People. Civil disobedience could be:

1. Not paying VAT
2. Not supporting Donald Dee's companies
3. People showing up in places prohibited by the palace, like infront of Gate 1 or Gate 2 of Malacanang
4. Protesting infront or inside of venues where she's slated to speak
5. Tearing up replicas of the 200 peso bill
6. Giving statements to Congressmen, asking them to withdraw their support of Gloria
7. Hunger strikes
8. Labor strikes in companies known to support her
9. Discouraging people from eating at Mikey's, her son's restaurant along Diosdado Macapagal boulevard
10. Prayer vigils in AFP camps

You can suggest other forms of struggle which we can show to all and sundry that we need change and we want it fast. Time is not on the side of those seekers of the Truth. Gloria and her allies are bidding for time. We must not let them have their way this time.

Reflections

Snafus marked the 22nd year celebration of EDSA. One most significant was the snag in unfurling the Filipino flag. Alex Magno cynically remarked that snafus happen, those can't be avoided and we must not get too superstitious about it.

Well, I think Magno is well aware of how the Chinese view things political. They said that if God does'nt favor government anymore, signs in heaven are to be seen. In the last three weeks, we saw devastating natural disasters happening in areas where allies of Gloria reside. Are these the signs that we expect?

The military and police brass put forward a challenge to civil society. The challenge, they say, is for civil society to prove to them that, indeed, their commander-in-chief has lost the battle. Okey. Fair enough. What will they do then if 1 million people burst into the streets in the first week of March (the ides of March) and tell Gloria straight in her face that she has lost all moral authority to govern? Will they abandon her? I think not. They are too entrenched and too jaded. They too have lost the ability to see things in a different tack.

The CBCP will meet today to tackle the political issues of our era. Will they issue a stronger statement? Maybe. They saw how priests in their dioceses militate against the greed. Will, they too, join the calls for bigger demonstrations?

El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde said that he's in a period of reflection, obviously, studying the situation very keenly and thoroughly, as if his life depends on it. And it does really. Velarde is an opportunist. When he sees that the situation has changed quickly on the side of Gloria's enemies, he will issue the necessary statement. Or, he's just waiting for the CBCP to issue that statement?

Solita Monsod, that discredited economist who still support Gloria said she's not ready to go to the EDSA route again. Okey. So what? Media should not interview her again.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Why The People Should Not Expect An AFP Intervention

The presscon of the two Juniors

I was listening to the speeches and answers of AFP Chief Esperon and PNP Chief Razon, two "Juniors" so to speak of Gloria during their joint "spontaneous" press conference inside Camp Aguinaldo. Among those they said, Esperon's answers came as "refreshing" to me. He reiterated the AFP's support to the "Spirit of EDSA". A few minutes ago, during Ramos' media interview, Ramos reiterated the "Spirit of EDSA". Last week, JDV also told one media personality about the "Spirit of EDSA". Esperon was very categorical in saying that they support the Spirit of EDSA.

The Spirit of EDSA

During one interview, Esperon said that this time, this political crisis should be solved by civil society. The challenge, Esperon said, is for civil society to prove to the people their will to resolve the crisis. Esperon said that civil society must resolve this crisis through the constitutional processes, meaning, it should be through the democratic institutions which the AFP helped restore after the constitutional authoritarianism of the Marcos era.

I am always reading between the lines here. I always write about the motivations of people, why people actually said these things and why it was said during that time. And it strikes me that Ramos' speech (a prepared one) and Esperon's including Razon's were written in the same vein. I mean, it seems that both Ramos and Esperon have talked prior to this.

Instead of seeing the press conference as an attempt by Gloria to show the support of the AFP-PNP behind her administration, it should be seen as a DEPARTURE from the usual tactics of tower strengthening.

Gloria weaker now than before

It is now very clear to me that Gloria is actually weaker than what people perceive. Since the call is a New Brand of People Power, this new breed will not involve the security forces. This crisis will be left for the civilian authorities to resolve themselves. The AFP and PNP are solidly behind the Filipino People, that is very evident. This is a GOOD SIGN. Why?

Fence-sitting AFP and PNP more dangerous to Gloria

A fence-sitting AFP and PNP is MORE DANGEROUS to Gloria than a WITHDRAWAL OF SUPPORT. Why? Because that's a sign that she's left without defense. That she's now as vulnerable as she was in 2005.

See it in a different light

We must see all of these events in a different light. EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 happened when the military broke the chain of command and supported the Filipino People in the rallies. Now, we will see none of the announcement of withdrawal of support. We will see a purist form of EDSA where the resolution will not be through the parliament of the streets. No.

Resolve through Constitutional Means

Rather, the resolution of this crisis will be resolved in the backrooms of Malacanang. Intense pressure from civil society, religious, business groups and Youth groups will make Gloria resign or, the most logical conclusion is put forward a letter handing over the reins of power to her constitutional successor due to inability to dispense her functions.

Impeachment? Again?

Senate President Manny Villar put forward impeachment. This is a vain attempt at resolving the issue since this impeachment will just be junked by a Kampi-dominated Congress.

Resignation is more acceptable

What is more potent than this and more logical is for Gloria to resign and hand over government to Noli. Why? First, that would be the most acceptable "change" that the oligarchs and the rich could tolerate. Forget about revolution. It cannot be done in the present dispensation. Admit it---we are dominated by a non-conscientious oligarchic system.

The New Form of EDSA

The new form of EDSA is a form wherein crisis will not be influenced by a military intervention. Again, I will reiterate my prognosis that this will be resolved PEACEFULLY, no coups, no withdrawal of support, no military intervention. It will be quick and bloodless. This is the newest breed of EDSA and would be the purest expression of People Power.

Gloria will be forced to go on leave and hand over power to a care-taker government to be headed by the Vice President.

The Spirit Of EDSA

Today's celebration of EDSA 1 at the EDSA Shrine was a veritable loyalty check for the AFP. Noticeably, the crowd was not there, as if EDSA was hijacked by the usual opportunists. Those who were on the other side of the fence so to speak, those who fence-sit and those who even mocked EDSA were there on stage. The legitimate owners of EDSA, the people, civil society and people's organizations were left out.

Joey Concepcion spoke and said that EDSA right now has been transformed into an economic one, that we should put a stop at EDSA and instead concentrate on empowering our people through economic initiatives. Good. But not good enough. Yes, we had achieved economic growth but the gains of the economy has not trickled down to the masses.

Fidel V. Ramos, one of the original architects of EDSA one, said it very accurately: The Spirit of EDSA is still there in the hearts and minds of all of us. He says that EDSA One came about in three stages:

(1) Conscientization
(2) Individual actions
(3) Communal actions

His speech was laced with symbolisms and hidden messages. He says that conscientization has started. We are now witnessing individual actions. Very soon, we will then see a convergence of individual actions into one big communal action.

Truly, the Spirit of EDSA is still there. The values of EDSA one continues burning in the hearts of everyone. What we must do is for everybody to continue doing these individual actions so that it would ripen into People's Revolutionary Action for DemocracY (PRAY).

Why Gloria was not there

Gloria was not an active participant of the first EDSA. No. She was just a fence-sitter. Same as her husband, Mike Arroyo. She does not believe in EDSA. And it is but fitting for her not to be there.

I think the real reason why Gloria was not there is simple---she wants to avoid another confrontation with FVR. She experienced this at the Libingan ng mga Bayani where the former president lambasted her.

VP with FVR

While Verano was singing the usual EDSA songs, FVR was seen talking with the VP. What was the discussion, it will be just speculation on our part. Where's the loyalty of the vice president?

Analysts see no coup

Criselda Yabes wrote that the possibility of a coup is remote. I believe her. I also think that a coup is not the penultimate result of all of these actions being undertaken by the people. This is not within the framework of a new brand of EDSA.

I believe the next big thing would solely be a pure EDSA---the kind that will once revel the world of its Godly majesty and pomp. The people will act to depose Gloria without the help of the AFP-PNP. If the defense of Gloria crumbles, then the people will be able to launch a scathing revolt against her.

The crumbling of the Bastille is imminent if, and only if, the defenders of Gloria STAND DOWN. And I think they will. They will eventually stand down without announcing a withdrawal of support.

This new brand of EDSA that we will see in the next few days will be totally different. It will be the purest expression of the People's Will. It will be the end of the revolution that Bonifacio and the Katipuneros started in 1898, which continued against foreign oppression in 1946 and culminated in 1986.

The next big thing will happen in 2008.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

God Save Lakas Plan

Why all of a sudden, groups unite and call for the resignation of Gloria. Why the estrangement of relations between Gloria and JDV, one of the political timbers composing Lakas-CMD. Here's the thing: whatever is happening now would definitely lead to Gloria's ouster, either forcefully or thru resignation. Groups are supporting this call for obvious reasons--this is the only way for Lakas-CMD and those forces more powerful than Gloria to survive a post-2010 scenario. This is part of a bigger plan to God Save Lakas.

Gloria: sacrificial midget

Gloria is being sacrificed now for the sake of the survival of the main traditional party, Lakas. Why? Obviously, Gloria has become a liability for the generals and oligarchs who comprise the State. A still surviving Gloria will not defeat the force of the opposition come 2010. Anyone whom Gloria gives her blessing will definitely suffer ignominious defeat. It is therefore very safe to assume that an Estrada-led opposition will be a hands-down winner come 2010. The low ratings and the very visible lack of public support for Gloria are indications that things will not turn the way Lakas wants it to be. In fact, Gloria realized this that she's being sacrificed early on in the game. That's why she was doing her own political machinations thru Kampi. However, Lakas is an entrenched party already. In fact, Lakas is more than a party. It has been patterned into the Philippine version of Lee Kuan Yew's party.

More on this...got to go...have a meeting.

Here We Go Again

My friend, Fel Maragay wrote an interesting piece today. He said that the opposition is backing away from calls for Gloria's resignation. What struck me was the statement of Loren Legarda which says that the reason why she's not calling for Gloria's ouster is that "the alternative might be worse".

Hello, Loren, you are out of bounce.

Despite what you think about Noli, Noli is in a better position to succeed Gloria for three reasons: First, he enjoys the trust and confidence of a huge majority of our people. He's well respected among the Muslims and non-Muslim segment of the population.This is the main reason why we must support him.

Second, during his time at the Senate, he did'nt hug the headlines nor debated much against fellow senators. He just worked his butt off compared to you. And third, he's the most hard-working vice president I have ever seen. He gave hope to Filipinos who aspire to have their own homes. He managed to lower interest rates and down-payments. Before, its really difficult even for a government employee to buy a house. Now, the possibilities are there.

Have you questioned yourself Loren? What have you achieved so far in your checkered political career? You had this Luntiang Kalikasan. Had it amounted to anything? No. I don't recall any law that you sponsored that really made an impact in my life. Do you have any executive post experience? No. You started your career strong by gunning at the senate.

People from your circle think that Noli has no brains. You're wrong. Noli has the intellectual capability to cross swords with diplomats, businessmen and politicians. Besides, we don't need intellectuals like you who pretend to know the solution but has the tendency to be the source of the problem later on.

Will I go on? What happened to your home? What happened to your supposed marriage with Leviste? Are you really the legitimate wife of Leviste? Is Leviste your legitimate husband? Where is your legitimate husband?

Before these self-moralizing politicians like Loren open their mouths, they should look at themselves first. Before they even shudder at the thought of a Noli presidency, they need to unite first with other groups and work for the ouster of this president. If they don't do it, then, palace men will definitely do it themselves.

A Clarion Call

Seven years of continuous state tyranny and repression have numbed most of us to apathy. Some of those who hold the torch for democracy and freedom have either relegated themselves to the desks of everyday mundane existence. Some pushed on, with only a glimmer of hope left in their hearts. Others succumbed along the way, either to survive by going to bed with the enemy or worst, suffered the end of every revolutionary--death in the hands of evil.

For those who still hope for the best in this country. For those who still harbour even an iota of hiya in themselves. For those who want to see a clean government, devoid of self-serving policies and interests, only serving the people, this is a clarion call for you.

Stand up and be counted. Rise up oh You Patriots of the New Generation and create history.

Our futures are not in the hands of the church. No.

Our children's futures are not to be played with by the Military. No.

Our children's children are not to be manipulated by the wiles of the rich and the middle class. No.

We rise up as one because it is the most decent thing to do. We stand against tyranny and corruption because it is the most rational thing to do. We will march because that's our responsibility, not only as citizens of this country, but it is the responsibility of every human.

We feel our humanity by being with others who have laid down their lives for the sake of the future. We can only say we are human if we oppose the animalistic acts of those who lead us. We are human because we oppose every Machievellian interests, every barbaric violations of our decency and sensitivities.

We rise as a People because some of us mocked what we did at EDSA twenty two years ago. We need to show these people that we, as a race, are not barbarians. We respect law, truth and justice. We are not their kind. We are not thieves. We are not robbers of futures. We are creators.

For those who still seek the truth, stop.

The Truth has been shown. We have discovered the Truth already. And the truth is:

This regime does not respect us as a People. They respect only themselves.
This Regime does not respect our rights. They trample them everyday.
This Regime only respects money and worship the Mammon. They are devoid of God.
This Regime needs cleansing.

We need Justice Now. The Truth has been laid bare for all of us to see. Now, what do we do about it?

We rise as a Nation, create another spectacle and lay down the foundations of a New Philippine Revolution!

Onward the Youth. Rise up oh Patriots of the Bagong Katipunan. Rise up the downtrodded and the toothless. Rise up and show the world how it is to be a Filipino.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Now is the Time

“History might yet call for us again to make further sacrifices to offer our lives on the altar of our civic ideas,”

Thank you Tabako. You never failed us. I salute you, my General.

Now, its show time.

An Open Letter to Tabako, part 2

Dear Tabako,

I read that you're intending to go to the EDSA Shrine because, like Ed Malay told the media, "you're for the status quo for lack of a better alternative."

So, you believe that Arroyo is the best and only person to lead this country? You believe that given the thousands of intellectuals this country has, the thousands of excellent economists, the thousands of able-bodied and youthful and promising politicians around, you still believe that "there's no better alternative" and " Ramos is still for the status quo"?

So, all this vision of yours--Lakas Tao--is merely for propaganda, for positioning. You, who inspired millions of us to work hard, to work honestly and to work only for the benefit of the country during your administration, are still not convinced that there's no better alternative and its best to stick to Gloria? Despite what Gloria did against Lakas? Despite the political machinations that her allies did, wrecking your rainbow coalition and nearly transforming your once-dominant party into an insignificant shell?

So, there's no better alternative to what? Is there no alternative to a lying, stealing, cursing and killing administration? What is the alternative to this? Are you saying that you favor the cheating, the lying, the kidnapping, the chaos this administration has promoted all these years? Are you saying that we're still okey despite thousands being killed, millions more being violated of their basic rights and millions more being robbed of their hard-earned monies by ravenous and rapacious forces of Arroyo? Is this the vision of Ramos? Is this type of governance your standard, your vision?

I've admired you since you became president. You, Cory and Estrada are just three of the personalities whom I consider legitimate presidents and leaders after Marcos. It was under your administration that we achieved peace and economic stability. It was under your able stewardship that we, the people, felt safe. Yes, you had your share of intrigues. Yes, people accuse you of some graft cases. Yet, people can't deny that you had the vision, you are legit, and you worked hard to stabilize our situation.

I really shudder at the thought that you still tolerate the excesses of this administration. Have you now relegated yourself to that state during Marcos time when you kept your silence and exploded only at the last minute, when all things seemed to be ending? I hope you do that. I hope that you do the right thing sir and preserve your legacy for posterity. I still hold faith that you will.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

The Smell of Change

Everyone knows that this regime is coming to an end. You can see it. You can feel it. You can even hear the shouts of a people waiting to be liberated from all the filth, all the corruption that this administration has tolerated for over seven years.

With a brave face, Gloria announced that she'll survive this latest actions against her government. Her classmates, her friends, her family and some of her cabinet members have all said that she'll weather the current political maelstrom. While they say all these things with a brave face, reality hit them hard. Those who did not merge together before, have now united against her. Civil society groups, business groups, finance managers, entrepreneurs, doctors, lawyers, youth groups, and even society matrons have united against her. Texts are proliferating everyday and everywhere saying that some segments of the military will join the People's Marches For Truth. If this, indeed occurs, then, people should not be surprised since military men are among those hardest hit by the creeping poverty engulfing our country.

People are starting to protest and take to the streets almost everyday, as if there's a countdown towards the end. February 29 seems to be the date where collective expression of dissent against Arroyo will come to its highest crescendo and it's quite obvious. The Youth are being organized. Law students are also going to march, with businessmen, clergy and the common tao. There seems to be one common goal--the ouster of Arroyo.

I nearly cried when Sister Mary John Mananzan was asked by Korina Sanchez and Ted Failon over DZMM's Ted and Korina Show this morning. The good nun was asked if she believes that these things will succeed against Arroyo. Sister Mananzan said that she does'nt know. But, one thing is for sure and she believes this with all her heart and soul--The Holy Spirit moves and works in very mysterious ways to correct the wrongs wrought by the Arroyo cabal in this beloved country. Will the Holy Spirit, did, indeed work for the welfare of the Filipino People this time?

I share the opinion of the good nun. I believe there's always a definitive ending for the wicked. In Job 15:20-24, here's what the Good Book said:

" The life of the wicked is unceasing torment,
the years allotted to the tyrant are numbered.
The danger signal ever echoes in his ear,
in the midst of peace the marauder swoops on him.
He has no hope of fleeing from the darkness,
but knows that he is destined for the sword,
marked down as meat for the vulture.
He knows that his ruin is at hand.
The hour of darkness makes him terrified;
distress and anguish close in on him,
as though some king were mounting an attack.

People, businessmen and companies have put their stake to the ouster of Arroyo. These people know that they can't turn their back on this. They are struggling for victory. They all want to succeed. Its a make or break for the people, especially those who already aired their disgusts against Arroyo. Arroyo, therefore, is now at the losing side because she cannot really stop these people from demanding her head. Arroyo must think very hard and save herself from the impending onslaught. She's now neutralized and it is only a matter of time before something very big happens that would force her from her throne at the Pasig river.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

The End of a 7-year Itch

Philippine events are beginning to interests skeptics like me. Since the failed 2005 attempt, I have turned into a skeptic because of the fact that previous events having the same emotional content as what I'm seeing right now had happened before with disastrous results. After the dust has settled, I saw a triumphant PGMA rising above everyone else. It was like a massacre. Political operators of Arroyo succeeded in neutralizing these forces, either using carrots or threats. Those who struggled against Arroyo were left in the lurch. Some lost all hope and decided to just reintegrate themselves in society by having a job somewhere else. What it achieved is that it left Malacanan without a conscience because almost all idealists who struggled with Arroyo at EDSA Dos resigned in their posts. Those who remained are technocrats or political operators who owe allegiance to Mr. Arroyo instead of being in government due to political principles.

The failed attempt also emboldened Arroyo and her gang of thieves. More and more cases of graft and corruption were reported. Since these people were allowed to rob, steal, and even kill opponents or those who shout against what they're doing, they contributed more to the dysfunctionalism that ensued. The Arroyo administration felt that no one can stop them. They saw themselves as invincible. The death of dissent all the more gave these grafters the space they need to continue stealing and robbing the people of their monies.

The intolerance being shown by this administration to criticisms and critiques could be the thing that could lead to its downfall. Its penchant for killing dissent and dissenters is now haunting them like crazy.

Now, people are starting to enjoy their newly-found voice. Seven years of silence, of tolerating every false move, every robbery of this adminitration has decidedly come to an end. Far from the claims of this administration that people are tired of marching and going to EDSA, Filipinos now are beginning to march to the streets again, trying to give this thing another chance. Every one knows that if these things do not come to a decisive conclusion, which, in this instance, is the ouster of Arroyo, they will not have that chance again.

Every day, groups have started marching, showing this government of their collective disgusts on what had happened. Lozada's testimony, though devoid of any documentary evidence, has been accepted as gospel truth. This is not a media spin nor a product of PR. No. People believed Lozada because they have lost every shred of trust in their government. In normal times, such characters as Lozada would have found it very difficult to even say such things to Arroyo. If the ZTE deal happened in 2001 or 2002, people would not even gave it a second's notice.

The palace must accept the truth---it has lost its mandate. Mandates do not emanate from ballots. No. Mandates are based upon the people's trust. A distrusted government does not have a mandate since the sovereign will is of the people's and not of Arroyo's and her lapdogs.

Executive Secretary Ermita today criticized civil society's call for change. Justice Secretary Gonzales even called those who oppose Arroyo as members of "evil society". These closet individuals are trying their hand at villification which, unfortunately, fail every time they open their blistered mouths.

If these mass mobilizations continue, I am inclined to believe what Sis. Mananzan of St. Scholastica and Dela Salle president Armin Luistro said--all these will lead to something major or bigger. It is inevitable. I believe them. They know the pulse of the people and the effects of their current activities to the middle class. I will believe them rather than self-proclaimed political analyst Peter Lim who said that it would be next to impossible to oust Arroyo. Mr. Lim, I do believe in the power of prayer and of karma. Nature's laws dictate that those who do evil deeds will reap the same force of evil that they have sowed. This seven-year itch to get rid of a tumour such as Arroyo is beginning to grow and take shape. It would not be long before this "itch" ends. And it ends Now.

Terrorism being used by Arroyo for political purposes

Now, my fears have been validated. The desperate Arroyo administration is using the terrorism bogey to deflect its political woes. That's the problem of having an administration like this. How can you now believe the seriousness of their anti-terror campaign when its quite obvious that factotums and slum-bags of this government is using every Muslim cadaver that they can find to make "papogi" (beautify) before the international community! A regional anti-terror expert Sidney Jones does not believe that a cadaver exhumed in Tawi-Tawi is that of Dulmatin. We are also not in a position to really determine if that body is indeed that of Dulmatin, but even if it was, look at the lame reaction of the people. Nothing! Even the US government doubts the authenticity of the government's claim that it was indeed the terror leader's body.

This is the effect of having a beleaguered government leading the fight against terrorism in this country. Reputation and integrity are two of the most important things that every government needs to really and seriously lead the fight against terror.

I believe it is in the best interest of countries like the United States and Britain to support moves to oust or replace this government. As I wrote in previous blogs, this administration remains as the weakest link to the fight against terror in the region. This government is just good in terrorizing its citizens; it is helpless in really combatting the spread of terrorist ideology in its territory.

It is time for the US to really convince Arroyo to step down. A stronger government is needed to really counter terrorism in the Philippines. Without this, it would be very hard for the global community of nations to claim victory over Jemaah Islamiya or ASG or Al Qaeda because there's one very weak link in the fight against terrorism.

New Brand of People Power

Six years ago, I was fortunate to share my thoughts on the program "Debate" over Channel 7. That early, I told the crowd that the core problem lies in our system. This Western system which we adopted does not suit the psyche of the Filipino. Essentially, we are a decent and honest race. Yet, this system tolerates graft and corruption.

We must redeem what we lost and that is HIYA. I can't translate this Filipino term to English because there is no English equivalent of this word. But i'll try for the benefit of our English readers.

For a Filipino, hiya means having the decency to refrain from doing acts which would wittingly or unwittingly do harm against another being. Hiya means being decent and being equitable. For example, in the ZTE deal, pro-administration groups say let's settle this in court since, as admitted by Lozada he does not have any documents to show that his meetings transpired with all these officials he has named before the public.

What the CBCP wants to tell the public for a new brand of people power is this---we need a different kind of action that would re-institute this gem of a trait that we lost as a people. The CBCP did not, I say again, did not say that we must not mass up to change this system. No. In fact, the statement categorically says that the people must act to change this system.

The CBCP only says that this new kind of people power should probably NOT follow the constitutional process. I propose the following alternatives:

1. Form a Coalition government, centered on a Council which will be composed of the following personalities:

A Council of Senior Advisers to be composed of former president Cory Aquino, Fidel V. Ramos and Joseph Estrada
An Executive Council which will be headed by Senate President Manny Villar. This Council shall be composed of the following posts:
Director of National Defense---Teodoro
Director of Education--------
Director of Finance
Director of Trade and Industry
Diirector of Tourism
Director of Internal Relations
Director of Foreign Relations

Cause-oriented groups are to composed the Committees.

This new brand of People Power should aim to cleanse every department of government.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Why Gloria wear Red

For some days now, Gloria has been seen wearing red. Red, as they say, signifies war. Sources say strategists of the palace advised Gloria to wear red to show that she's tough, that she's determined to stay in power and that she's on a war path. Ermita even pointed this out during Malacanang's press con today.

Bull.

What red signifies is, according to Isaiah 1:18 is SIN. So, does it mean that Gloria admits or show to the public that she's full of sin because of her lying, stealing and cursing acts since the start of her administration? Gloria's wearing red is a direct admission that she's a lying and sinful person that needs "whitening" or "cleansing."

Those who oppose Gloria should not wear black nor red. They should always wear white or yellow because these colours signify being clean, being moral. They should provide or show the public that they are the anti-thesis of Gloria.

Truth is parallel--Propaganda War to Attract the Powerful Neutrals (Or those who have'nt taken sides yet)

It was not a good day for JLo today. Pressed by the Senate to reveal what transpired during the December 7 meeting, Lozada was quite adamant in telling the truth. Some understood this to mean that Lozada values his deep friendship with CHED Chairman Romulo Neri who still refuse to disengage from the Arroyo administration. People have been asking Neri to resign. Neri refuses to bulge in his seat, because, as he told the media before the press conference in Malacanan, he still sees hope for Arroyo to finally act and address the issues on graft and corruption. Hope, as they say, springs eternal.

Now, Malacanan has allowed the Ombusman and the DOJ to conduct parallel investigation about the ZTE deal. This move is not diversion. It is premised on the assumption that truth is relative. In effect, Malacanan wants this fight before the media. They will be using these government institutions to refute the allegations made by Lozada. By authorizing these government bodies to investigate, they want two (2) things to be accomplished: First, they want the people to know the "other side" of this issue. Since the DOJ and the Ombusman have the power to investigate and prosecute, Malacanan hopes to neutralize the Senate probes and probably dilute its impact. And second, since they command the machinery and the purse, the cabal in Malacanang hopes to slowly deprive the anti-Arroyo groups of their momentum, which is very, very crucial at this stage of the game.

As I said in this blog, TIME is NOT a luxury for the anti-Arroyo groups. The longer it takes for them to organize and reorganize, the more this administration becomes embolden to push and push until again, they conquer their enemies. What this administration has that their enemies does'nt is this---this administration is very patient. They also move in a tactical manner. Every move that they do, its calibrated to achieve a result, which, by the way, is NOT the ultimate result but just a part of one continuous series of movements. Observing their moves, this administration would do the following:

a. Strengthen media exposure of these parallel investigations to provide the public an alternative venue. Bear in mind that this struggle is all about the POWERFUL NEUTRALS---Filipinos who are still waiting in the wings or those at the sidelines, waiting for the dust to settle and see who comes out still standing. Malacanang's plan of having parallel investigations are meant to persuade the middle forces and dissuade those in the other side but maintains a certain affinity with Arroyo.

b. Internal dissension among anti-Arroyo groups. They would try to infiltrate the ranks of the dissenters and dissuade those who are in command positions. Talks would definitely be opened among these groups.

c. Try to bolster the ranks of supporters of Arroyo. This has been evident by the surge of attendees from the local governments to the palace.

How to counter the palace moves

First, groups should continue silent organizing. The Youth should be mobilized to rally behind the Movement for a Graft-Free Philippines. Or, try to organize a Conscience Movement or in Filipino means Kaliwanagan Movement. These groups should not telegraph their moves before the media. Every move now should be concealed and should be compartamentalized.

Second, groups should create sub-issues or sub-stories from the Lozada revelations. This is to sustain and animate public interest about the issue. There should be a stage when the discussion assumes a more and higher plane, like, documents should be shown about the ZTE, lives disrupted should be highlighted, etc. These moves should be sustained to a point until military support has been achieved.

Very crucial in all these is military support. I am very certain that certain segments of the military will indeed rise up to fight this administration. I am quite sure that the Patriotic elements of the AFP are prepared and would strike anytime now.

Trump cards

Jesus is Lord Movement Leader Bro. Eddie Villanueva is right on target when he asked the five leaders of the country--Arroyo, De Castro, Villar, Puno and Nograles--to meet and resolve this snowballing movement against Arroyo. Villanueva said that to avoid bloodshed, these leaders should talk and craft a graceful exit for Arroyo. Why did Villanueva suggested this thing?

Because this early, governors and local executive allies of Arroyo just flocked to the palace Sunday to organize a rally of support for the beleaguered Arroyo. Unwittingly, they are creating a civil war scenario which is not good for the entire country. Arroyo may have realized that this is the trump card of both Marcos and Erap which they failed to use during their administrations. Marcos organized late in the game, with his supporters massing up inside the palace while Erap used the masses and mobilized them but the sheer number of organized civil society simply overwhelmed them.

Arroyo is still powerful among local executives and still hold very close to her chest the military ace. However, sources very close to the AFP says that even this, Arroyo is fast losing. She's now being flanked in all sides and it is pointless for her to do anything now since the speed of which civil society is organizing its ranks would definitely overwhelm all her and her allies' efforts at countering any movements against her administration.

CPP-NPA-NDF leader Joma Sison is correct in his prognosis of the situation. Civil society will be able to successfully oust her if they continue their organizing efforts. Arroyo would probably use the strength of the military to quell it yet this thing I believe, will continue to its most logical conclusion--the ouster of Arroyo.

Time Play

A recent SWS survey says that Filipino memory only last for 2.5 days. Meaning, if there is any controversy, Filipinos only take a serious and close look at it for nearly 3 days. The survey however, does not state what happens after 2.5 to 3 days. It just says how long short term memory lasts for Filipinos.

That's why it is most crucial for those who want to resolve this Lozada episode to act expeditiously before anything bad happens. For the administration, for this thing to come to a stop, it must be transparent and feed to the lions so to speak, the main characters of this issue. The recent decision to make FG attend the Ombusman hearings does not help. Neither is the apparent pressure for Neri not to attend the Senate hearings. If this administration wants to nip this thing in the bud, it must act now. This is not, anymore, a media play. It has taken a life of its own, independent of what the media is saying.

For the pro-Lozada camp, it must act now to generate more steam so to speak, to be able to sustain the momentum that the Lozada testimony has created. Time, unfortunately, is not on the side of the anti-Arroyo camp, mainly because the nature of these things need speed and timing.

Sources say both camps are in the thick of negotiations. There are suggestions of an Arroyo graceful exit, with Vice President Noli de Castro assuming as president while a snap elections is being prepared. This is acceptable to anti-Arroyo groups, since De Castro has a high acceptability rating and perceived to be least corrupt among Cabinet members of the Arroyo regime. Publicly, Arroyo has said that she'll not step down and will continue serving until her term ends in 2010.

I believe that mass mobilizations will continue this week prior to the celebration of EDSA Uno, which anti-Arroyo groups say is the Original EDSA. Today will be most crucial because Arroyo is in her most weakest and most vulnerable state. First, influential groups have joined the fray against her, including both the religious and business. And second, grass-roots organizing has started, with the support of Catholic schools, the main ingredient of any EDSA revolt. Even if Arroyo uses the full strength of the military and police in neutralizing these groups, it will NOT BE SUCCESSFUL because ANY OPPRESSIVE ACT COMING FROM THE STATE RIGHT NOW WOULD IMPACT ON THE INTERNATIONAL IMAGE OF THE ARROYO ADMINISTRATION.

Ergo, groups should pursue this thing to its logical conclusion which is the OUSTER OF ARROYO prior to EDSA Uno celebrations. If it fails to generate mass support or slacken along the way, then, these groups would be more susceptible to counter-revolutionary measures and probably, more oppressive actions coming from Arroyo. Hence, the time to act is NOW.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Incendiary situation on Friday

Three elements--oxygen, wood (or any flamable material) and spark--constitutes fire. This coming Friday is very critical and incendiary to say the least for this administration due to the confluence of three events:

1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.

The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.

As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.

If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.

Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:

1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.

If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.

And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.

Cha-cha train pushes through the dark night

Amidst controversy over the ZTE graft probe, Malacanang, as predicted, pushed through with the charter change train. Former Presidential Chief of Staff Joey Salceda led the charge Tuesday despite some protestations on the timing of the campaign. So, the cha-cha train pushed through the dark night.

This confirms my earlier writings that this entire shembang--the neutralization of Lakas, the ouster of JDV, the election of Nograles, the incarceration of opponents and the apparent coolness of the palace in the ZTE drama--are components of the palace plan for charter change. Ramos has just said last year that cha-cha is too late in the game because any change initiative now would be misinterpreted by the people as a veiled attempt at power perpetuation. Groups, particularly the Opposition, have said time and again that they would oppose cha-cha done at this time.

What all these indicate?

The palace is drunk with power. Because of the inability of people's organizations and the middle class to rise against it, it has been transformed into a whole gigantic mafia organization that has the capability of destroying everything that would try to block its way. It is now flexing its muscles, like a great fire-mouthing dragon, ready to engulf its enemies. This cha-cha campaign shows how resilient and determined this administration is in its attempts at prolonging the term of Arroyo beyond 2010.

This is war.

Groups said that the reason why they are not all out in opposing Arroyo is that it is averting civil war. Well, their silence or their somewhat "critical collaboration" stance has now embolden Arroyo and her cohorts so much so that Arroyo thinks that she is invincible. Groups should now rise over partisan interests and if they are really dead serious in their opposition to cha-cha now, they should coalesce and form a strong front to fight Arroyo.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Gaining the Pulse

The Makati Business Club is reported to have been consulting with different groups. They want to be sure if they would call for the ouster of Arroyo. It seems that different groups are now uniting for one goal--call for change.

Last night, the hand of palace operators are evident in the media. In ANC, they featured mostly the stand of government. The palace even twisted the call of the CBCP, from "collective action" to "collective prayer". Malacanang is betting everything to calm down the situation.

I've watched the Senate hearings with a couple of masa and everybody is angry with what has happened with ZTE. The lost of trust in institutions of governance is evident among the faces of the masa. I've also consulted with taxi drivers. I always consider them as invaluable in getting the pulse of the masa. Cab drivers are the most politicized among the masa, since they listen to the radio everyday and always banter with their passengers, asking them about what they think about this ZTE probe.

And it is VERY, VERY EVIDENT---THERE IS NOW A REVOLUTIONARY SITUATION! THERE IS A SWELLING UNDERGROUND OF DISSENT JUST WAITING FOR ANOTHER SPARK FROM THE ENLIGHTENED CLASS!!

What would be the next steps?

The next steps should be the following:

a. Different groups should organize their ranks and continue silent organizing among the powerful neutrals
b. Propaganda efforts should be effected to counter the increasing influence of the palace in traditional media. New Media should be utilized.
c. A series of incidents should be effected in the metropolis to further show the people's disgusts, for without this, there is a possibility of armed confrontation among the people involved.

The people is just waiting for the true patriots to lead the way. It is not true that the people is not affected by all of these. No. They are not tired of EDSA. They need true leaders now to guide them and lead them towards the struggle for Truth and Justice.

Now is the time.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Massaging the media

The palace machinery has started massaging the media. Look at what is appearing on television and on the papers. The media is reporting mostly on the stand of government. In fact, most of the testimony of the palace witnesses are spin instead of fact. And it is very evident that their testimonies are rehearsed and mostly spin.

I appeal to my colleagues in the media--side with the truth. For if the palace successfully air or print their spin, that will worsen this issue. Huwag tayong magpagamit sa palasyo.

As I wrote here, the media is the last bastion of Philippine democracy. If the media allows itself to be used by palace media operators, the media will unwittingly allow itself to justify further oppressive state actions.

Lozada's story

This is what we have gleaned from the senate investigations so far:

1. Jun Lozada or "J-lo" as what some sectors refer to him, was tasked by his bosom buddy NEDA Secretary Neri to mediate in the NBN deal. Lozada was tapped since he is an IT engineer.
2. Lozada entered the picture during the time that NEDA was reviewing the project. The DOTC needs the NEDA recommendation since it is the procedure dictated by law.
3. Lozada met both parties--the ZTE people who won the bid and Amsterdam Holdings. ZTE people wants a government loan while Amsterdam Holdings want to build NGN through a BOT (Build and Operate Transfer). Both groups have very strong backers--Amsterdam Holdings have Joey de Venecia, the son and namesake of the Speaker of the House--and ZTE has Abalos, who was then COMELEC chairman.
4. Between these two titans is Lozada. Lozada was the middle man so to speak. He was the mediator whom Neri tasked to "moderate their greed". For Neri, moderating means about 20-30% of the contract price.
5. Chairman Abalos, the person who orchestrated the anomalous win of Arroyo in the 2004 elections, felt powerful. He holds an ace against the president since he knows how government operators acted during the 2004 elections. Since he is also very close to the First Gentleman, being his "padrino" behind his appointment to the Comelec is near retirement. He wants something. He needs some money for his retirement.
6. Chairman Abalos brokered a deal with the ZTE. He also told FG that he'll have at least 70 million dollars from this deal. There are others who will "earn" from the expected 130million dollars commission which Abalos wants from this deal.
7. Lozada, meanwhile, reported to Neri. Neri told Lozada to moderate the greed of Abalos. When Lozada told Abalos about this, he then called FG. FG called back and assured Abalos that the palace will do everything possible for the deal to continue.
8. Neri then came to Arroyo. Neri told Arroyo of what Abalos is doing, even offering him bribe money amounting to 200 million pesos. Arroyo reportedly told him not to accept the money but approve the project anyway. Neri did what was asked of him and approved the ZTE deal, under the guise that it should be done under the BOT scheme, not a government loan. This is also the recommendation of Lozada.
9. Upon knowing this, Abalos went ballistic and called Lozada. He threatened Lozada with death and cursed him. Lozada became fearful for his life since that time.
10. When Arroyo went to Boao and signed the agreement, the deal suddenly turned from BOT to government loan. Before Arroyo planed to China, a press conference was held by the losing bidder, protesting about the project.
11. JDV's friend and columnist Jarius Bondoc then wrote the ZTE deal in his columns. The Inquirer also wrote a special report about the ZTE deal. Slowly, media learned about the deal and some TV shows did some reports. ZTE people became frantic yet they were so confident that the deal will be honored by the government, since, using their words, "this is a government to government transaction covered by an executive agreement."
12. By this time, Lozada has been receiving numerous death threats thru texting. Lozada presumed that these texts were emanating from Abalos group, since in one of their conversations, Abalos boasted that he's so influential with the military. Lozada confided this to his friend, Neri.
13. Then came Joey de Venecia opening the lid so to speak, against the deal. Media caught up with him including civil society. His father tried to dissuade him from testifying since he was receiving numerous death threats himself. One friend, former PNP Supt. Jaime delos santos further fanned the flames by going to JDV and reporting that these threats were real. The Speaker, fearful of his son's life, tried to talk Joey out of this. Joey refused. In his statement, Joey said that it was his responsibility as a citizen to report this anomalous deal.
14. The DOTC officials then went on an offensive, criticizing Joey publicly. The First Family also did their own smear campaign, portrating Joey to be a drug addict and a perjured witness. This issue would have been settled there since I believe, the palace succeeded in neutralizing Joey. The Senate Blue Ribbon then decided to suspend the hearings. Joey went on a vacation, first to Japan and then to the US. Sources say, the reason why he went to the US was to consult with his financier, George Soros and a big-time filipino businessman.
15. Christmas came and went. Relations between the Speaker and the palace soured which led to the ouster of the Speaker. Speaker went ballistic, and threatened to expose the anomalies of the palace during his valedictory. But since the palace assessed that he's now a spent force, they let him be. Ramos threatened the palace lightly, obviously desirous to still salvage the relationship of Arroyo and JDV.
16. The tipping point came when the camp of JDV leaked an information about Lozada's role in the ZTE mess. Learning of this, Lozada confessed to his boss, Environment Secretary Lito Atienza. Atienza then cautioned Lozada in testifying to the Senate.
17. Lozada, being a still small-time operator, panicked. The Senate, learning of this, issued a subpoena for him to appear before the Senate Blue Ribbon.
18. To avoid the Senate, Lozada then consulted with Deputy Executive Secretary Gaite. Gaite, in his testimony, advised Lozada to cool off. Gaite did this upon the instigation of Atienza who called him about the case of Lozada. The palace factotums then arranged all travel arrangements for Lozada, ostensibly to avoid the Senate hearings.
19. Atienza then ordered Lozada to go to Hongkong. Lozada obliged. In Hongkong, Lozada called Neri and Atienza.
20. Since Lozada was fast losing money to support himself there, Lozada asked Atienza that he return to the Philippines. He also was worried about leaving his family here. Meanwhile, members of civil society were actively persuading Lozada to testify against the palace.
21. Lozada then planed in on February 5th. Atienza, knowing Lozada's itinerary, called up PNP Chief Razon. Razon immediately ordered a team to fetch Lozada. The PSPO team then went to the airport and coordinated with the airport officials. What the public does not know is that Atienza and Gaite also called up Cusi to arrange for Lozada's "safekeeping".
22. Lozada arrived. At the airport, he was frisked away by a team of "military men", as what Lozada described them. He tried to tell his family, specifically his brother of what happened to him. The team kidnapped Lozada. They went to Calamba, then to Los Banos and back. When his captors already know that he's deathly afraid of them, they then went to Outback. There, Lozada was made to sign a security request upon the prodding of one Atty Bautista. Bautista was tapped by Gaite to prepare the affidavits.
23. Afraid for his life, Lozada signed the affidavits and requested that he be returned to his family. The team then went to La Salle Greenhills where his sister, Carmen and others were waiting. The team then requested to Carmen that she sign a security request. Desirous to end her brother's ordeal, she signed the document. At this juncture, the team relaxed their hold of Lozada.
24. With this, nuns and priests entered into the picture. They secured Lozada. The team panicked and asked for backup. It was then that the palace fair haired boy, Mike Defensor entered the picture. Defensor went to La Salle and talked with Lozada. This is the time when the palace wants to regain control of Lozada. After talking with him, Defensor asked Lozada that he deny everything about his abduction. Lozada told Defensor that he think about it.
25. After confering with the priests and nuns, Lozada decided to surrender his fate to God.

Tipping Point



Columnist Willy Esposo wrote yesterday that Lozada could be the tipping point that would lead to the ouster of Arroyo. Basing on the testimony of Lozada before the Senate last Friday, it could be. Yet, the most crucial moments would be the days after today when the prime personalities are expected to testify before the Senate.

Malacanan has allowed its officials to testify before the Senate today, hoping to cast aspersions to the integrity of the star witness. Palace strategists want to neutralize the effects or implications of Lozada's testimony. Obviously, they would try to manage this through the media. How would they do it?

1. They would try to insulate the First Family from any links so to speak, with the ZTE issue. DOTC officials will try to justify the project and refute the overpricing charge of Lozada. It would be a showdown between Lozada and DOTC Undersecretary Formoso. Formoso succeeded in neutralizing Joey de Venecia with his so-called "technical know-how". However, I think, this time, Formoso would be hard pressed in justifying the overprice.

IN their press conference at the palace, Formoso admitted that, indeed, the DOTC jacked up the price because they said, the project should cover the entire country. Bull. This statement admits that DOTC has been remiss in totally studying the project. Imagine, agreeing on a 200 million dollar plus project just to cover a miniscule segment of government? Likewise, the press con attempts to delimit the importance of NEDA in this entire thing by saying that it was the DOTC's function to review the project, not NEDA. It marks the halmark of a spin which I believe, the public would definitely not accept.

Observations

Anti-Arroyo groups should create sub-stories so to speak to expand this issue. Time is not on their side. Malacanang's interest meanwhile, is to end this issue expeditiously by massaging the media. I am very sure that Malacanan has unleashed its "dogs of war" so to speak, which includes former secretary Mike Defensor to take care of the media. They would be successful in some dailies, I know. However, they can't prevent radio stations and TV channels from broadcasting or airing this.

Both would be using time as their ally. Anti-Arroyo groups should unleash their forces in a calibrated manner to cause maximum damage against this administration. This is a make-or-break for them.

Same as Arroyo's. Police would be hard-pressed justifying the "abduction" of Lozada. Malacanang's decision to allow officials to testify could prove deleterious to their interests. Why so? Because this is not the time for them to allow their enemies any room to maneuver against them. Any space given to their detractors in the guise of transparency could spell the start of the end of this administration.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Chinese invasion of RP

Palace factotums are quick to say that the ZTE scandal is a small matter. Why? Because the palace already killed it before it would even affect us. The DBM Secretary was quick to point out during the senate hearings last year that the project does not have any allocations in the budget and therefore, he says, can't be deemed to be detrimental to all of us.

Sure. The ZTE is technically, not in effect yet, therefore, there's no harm done. Yeah.

The secretary is telling us a half-truth. There's already harm done. First, hours of meetings spent by government officials talking with the ZTE and Chinese officials were all paid for by public money, including of course, that infamous trip by Arroyo to Boao. Second, a strained diplomatic relations with China could cost us millions of dollars' worth of lost investments. Third, the effects in the business community. How on earth would we now turn this despicable episode into a positive promotions for us when the palace itself is leading the corruption of our entire society?

Remember that the palace has just declared this project suspended, not entirely scrapped. At this point, government is still pursuing the NBN project under a new name and a new guise--the NGN project. ZTE's hands are still evident since these local telcos would still use ZTE equipment in running this project. Remember that telcos has admitted that they use ZTE telecommunications equipment in their operations. The reason why ZTE remains silent now is because they know that, when the dust settles, they will still gain from all of these. Government will still pay them multi-million dollars' worth for the technical equipment they will be supplying to the Philippine government.

Why is it that Filipinos should oppose ZTE's role in the NGN project

Like what Senator Honasan pointed out, why would this administration allow an enemy like China to control the levers of our government? Have DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza realize the security implications of this? Imagine, China knowing the access codes of our governmental system! What if the Spratlys issue suddenly thrust the Philippines into a war with China? How would government function effectively when all of its computer networks are controlled by Chinese, much less, members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)? Sources say, the ZTE people are legitimate members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

I am, admittedly a Maoist. But my Maoism ends when my nationalism begins. I cannot, in my entire soul, hand over the security of this country to another foreign power, especially China whom I consider as a competitor in the global market. Yes, the old China provided us with the ideological direction years ago. But, this is NOT enough for us to agree that we hand over our sovereignty to them since China is also a claimant in the Spratlys.

The ZTE deal is just a front of China to finally and slowly conquer the Philippines. Why is the Philippines so strategic for the Chinese? One, our natural resources. We have an inexhaustible supply of coal and natural gas which China needs to satisfy its power requirements. Two, our market. We have at least 90 million consumers of cheap Chinese products. And three, our real estate. We have enormous tracts of land which the Chinese needs to expand its operations beyond its borders.

The Chinese can't do it in Malaysia nor Indonesia nor Singapore. For China, it needs another country which is susceptible enough like ours to expand its neo-capitalist operations.

Church to lead the search for Truth

"Their public confession[s] may be considered a providential event that may yet save our country from being hostage to scandalous and shady government deals that offend the common good and serve only personal, family and group interests,"--Archbishop Oscar Lagdameo, President, Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines(CBCP)

In a monumental act, the CBCP finally took a stand against the prevailing order. Archbishop Lagdameo yesterday articulated what the Church wanted to say for so long--the truth shall set us free. So now, the struggle against Arroyo has assumed a higher and deeper stage--that of struggling for the Truth.

If you look at it, however, it is not the Truth that would set us free. It is the struggle for Justice. We, the People now know how corrupt our system has become. We have realized that this corrupt and decrepit system is being perpetuated by those in power. And we already know that these people are just motivated by self-gain.

Now, we await the pronouncements of other religious groups, such as the Iglesia Ni Cristo, the influential El Shaddai and the protestant groups. They must also take the stand and announce their disgusts against Arroyo. Not doing so would mean complicity to these acts of the Palace mafia. Taking a silent stance would mean they accede to what is happening.

Former president Cory Aquino has just visited Lozada, signalling the formal start of active engagement against Arroyo. The president is hurt, says her close aide Merly Poblador who, by the way, is also involved in this controversy. While all of these are going on, we find Lakas slowly disintegrating, with Lakas stalwart and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita encouraging former Speaker Jose de Venecia to relinquish his post as Lakas president to QC Mayor Sonny Belmonte. JDV's meeting with Erap, Ermita says, is a sign that JDV has totally burned his bridges with Malacanang. What it means though is JDV is now a persona non grata at the palace.

The only one left not protesting the callousness of the palace is former president and Lakas founder Fidel V. Ramos. I am sure that FVR will not tolerate this latest caper of the palace. Surely, FVR is not in cahoots with FG's group. However, it is perplexing to say the least, why FVR remains silent to all of these. There are some explanations:

1. FVR is assessing the entire situation. He knows that Lozada's appearance may provide the missing element in moves to oust Arroyo. Being the head of the CIA here in Asia, FVR is in the best position to assess the current standing of Arroyo vis-a-vis this war. What are the elements that would probably lead FVR to conclude that, indeed, Arroyo is in a losing or lost proposition:

a. Military support---This is crucial in any move against the palace. How many elements in the higher echelon of the military does Arroyo have and how many does not support her. Obviously, the scale right now is even, to say the least. Generals are divided. Arroyo does not have the entire loyalty of the military.

Esperon is a crucial element in all of these. His participation is very important to this struggle against immorality and corruption. If Esperon wants to save his ass or retire honorably, he must take a definitive stand against the creeping dictatorship and announce to the Filipino People his disgusts over this corruption. If Esperon remains silent, he is, in effect, condoning this blatant immorality and should be ousted from his post too.

b. Civilian support--It is quite obvious that Arroyo has lost a considerable segment of civil society, which includes the Church. This announcement of CBCP is a signal to Arroyo to take some definitive actions to appease the church. However, this I think is too late in the game. Whatever Arroyo would do now would be USELESS because its the responsibility of the church to assume a stand against immorality.

So now, there is no way out of this mess. As what happened last year, the only saving grace for Arroyo is DIVERSION. She will definitely order a special operations team to create another scenario of destabilization. What would be this:

1. Another bombing which this administration will attribute to terrorism. This is an effective diversionary tactic which they did last year with the Glorietta and Congress bombing.

2. An explosive battle in Mindanao, against using Jolo as a pretext.

3. A coup d'etat launched by Arroyo's own force. This is the most logical tactic. Arroyo will preempt these moves with her own moves. Either she'll use the Magdalo for this, or use another force.

SO ITS GOD SAVE THE QUEEN once more.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Why Nograles?

I forgot to write about the change in the speakership. Cong. Rodriguez whom I admire because he gave me a signed copy of his book on Intellectual Property rights when he was a dean of the San Sebastian law school, said that the reason he supported Nograles was because of him being a Mindanawnon. I am wont to criticize Mr. Rodriguez since it is quite apparent that he did it for the idealism. A first termer, Rodriguez probably is so naive to think that his vote would result to huge sums of monies going to his district very soon. If he thinks that way, then, probably others naive as himself also did the same.

Patronage is very apt to describe the Philippine political system. Congressmen exchange their idealism for a few crumbs in the presidential table. Since the president control the road users tax, Congressmen are "obliged" to pay homage to the palace. They have exchanged the independence of Congress for gold. Why?

Because the people expect the Congressmen to perform. How would Congressmen, like Rodriguez, a first termer, perform if they don't have funds to support their projects? These projects will chart their political futures. If they want a career in politics, they better astound the people with their basketball courts, their farm-to-market roads, their public plazas, lighted streets and even ports. They need to give support to their hungry constituents with occasional support for fiestas, funerals and the like.

This is the reality. No one worth his salt would use his own money to fund these things. Rodriguez is one of them. And traditionally, Mindanawnons receive just ten percent of the GAA (General Appropriations Act) budget which is a pittance compared to the ones being received by the Luzon-based congressmen and even the Visayan-based congressmen.

So the systemic cycle continues--people expecting congressmen to perform, congressmen then goes to the palace to ask for funds and of course, the palace expects congressmen to toe the line so to speak. This is pathetic.

Why Nograles?

Nograles has shown his lapdog character early on in his political career. He is an able lieutenant, the kind that would be satisfied with a few crumbs being thrown at him by his principals, who, of course, includes the First Family. If at all, Nograles would do to change congress, he will change congress from an independent constitutional body to a highly patronizing and totally enslaved House of robots.

Nograles is there also to emphasize what this administration wants---charter change. Nograles is the best guy to articulate this because the palace has maintained the line that the reason why we need cha-cha is to help Mindanaonons like him. Definitely, Nograles will soon initiate charter change and would use his being a Mindanaonon to justify it.

Clever. But not quite.

Nograles does not have the political savvyness of JDV to counter opposition to cha-cha. Nograles, for all his posturings, does not command respect among the people, much less, civil society. Nograles is an expensive proposition. Why? Because everytime that he will ask for support, he would need millions from Razon and the First Family to do it. He does not have political capital for to have this, he must have very strong relations with these congressmen, meaning, they should at least have times when they spent it doing political battles together. Obviously, Nograles was just a lieutenant of JDV during those political battles. He is not a tried and tested general. He is an ass-licker yes, but to lick the asses of 240 people in Congress takes time.

Protection


Protection is the new old term being used by everybody in Philippine society today. When asked why police abducted Lozada, PNP chief Razon said cops were just trying to "protect" him. When Lozada testified before the Senate yesterday, he revealed that the reason why the ZTE deal ballooned to an astounding 325 million dollars was "Abalos was just trying to "protect" his 130 million dollar commission. The nuns and civil society witnessed Lozada's testimonty, saying they were trying to "protect" him from the evil forces of the state.

JDV in his valedictory speech before Congress told how he and his partymates "protected" Arroyo from being impeached many times. He was unprepared though to be ousted himself. Senator Cayetano asked Arroyo to "resign or go on leave" to "protect" the integrity of the ZTE investigation.

Now, the chief of the Eastern Police District Supt. Nilo de la Cruz are mobilizing his men to "protect" the EDSA shrine. The state recognizes that the explosive tenor of Lozada's Senate testimony might again see huge throngs of people going to the shrine to oust Arroyo. Dela Cruz said, they want to "protect" the Shrine from the people.

So this word protection was used for:

1. Protecting a person (i.e. Lozada and Arroyo)
2. Commissions (like what Abalos did in ZTE)
3. Impeachment (JDV did that to Arroyo before finally being ousted himself)
4. Integrity (Cayetano is asking Arroyo to at least find the temerity to be ethical)
5. Monuments (EDSA Shrine and the Mendiola bridge)

So we now see the state transforming itself as a garrison state, the kind that only exists in dictatorial regimes. The use of the word admits being attacked or being in a vulnerable state. Both sides (the side of Arroyo and the anti-Arroyos) are protecting themselves from each other, belying the fact that, indeed, both groups are now gearing up for a major fight.



What this means to all of us?

Both groups are appealing to the powerful neutrals for support. The fight between the Arroyo mafia and the Anti-Arroyo groups have now reached strategic neutrality. Contrary to belief, Arroyo is not as powerful as she thinks she is. In one swift stroke, Arroyo's position has changed from the most powerful political leader to a slowly marginalized leader.

I am revising my earlier observation that, Arroyo can't be ousted from any political act. The Lozada episode exposed the weakness of Arroyo. This action of a few nuns and priests from La Salle showed how vulnerable this administration is. It is just a small group of God-fearing men and women who stood up to challenge a dimunitive yet powerful personage such as Arroyo.

It is now, a matter of time and a matter of resources for this thing to snowball. Korina Sanchez asked the most relevant question--where do we go from here? Many people are thinking that this could spell the end of this regime. The Makati Business Club and JDV predicted this to be so. When two of the most powerful voices talk about being ousted, this administration should listen and take the cue. Historically, when both the business sector and the militant religious merge, this means that a campaign is in the offing and we should take this very seriously.

Let me say that the political situation has drastically changed for Mrs. Arroyo. Her fate as a leader now lies in its perilous state, more vulnerable than other previous attempts. Why? Because Lozada has provided the dramatis causa so to speak, that could galvanize public anger and turn it into a huge mass of dissenters. When people are angry inside and they don't find an outlet fast to show their anger, this has very dangerous security implications because it would manifest itself in other forms.

Friday, February 8, 2008

What's next, Mr. Lozada?

People are disappointed with PNP Chief Razon, I myself, included. He choose to smear his fine record as an officer and a gentleman by throwing his lot with Arroyo. Sir, there is a fine line between being a loyal soldier and being the Mamang Pulis of the people. Sir, you don't owe your post to Arroyo. You owe it to yourself. Don't be a lapdog like your mistah, Esperon. How would we now trust the police with our lives when you and your wards are the very ones who violate the law which you swore to protect with all your life.

I am also disappointed with Neri. Lozada said he respects Neri because he has this reform agenda. How could you implement your agenda Mr. Neri when you are being surrounded by devils? How can good survive amidst all the filth?

What would happen in the next few weeks:

1. Before the Lakas directorate meeting in 21 February, there will definitely be a major incident that would happen. JDV will be ousted as Lakas President. Former president FVR already said that JDV will relinquish his post in Lakas, since it is certain anyway that Kampi will successfully raid the party dry. In fact, Lakas is already a spent force. The merger of Lakas and Kampi has been sealed already. There is no other option for JDV but to give up the ghost.

I am certain though that JDV and FVR will form a new party that will pursue the moral revolution of JDV. We are now seeing their efforts, with the emergence of Lozada. Lozada's role in all of these is for him to galvanize public support. We may not see this support emerging as fast as we want. But, it will come. It will come if the state tries to force itself against its enemies. I believe that an arrest warrant from the DOJ against Lozada will be the greatest blunder of this administration. Why? It will definitely lead to massive demonstrations leading the the ouster of Lozada.

I am sure that the DOJ will indeed, do this to Lozada. This early, Pres. Arroyo already gave the go-signal to her lapdog, InJUstice Secretary Gonzales to start investigation in the ZTE deal. An inquirer report says that the DOJ will summon Lozada to the investigation. Gonzales, however, shielded First Gentleman Mike Arroyo since, he said, there's no direct link to him in Lozada's testimony.

The next weeks will definitely be very, very exciting.

They don't get it

DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza said Lozada's appearance at the Senate will amount to nothing. Presidential legal counsel Sergio Apostol chastised the ZTE deal star witness as a crying boy. While former Chief of Staff Mike "the burned lip" Defensor flatly told Lozada that his testimony will amount to nothing because "the palace will just take care of it" in the media.

Such bravado coming from these people smacks of utter, sheer and naked show of power. These people, beneficiaries of EDSA Dos, remains totally blind of what is happening to everyone of us. They are also blind with what has happened to them. Power and money have totally stripped them of all morality. They have become monsters and devils. They can't really cleanse themselves of all filth.

This administration has chosen to side not with the law but with evil. The lies, the abuse and the corruption have all blinded them. Worst, they are infecting almost every one of us with their wickedness. They are not victims of an immoral and corrupt system. No. They are creators of this kind of society. They created a society where lying is the code and taking money which are not theirs is the norm, not a sin.

And they would do everything in their power to perpetuate themselves in power. However, the more they do that, the more they dig their own graves. For it is the law of nature that evil in all its forms will definitely be erased from all memory by the Higher Power. No single incident in nature has evil and wickedness won its battle with good. There will definitely come a time when their evil-doings will be exposed and erased from the people's sight.

Lozada, for all his sins and warts, have thrown himself into the mercy of God. There is nothing that would harm him. The worst that would happen would be for people to allow the evil forces of the state to get their dirty hands at him.

A Confluence of Forces

Malacanang is trying very hard to justify the lies it has been peddling to justify the abduction of Lozada. Obviously, these officials committed a grave blunder which could cause the downfall of this administration.

It is quite obvious that it was a forcible act of the police officers to prevent Lozada from exercising his rights. Questions arise:

1. Why is it that the police officers were able to form a team which includes a lawyer that soon? Obviously, the team which got Lozada from the airport was instructed a few days prior to Lozada's return to the country.

2. Why is it that police did not immediately take Lozada to the senate? Everybody knows that the Senate issued a warrant of arrest against Lozada. Why is it that police did not immediately execute the contempt charge of the senate?

Whatever Razon says about this thing, one fact remains: they really committed a grievous mistake. They are saying that Lozada was not kidnapped. What are the elements which constitute kidnapping? One of the requisites of the crime is the forcible act which prevents an individual from exercising or enjoying his basic rights. At the time of the incident, relatives of Lozada was not able to communicate with him. The PNP was just forced to take Lozada to DLSU Greenhills because of extreme public pressure and probably, when the palace realized that the public already knew of their plans and it was turning to be a fiasco.

What is certain is this:

1. Because of this incident, forces once disunited, have now merged together to again, threaten the security of the state. There's a catch here: if these forces fail to wrest power from Arroyo for the last time, they will find themselves totally marginalized and rendered inutile in the next few years. Any movement now against Arroyo should be extremely cautious and calculated.

Announcement: those who feel obligated as true Filipinos should take part in today's Black Friday mass mobilizations. Civil society groups are planning some activities today to denounce this incident. My take on this is: I am now in lifestyle. Politics in this country sucks.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Palace coup

Sources say, the FG group is now moving very fast for the marginalization of the following palace ass-lickers:

1. Executive Secretary Ermita is being groomed for the Washington ambassadorship to delimit his powers and influence over the network. Sources say, GMA already agreed on this.
2. Esperon is likely to replace Teodoro as new DND chief if Esperon severs his strong ties with the Tabako group.
3. Presidential counsel Sergio Apostol will be replaced by an attorney very close to FG. Apostol will be relegated to another government agency.
4. Bunye is very likely to be replaced and put in another government agency. Palace dogs are already writing the press release for his immediate transfer.
5. Winston Garcia is being groomed to the Commission on Audit. He will be replaced by a young recommendee of former Presidential Chief of Staff Mike Defensor.
6. Justice Secretary Raul Gonzales will be a subject of a smear campaign (well, they don't need to do that much now). A scandal will rock the JUstice department.
7. Some Lakas partymen are moving against the removal of JDV and FVR from the party. Merger is expected.

Mark my words. These are bound to happen very very soon.

A bawang revelation

After some dramatic incidents, Lozada finally appeared before the public, confirming earlier allegations made by Joey de Venecia. As it turned out, the revelations further dug former COMELEC chairman Abalos' grave. Lozada confirmed what Joey exposed at the Senate a few months ago, which led, as some say, to the ouster of his father a few days ago. What do we have to say about the alleged revelation?

Its a bawang revelation. Nothing of the c-4 kind of stuff. Why?

There's nothing new about what Lozada said, except to say that Abalos turned greedy. The reason why this project became so controversial and eventually resulted to its cancellation was the fact that Abalos wanted to go all out by himself. He became so greedy that he sacrificed the deal and his relations with the Arroyos. I expected something like what Charisa Ocampo did at the height of the Erap ouster movement where the former Equitable bank executive testified that she saw Erap signing as Jose Velarde a few feet away from her powdered face. Or something to that effect.

Here, Lozada simply narrated what Joey said before the Senate which Neri refused to reveal. Lozada actually absolved Neri and the First Gentleman of all doubt about the deal. He merely said that he met FG in a meeting and Abalos reportedly told him that the project is now okey.

So the tale shows that greediness did not pay off for Abalos and his group. The ending of this saga is very imminent. It shows how Abalos went greedy and wanted the pie all for himself.

We need more Lozadas to come out of the woodwork and expose not only the ZTE deal but other anomalous deals which this government is cooking up to the detriment of the Filipino people.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Another confirmation

As I wrote here a few entries ago, the AFP admitted having been involved in a P 5 million gun deal. At least 5 officers were involved in this anomalous deal which, as I wrote here, involves Esperon. Sources say, this is one of the reasons why Esperon's term was extended to clean his records so to speak before he turns over the reins to Yano.

However, with the JDV ouster, there is a new twist. Sources say Esperon might turn his coat earlier than expected. There is a strong possibility of an internal coup before April of this year.

So, Gloria brace yourself. You might find yourself caught in a maelstrom very soon.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

A Major War of the Titans

There's a major battle ahead. This war will clearly show who among the major political titans of this country will win the prize--that of being the top political leader of the Philippines. And it will not be long before all of these things will reach boiling point.

And who are the protagonists?

There are two major camps: the camp of Arroyo and the camp of FVR-Estrada-Aquino-JDV. Yes, this is confirmed. You may not believe it but these four major political players have now joined forces against Arroyo.

In an interview over ANC, JDV revealed that FVR called him up and relayed his all-out support for JDV. Estrada also called JDV. And it is not a secret that even Cory called JDV. What does these all mean?

Hundreds of their supporters, their lieutenants, and their political soldiers, especially those highly entrenched in the civil society sector will now move to further destabilize the administration of Arroyo. This is the signal for everybody against Arroyo to move. Analyzing the situation, it will not be long before we see the following events happening:

(a) Internal jockeying at the palace to remove JDV allies from their positions. With the exception of Justice Secretary Gonzales, groups within the palace will definitely try to oust Ermita from the Executive Secretary position. This is a certainty despite the pronouncement of support by Ermita. We will also see Ignacio Bunye's role as the presidential spokesperson marginalized since Bunye is also highly connected with JDV. There are other executive officers in the administration who are closely connected with JDV and FVR. They will definitely be ousted from their respective positions. Allies of Arroyo will do this in silence.

(b) There will be at least four (4) very close Cabinet members of Arroyo who will do a JDV--expose the anomalies of government. What is happening with Lozada is just an example. Even some advisers of Arroyo will distance themselves from the center of power and expose the anomalies under the guise of the moral revolution of JDV.

(c) Though the Church have been neutralized, I believe that in the next few weeks, we will see a totally different CBCP. Militant church workers will rise up against Arroyo, leaving the pro-Arroyo bishops marginalized.

(d) The revival of the civil society network is expected. With JDV-FVR casting their strength for the removal of Arroyo, it will not be long before their mass-bases, especially their supporters will also move to organize the masses more and conduct wide-spread mass mobilizations. The critical period will be in the next two to three weeks.

(e) Obviously, critical segments of the military will also give their lot to the JDV-FVR-Aquino-Erap alignment. However, I can't really read what they will do with Esperon. Either they isolate him or convince him to join the movement. I think that some groups close to Arroyo will move for the delimitation of Esperon since he is very close to FVR. I think as soon as some things are resolved, like if the rebel group of Lim etal agrees with some suggestions to "invite" Esperon to join them, then, we will see a repeat of EDSA Dos.

So, we are just counting the days when this war will happen between these titans. Either they do it within this month in celebration of EDSA 1 or they do it after the Holy Week. I surmise that a major event will happen within this month. For, if they fail to mass up and do what is necessary and expected of them to do against Arroyo this month, then, all is lost.

The effect of not moving against Arroyo now

If these groups highly critical against Arroyo fail to do their mission, these events will happen:

(1) Lakas will be raided dry. It will be a spent force. Lakas will just be a shell of a party. As the voting showed yesterday, more than 50 Lakas Congressmen supported the ouster move of JDV. We don't know what's happening at the grass-roots level but surely, Lakas will find itself irrelevant in the 2010 elections if it does not flex its muscles again and oust Arroyo.

(2) Arroyo will emerge as the strongest political force. Arroyo will use her enormous political power to decimate her detractors and enemies and build a totally dictatorial government where the center of power is cloistered around various mafia-like groups of like-minded interests.

Next Target: FVR

The next target will be FVR. Mark my word. The reason why Arroyo is also moving against FVR is fear. Likewise Arroyo wants to marginalize FVR since Tabako is still perceived as a king-maker and a force to reckon with. With FVR at the side of JDV, it will not be long before the former president moves against GMA.