We have seen numerous fortune tellers on television, saying this and that about our fate this 2008. This year, as everyone knows, is the start of a new cycle in Chinese astrology. These fortune tellers have already said things on the futures and careers of showbiz personalities, etc. What about politics and the economy? Let me humour you, my readers, about some political prognostinations this 2008.
Politics 1: Anti-Arroyo protests to continue
Protests against this government will continue unabated this year. However, I see that these groups will encounter numerous problems. First, logistics. Second, lack of support from political parties and third, internal disagreements. These snags will affect their moves in a major way.
Initiative has been lost due to the Christmas season. I see a controversy to happen within the first and second weeks of January which would again, put the anti-arroyo movement on perspective. A move to oust Arroyo could be possible within January or the first weeks of February. After this, possibly on June, July or worst, September.
Politics 2: Opposition will remain weak
The fragmentation of the opposition ranks contribute greatly to its weakness. This early, various opposition personalities have intimated their desire to run for president in 2010. I dare say that these personalities do not hold the people's interests in their hearts. For if they do, they will not wreck the opposition ranks with their personal desires. No one among them is fit to become president. They don't have the genuine interest of the people in their minds and hearts.
The lack of a solid campaign ideological platform will contribute to the defeat of the opposition in 2010.
Politics 3: 2008--campaign year for 2010
2008 will usher the start of the election campaign period. Several personalities will test the waters so to speak. Expect vigorous media campaigns from presidentiables coming from the opposition and administration.
Politics 4: Philippines--theater of war between US and China
This country will remain the foremost theater of war between the US and China. Though undeclared, this silent war will continue in the Philippines. We felt this cold war between the two economic giants during the ZTE controversy and the propaganda against Chinese products. Chinese and American interests will dominate Philippine policy-making this year.
Last year, we saw the emergence of a forward base by the US in Mindanao. China will definitely fortify its presence in the Spratlys as countermeasure. Increased Chinese presence in the country will be felt. It will be a matter of how pervasive the influence is from both groups.
Politics 5: US to choose candidate with strong links
The US is seeking a presidentiable who will not oppose US interests and at the same time, counter Chinese interests in the country. Obviously, this administration is pro-Chinese. Look at how it looks the other way when Chinese products flood the markets via Customs. Study the disparity of US products vis-a-vis Chinese products in the Philippines and you'll know what I meant.
2008 will see more and more engagements of Chinese and American envoys with both opposition and administration camps. Castilian interests will be tertiary.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Palparan--Liability for the entire AFP
The Court of Appeals just found retired General Jovito Palparan liable for the disappearance of two farmers in 2006. This is concrete evidence of the culpability or complicity of the AFP in human rights violations. Do we expect this administration to prosecute The Butcher?
I extremely doubt it.
This administration has an unspoken policy against its enemies. And this policy involves elimination. Arroyo started the ball rolling with a declaration of war against the CPP-NPA-NDF. The AFP has a deadline--2010. Arroyo also pronounced death on the MILF and the ASG. The AFP has been unsuccessful so far. Why? Because the people hate them. And why do the people hate the AFP?
One, the AFP establishment continues to support an illegitimate president. Two, it continues to lie about its part on human rights violations. And third, it continues to stifle dissent from its ranks. Reform-minded officers are put in jail and those who advocate for the total cleansing of the ranks are branded as destabilizers.
Palparan's continued stellar role as this administration's Berdugo adds to the people's distrust. What's worst, Palparan's taste for blood continues even after his tenure as Army general. Much worst is this news that Palparan had a role in the killing of a Davao journalist upon the alleged instigation of a legislator. Palparan, now a paid assassin? I surely hope not. Because this puts the anti-Communist campaign on a very bad light.
It is to the best interest of the AFP to silence Palparan. Otherwise, we may yet see the people themselves silencing the braggart.
Magno's relevance
Philippine Star Columnist Alex Magno said that the CPP-NPA-NDF is becoming irrelevant. I ask Magno--what's relevant to him? Supporting an illegitimate and extremely becoming a conjugal dictatorship such as this Arroyo regime? What money can do for Magno.
Magno became "relevant" when he was used by Speaker Joe de Venecia in decimating the Estrada regime. After the successful coup d'etat, Magno was appointed to various positions in government. Magno became rich (ten million pesos richer, I was informed) when he sold his soul to the trapos. People in the academe says that Magno was a great loss to the movement because he's one of those who hold promise as a socialist.
I dare say with certainty that Magno is not a loss. In fact, it was a blessing for the Movement to have Magno exposed as an opportunist and a great double-agent.
If Palparan is this state's agent of physical destruction, Magno serves as its ideological ivory tower breaker. These two stooges form part of a team of deconstructionists whose sole task is to debilitate the Movement. I do believe however, that these two stupid dogs will die before the Movement totally loses relevance.
First, the Movement will live on, probably not in its complete form as a Marxist-Leninist-Mao Zedong thought organisation but as a totally dynamic socialist movement. The CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to innovate and assume forms attuned to the times. This is its fate. If it's really the genuine people's party, it will accept the winds of change instead of holding on to the Red Book.
Second, its 39 years of existence shows its enemies that the Party will survive the ravages of time, probably not in the form it envisage decades ago, but in a form still adherent to Maoism yet totally open to other socialist ideas of this time.
And third, the form that the Party will assume is now in its infancy. Going back to the tenets of the Katipunan, which the CPP-NPA-NDF recognizes as its original roots, the Party will continue to be relevant to those among us who want change.
I dare say and I say with certainty, Magno will lose relevance in 2008 and beyond along with Palparan because the people will see beyond their facades and deceit and find lapdogs with hollow brains and saliva flowing from their mouths. As the Bible says, they will be men who'll swallow their own puke.
I extremely doubt it.
This administration has an unspoken policy against its enemies. And this policy involves elimination. Arroyo started the ball rolling with a declaration of war against the CPP-NPA-NDF. The AFP has a deadline--2010. Arroyo also pronounced death on the MILF and the ASG. The AFP has been unsuccessful so far. Why? Because the people hate them. And why do the people hate the AFP?
One, the AFP establishment continues to support an illegitimate president. Two, it continues to lie about its part on human rights violations. And third, it continues to stifle dissent from its ranks. Reform-minded officers are put in jail and those who advocate for the total cleansing of the ranks are branded as destabilizers.
Palparan's continued stellar role as this administration's Berdugo adds to the people's distrust. What's worst, Palparan's taste for blood continues even after his tenure as Army general. Much worst is this news that Palparan had a role in the killing of a Davao journalist upon the alleged instigation of a legislator. Palparan, now a paid assassin? I surely hope not. Because this puts the anti-Communist campaign on a very bad light.
It is to the best interest of the AFP to silence Palparan. Otherwise, we may yet see the people themselves silencing the braggart.
Magno's relevance
Philippine Star Columnist Alex Magno said that the CPP-NPA-NDF is becoming irrelevant. I ask Magno--what's relevant to him? Supporting an illegitimate and extremely becoming a conjugal dictatorship such as this Arroyo regime? What money can do for Magno.
Magno became "relevant" when he was used by Speaker Joe de Venecia in decimating the Estrada regime. After the successful coup d'etat, Magno was appointed to various positions in government. Magno became rich (ten million pesos richer, I was informed) when he sold his soul to the trapos. People in the academe says that Magno was a great loss to the movement because he's one of those who hold promise as a socialist.
I dare say with certainty that Magno is not a loss. In fact, it was a blessing for the Movement to have Magno exposed as an opportunist and a great double-agent.
If Palparan is this state's agent of physical destruction, Magno serves as its ideological ivory tower breaker. These two stooges form part of a team of deconstructionists whose sole task is to debilitate the Movement. I do believe however, that these two stupid dogs will die before the Movement totally loses relevance.
First, the Movement will live on, probably not in its complete form as a Marxist-Leninist-Mao Zedong thought organisation but as a totally dynamic socialist movement. The CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to innovate and assume forms attuned to the times. This is its fate. If it's really the genuine people's party, it will accept the winds of change instead of holding on to the Red Book.
Second, its 39 years of existence shows its enemies that the Party will survive the ravages of time, probably not in the form it envisage decades ago, but in a form still adherent to Maoism yet totally open to other socialist ideas of this time.
And third, the form that the Party will assume is now in its infancy. Going back to the tenets of the Katipunan, which the CPP-NPA-NDF recognizes as its original roots, the Party will continue to be relevant to those among us who want change.
I dare say and I say with certainty, Magno will lose relevance in 2008 and beyond along with Palparan because the people will see beyond their facades and deceit and find lapdogs with hollow brains and saliva flowing from their mouths. As the Bible says, they will be men who'll swallow their own puke.
A soldier as president
History has been extremely kind for the bold. European and Asian histories have seen ascensions by strong willed individuals whom the public adore yet the elites despise. I will not cite case histories here because if you read a lot, you'll know what I mean.
In my later blog, I said that the present crop of political parsonages suffer from lack of political differentiation. I cited the Liberal Party as one example. Though it has a fresh lineup of young blood, the party still lacks concrete image branding in the minds of the people. Yes, it positions itself as an antithesis to the NP and even Lakas. Yet, it does not do enough to position itself away from its category of being a traditional political party.
What the recent 2006 elections show us is that cheating and election manipulation prove ineffective when a party positions itself as a movement for reforms. The campaign of Trillianes is a brilliant case study. Despite the lack of campaign funds, it won the elections because election cheaters fear for their lives if they cheat Trillianes of his well-deserved victory and the overwhelming numbers of people who voted for him destroyed whatever sinister cheating plans or machinery they have against him. The LP can win like this but they need to differentiate themselves from the rest of the flock if they want to avert a loss.
The possibility of having a former soldier as president remains strong. What would prevent the Magdalo from launching a presidential campaign for Trillianes? Nothing except Arroyo. The Magdalo could register as a political movement and take on these trapo parties come 2010. First, they are differentiated in the minds of the people. Second, they have a cause. And third, this cause actually animates every Filipino mind.
One question though--momentum. The Bagong Katipunan has momentum cut out for it come the first quarter of January or even February. They have two options which they can use--either go for the jugular early on or wait for 2010. If they wait, many things could happen which could destroy momentum. In politics, which they have elected unwittingly or wittingly to participate, anything could happen. Fortunes change in a flicker. They could be rendered irrelevant in 2010 or maybe not. What is certain is that, they should not be blind to the opportunities God has presented to them now. Before the year ends, they should meet and talk about what they'll do in 2008.
In my later blog, I said that the present crop of political parsonages suffer from lack of political differentiation. I cited the Liberal Party as one example. Though it has a fresh lineup of young blood, the party still lacks concrete image branding in the minds of the people. Yes, it positions itself as an antithesis to the NP and even Lakas. Yet, it does not do enough to position itself away from its category of being a traditional political party.
What the recent 2006 elections show us is that cheating and election manipulation prove ineffective when a party positions itself as a movement for reforms. The campaign of Trillianes is a brilliant case study. Despite the lack of campaign funds, it won the elections because election cheaters fear for their lives if they cheat Trillianes of his well-deserved victory and the overwhelming numbers of people who voted for him destroyed whatever sinister cheating plans or machinery they have against him. The LP can win like this but they need to differentiate themselves from the rest of the flock if they want to avert a loss.
The possibility of having a former soldier as president remains strong. What would prevent the Magdalo from launching a presidential campaign for Trillianes? Nothing except Arroyo. The Magdalo could register as a political movement and take on these trapo parties come 2010. First, they are differentiated in the minds of the people. Second, they have a cause. And third, this cause actually animates every Filipino mind.
One question though--momentum. The Bagong Katipunan has momentum cut out for it come the first quarter of January or even February. They have two options which they can use--either go for the jugular early on or wait for 2010. If they wait, many things could happen which could destroy momentum. In politics, which they have elected unwittingly or wittingly to participate, anything could happen. Fortunes change in a flicker. They could be rendered irrelevant in 2010 or maybe not. What is certain is that, they should not be blind to the opportunities God has presented to them now. Before the year ends, they should meet and talk about what they'll do in 2008.
Political Differentiation
Political differentiation is a term which means being different. That's the secret of Trillianes' victory at the Senate race. And that's what's lacking in our list of presidentiables now.
What would constitute political differentiation?
In branding speak, this is what we call brand equity or positioning. Nowadays, the people lump all politicians together in one category: trapo. Surveys upon surveys reveal the people's desire to see a non-traditional politician ascend the rungs of power. What would define such a politician? What would be a non-traditional politician be like?
A Non-traditional politician espouses the people's cause. And what's the people's cause? The people's cause is a better life. And what would define a better life? Improved economic conditions for every Filipino family, peaceful co-existence, better opportunities, etc. For a Filipino, a roof over their heads, three square meals a day and a secure job constitutes a better life. This is the end-all and be-all of Filipino existence. For Filipinos, whatever it takes to get these things is irrelevant. If it means struggle, then, so be it. If it means going to the streets or voting for a politician, then, let it be so.
A non-traditional politician should have this cause in mind when he or she crafts his/her platform of governance. That platform should have an ideological construct, the kind that inspires and yet, delivers the goods eventually. To be different, a politician must be able to prove that his platform works based on his years' of experience in public service.
Judging from the list of political parties constituting the political spectrum, the Liberal Party holds the most promise. It has a fresh image. However, its posturing is not enough to qualify it as a non-traditional political party. Until now, Mar Roxas has not communicated the reasons why people should vote for Liberal Party or for him come 2010. Yes, he has his palengke tours. Yes, he has remonstrated his opposition in some of the palace moves. Yet, Mar Roxas still lacks political differentiation because he has not been as maverick as Trillianes is in the minds of the public.
Likewise, Mar Roxas shows no "halos" so to speak, that the public saw with Erap and Ramos. Roxas should command a stable following and the public should see it. Roxas should be seen as a rebel with a cause, the kind that inspires and not just for publicity sake. He should do it by 2008. Otherwise, he'll lose momentum and probably could suffer the fate of one of LP's stalwart, former Senator Salonga.
What would constitute political differentiation?
In branding speak, this is what we call brand equity or positioning. Nowadays, the people lump all politicians together in one category: trapo. Surveys upon surveys reveal the people's desire to see a non-traditional politician ascend the rungs of power. What would define such a politician? What would be a non-traditional politician be like?
A Non-traditional politician espouses the people's cause. And what's the people's cause? The people's cause is a better life. And what would define a better life? Improved economic conditions for every Filipino family, peaceful co-existence, better opportunities, etc. For a Filipino, a roof over their heads, three square meals a day and a secure job constitutes a better life. This is the end-all and be-all of Filipino existence. For Filipinos, whatever it takes to get these things is irrelevant. If it means struggle, then, so be it. If it means going to the streets or voting for a politician, then, let it be so.
A non-traditional politician should have this cause in mind when he or she crafts his/her platform of governance. That platform should have an ideological construct, the kind that inspires and yet, delivers the goods eventually. To be different, a politician must be able to prove that his platform works based on his years' of experience in public service.
Judging from the list of political parties constituting the political spectrum, the Liberal Party holds the most promise. It has a fresh image. However, its posturing is not enough to qualify it as a non-traditional political party. Until now, Mar Roxas has not communicated the reasons why people should vote for Liberal Party or for him come 2010. Yes, he has his palengke tours. Yes, he has remonstrated his opposition in some of the palace moves. Yet, Mar Roxas still lacks political differentiation because he has not been as maverick as Trillianes is in the minds of the public.
Likewise, Mar Roxas shows no "halos" so to speak, that the public saw with Erap and Ramos. Roxas should command a stable following and the public should see it. Roxas should be seen as a rebel with a cause, the kind that inspires and not just for publicity sake. He should do it by 2008. Otherwise, he'll lose momentum and probably could suffer the fate of one of LP's stalwart, former Senator Salonga.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
RPM Prescription 2
The Economic system: Beneficent Capitalism
The economic system is basically capitalist yet operating under socialist control. It is similar to the Chinese model where free enterprise is being exercised in selected industries where it is strong. Underdeveloped industries are protected from globalism through government intervention. Government intervention is limited to sectoral laws, not management. Management is to be exercised by specialists, not by government agents.
The system has a spillover mechanism that ensures the lower classes to benefit from economic gains. Through existing government agencies like the SSS, GSIS and Pag-ibig, the collective economic gains are to benefit those in the lower rungs of society.
The Political System
The polity shall be governed like a corporation, with its own Board of Directors as represented by a Council. A president shall be appointed to serve as the spokesperson of the Council. Members of the Council or Board shall emanate from the People's Congress, which are to be elected by the People in direct elections. To be a member of the Council, one must be directly elected by the members of the People's representatives themselves in open balloting.
Council of Elders
A Council of Elders shall be formed with past presidents sitting as counselors. This Council shall likewise have members from the senior ranks belonging to People's organizations, Non-Governmental Organisations and even dissident or insurgent groups. They shall create policies and vote as a whole. However, these policies shall be in the form of recommendations to the Council.
The Board
The Board or the Council shall be the implementing agency of the state. They shall implement laws enacted by the People's Congress. They shall have control over the armed forces and enjoys police power to enforce the laws throughout the archipelago.
Members of the regional congress shall form part of the Board.
The People's Congress
The People's Congress is the legislative arm of the state. It shall be composed of people's representatives elected by the people themselves through direct elections. How to be a member of the people's congress?
Elections shall be held in the barangay level. Those elected as chairmen of the barangays shall form the city or town congress. Among members of the town congress, they shall elect their representatives: one for the provincial congress and the others, as executive officers (Mayors, Vice Mayor, etc.). Those elected from the provincial congress shall form part of the regional congress. Members of the regional congress shall elect their representative. Those elected as regional representatives shall join the Board.
Members of the provincial congress shall represent the people in the People's Congress.
The Bureaucracy
The bureaucracy shall operate as corporations. Every department or agency of government shall have its own Board. Critical departments shall be headed by members of the State Board.
Every board shall be represented by one regional congress representative, one NGO or PO representative, one or two members of the academe of their choice and senior career professionals. They shall elect their own president to serve as the board spokesperson or representative.
Nature of the struggle
The RPM believes in the concept of revolution. It embraces revolution as a necessary tool for change. It accepts the notion of peaceful revolution yet recognizes the necessity of armed struggle.
The strategy
RPM recognizes that strategy depends on the existing objective conditions of the society. In the current state of affairs, RPM believes that a combination of both peaceful or parliamentary and armed struggle are necessary.
Analysis of 2010 elections
RPM believes that the current administration is determined to launch countermeasures to prevent a presidential elections in 2010. First, the head of state is threatened by a scenario of change. Second, its allies are fearful of persecution. And third, the ruling party's own existence is also threatened by an expected defeat in the polls in 2010. There are strong indications that a parliamentary shift is being done in the woodworks.
However, RPM is ready to support young leaders to the highest echelons of power. Should an election occurs in 2010, RPM will support Senator Mar Roxas as president and Senator Loren Legarda as vice president, provided that they support RPM's vision of an open democratic Filipino society
The economic system is basically capitalist yet operating under socialist control. It is similar to the Chinese model where free enterprise is being exercised in selected industries where it is strong. Underdeveloped industries are protected from globalism through government intervention. Government intervention is limited to sectoral laws, not management. Management is to be exercised by specialists, not by government agents.
The system has a spillover mechanism that ensures the lower classes to benefit from economic gains. Through existing government agencies like the SSS, GSIS and Pag-ibig, the collective economic gains are to benefit those in the lower rungs of society.
The Political System
The polity shall be governed like a corporation, with its own Board of Directors as represented by a Council. A president shall be appointed to serve as the spokesperson of the Council. Members of the Council or Board shall emanate from the People's Congress, which are to be elected by the People in direct elections. To be a member of the Council, one must be directly elected by the members of the People's representatives themselves in open balloting.
Council of Elders
A Council of Elders shall be formed with past presidents sitting as counselors. This Council shall likewise have members from the senior ranks belonging to People's organizations, Non-Governmental Organisations and even dissident or insurgent groups. They shall create policies and vote as a whole. However, these policies shall be in the form of recommendations to the Council.
The Board
The Board or the Council shall be the implementing agency of the state. They shall implement laws enacted by the People's Congress. They shall have control over the armed forces and enjoys police power to enforce the laws throughout the archipelago.
Members of the regional congress shall form part of the Board.
The People's Congress
The People's Congress is the legislative arm of the state. It shall be composed of people's representatives elected by the people themselves through direct elections. How to be a member of the people's congress?
Elections shall be held in the barangay level. Those elected as chairmen of the barangays shall form the city or town congress. Among members of the town congress, they shall elect their representatives: one for the provincial congress and the others, as executive officers (Mayors, Vice Mayor, etc.). Those elected from the provincial congress shall form part of the regional congress. Members of the regional congress shall elect their representative. Those elected as regional representatives shall join the Board.
Members of the provincial congress shall represent the people in the People's Congress.
The Bureaucracy
The bureaucracy shall operate as corporations. Every department or agency of government shall have its own Board. Critical departments shall be headed by members of the State Board.
Every board shall be represented by one regional congress representative, one NGO or PO representative, one or two members of the academe of their choice and senior career professionals. They shall elect their own president to serve as the board spokesperson or representative.
Nature of the struggle
The RPM believes in the concept of revolution. It embraces revolution as a necessary tool for change. It accepts the notion of peaceful revolution yet recognizes the necessity of armed struggle.
The strategy
RPM recognizes that strategy depends on the existing objective conditions of the society. In the current state of affairs, RPM believes that a combination of both peaceful or parliamentary and armed struggle are necessary.
Analysis of 2010 elections
RPM believes that the current administration is determined to launch countermeasures to prevent a presidential elections in 2010. First, the head of state is threatened by a scenario of change. Second, its allies are fearful of persecution. And third, the ruling party's own existence is also threatened by an expected defeat in the polls in 2010. There are strong indications that a parliamentary shift is being done in the woodworks.
However, RPM is ready to support young leaders to the highest echelons of power. Should an election occurs in 2010, RPM will support Senator Mar Roxas as president and Senator Loren Legarda as vice president, provided that they support RPM's vision of an open democratic Filipino society
Revolutionary Philippines Movement Analysis of Society 1
On December 30, the birthday of Jose Rizal, I plan to launch the Revolutionary Philippines Movement or RPM. It is high time for individuals like me to stand up and be counted.
What is the objective of this movement?
This movement aims to build and create an open democratic Filipino society. An Open Democratic Filipino society is defined as a society which respects individual rights under a just regime. It fosters beneficial capitalism which encourages free enterprise for the benefit of the collective whole.
Analysis of Filipino Society
The current state of Filipino society is that of a semi-capitalist, semi-colonial system where there are pockets of development scattered throughout the archipelago. It is semi-colonial because the economic system is still dependent on foreign capital to survive. Foreign interests from the United States and China continues to influence much of Filipino policies.
State of Politics
The state of politics is that of patronage politics where leaders are elected based not on qualifications but based on wealth and force. This antiquated system is the root cause of collective misery due to its nature. Those elected to high positions of power are not true representatives of the people.
State of Economy
Despite the 7 percent growth of the economy, majority of the people continue to live in dire poverty. This owes to the very nature of the economic system, which is pure capitalism. Economic gains do not redound to the benefit of the collective because there is no spillover mechanism that ensures the steady flow of these gains from the upper to the lower echelons.
The State
Filipino society is under siege by an illegitimate regime composed of aristocrats and plutocrats. The state uses aggression as a weapon against its enemies. Due to its desire for self-preservation, it launches armed attacks against its citizens while parlaying criticisms through legal weapons.
The state does not respect human rights. It kidnaps citizens, tears whole families apart and changes laws to benefit itself. It has assumed a garrison-like existence where the administration surrounds itself with voracious and corrupt allies to survive day-to-day. The state is not responsive to the people's needs. It is being hostaged by various interests for the sake of its own survival
What is the objective of this movement?
This movement aims to build and create an open democratic Filipino society. An Open Democratic Filipino society is defined as a society which respects individual rights under a just regime. It fosters beneficial capitalism which encourages free enterprise for the benefit of the collective whole.
Analysis of Filipino Society
The current state of Filipino society is that of a semi-capitalist, semi-colonial system where there are pockets of development scattered throughout the archipelago. It is semi-colonial because the economic system is still dependent on foreign capital to survive. Foreign interests from the United States and China continues to influence much of Filipino policies.
State of Politics
The state of politics is that of patronage politics where leaders are elected based not on qualifications but based on wealth and force. This antiquated system is the root cause of collective misery due to its nature. Those elected to high positions of power are not true representatives of the people.
State of Economy
Despite the 7 percent growth of the economy, majority of the people continue to live in dire poverty. This owes to the very nature of the economic system, which is pure capitalism. Economic gains do not redound to the benefit of the collective because there is no spillover mechanism that ensures the steady flow of these gains from the upper to the lower echelons.
The State
Filipino society is under siege by an illegitimate regime composed of aristocrats and plutocrats. The state uses aggression as a weapon against its enemies. Due to its desire for self-preservation, it launches armed attacks against its citizens while parlaying criticisms through legal weapons.
The state does not respect human rights. It kidnaps citizens, tears whole families apart and changes laws to benefit itself. It has assumed a garrison-like existence where the administration surrounds itself with voracious and corrupt allies to survive day-to-day. The state is not responsive to the people's needs. It is being hostaged by various interests for the sake of its own survival
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
39 Years of Revolutionary Struggle
Tomorrow, December 26, the Communist Party of the Philippines will be celebrating its 39th anniversary. CPP Chairman Armando Liwanag said that the revolutionary movement, the longest insurgency in the world, next to the Shining Path, continues to gain strength. The AFP issued a statement which said that the CPP-NPA-NDF has lost considerable troop strength from a high of 7,000 to a little above the 6,000. This, the AFP says, owes to the current administration's continued armed campaign to decimate the CPP-NPA-NDF by 2010.
Bold words, bad actions.
Obviously, the AFP cannot really kill the CPP-NPA-NDF. First, the AFP continues to have a very low trust rating with the people due to allegations of human rights violations. Second, the AFP is suffering setbacks after setbacks in the battlefield. The Marines, the creme de la creme of the armed establishment suffers from low morale. The corps suffers from battle fatigue and morale due to continued defeats against the Muslim mujaheddins in Sulu, Basilan and some parts of Mindanao. And third, in other theaters of war in the Philippine archipelago, the Army has suffered numerous deaths due to ambuscades and attacks on its camps.
The Reality
The reality is, the CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to exist even beyond Arroyo. For as long as the AFP remains under the weak leadership of an illegitimate leader, there will be major defeats in the field. Soldiers will die by the hundreds and more by the wayside. This is because the CPP-NPA-NDF and other insurgent groups continue to innovate. Note the message by Joma:
Sison said the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the CPP, is "gaining strength and advancing."
"It is increasing its platoon-size and company-size offensives and is looking forward to the building of mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity and to the development of relatively stable base areas on the basis of the guerrilla fronts," Sison said in a statement. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 25 December 2007)
Note this statement--the CPP-NPA-NDF is building mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity--meaning it is shifting from a regularized, standardized army setup to a more attuned guerilla setup. What it means is that the CPP-NPA-NDF will try to do some insurrectionary activities which punctuate its actions during the Marcos dictatorship. Expect more assassinations, bombings and other urban insurrectionary actions against the Establishment. This is indicative or an indirect admission that the revolutionary struggle should involve more urban attacks than being concentrated in the countrysides.
More about security issues for 2008 for the Philippines in my next blog.
Bold words, bad actions.
Obviously, the AFP cannot really kill the CPP-NPA-NDF. First, the AFP continues to have a very low trust rating with the people due to allegations of human rights violations. Second, the AFP is suffering setbacks after setbacks in the battlefield. The Marines, the creme de la creme of the armed establishment suffers from low morale. The corps suffers from battle fatigue and morale due to continued defeats against the Muslim mujaheddins in Sulu, Basilan and some parts of Mindanao. And third, in other theaters of war in the Philippine archipelago, the Army has suffered numerous deaths due to ambuscades and attacks on its camps.
The Reality
The reality is, the CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to exist even beyond Arroyo. For as long as the AFP remains under the weak leadership of an illegitimate leader, there will be major defeats in the field. Soldiers will die by the hundreds and more by the wayside. This is because the CPP-NPA-NDF and other insurgent groups continue to innovate. Note the message by Joma:
Sison said the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the CPP, is "gaining strength and advancing."
"It is increasing its platoon-size and company-size offensives and is looking forward to the building of mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity and to the development of relatively stable base areas on the basis of the guerrilla fronts," Sison said in a statement. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 25 December 2007)
Note this statement--the CPP-NPA-NDF is building mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity--meaning it is shifting from a regularized, standardized army setup to a more attuned guerilla setup. What it means is that the CPP-NPA-NDF will try to do some insurrectionary activities which punctuate its actions during the Marcos dictatorship. Expect more assassinations, bombings and other urban insurrectionary actions against the Establishment. This is indicative or an indirect admission that the revolutionary struggle should involve more urban attacks than being concentrated in the countrysides.
More about security issues for 2008 for the Philippines in my next blog.
2008 Start of the Presidential Campaign
If a coup does not occur in either January or February 2008, chances are the following configurations will happen on route to 2010.
Roxas-Legarda
There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did'nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon's reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.
Villar-Noli
Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo's party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli's camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.
Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte
There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando's candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.
Roxas-Noli
A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don't know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo's.
Binay-Estrada
Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?
Insider info
These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo's camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.
Curio
Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is---will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is--will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.
Roxas-Legarda
There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did'nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon's reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.
Villar-Noli
Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo's party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli's camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.
Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte
There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando's candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.
Roxas-Noli
A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don't know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo's.
Binay-Estrada
Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?
Insider info
These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo's camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.
Curio
Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is---will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is--will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Disturbing signs for 2008: GMA Administration--Hard headed or just plain stupid?
ZTE to be re-bidded in 2008
Government has just announced that they will be re-bidding the NBN project (dubbed ZTE deal) to local telcos in 2008. I bet my bottom Sing dollars that the one who will get it will still use ZTE technology. What the public does'nt know is that the technology being used by most local telcos came from ZTE. ZTE has been in operation in the Philippines since 2000. It is the major supplier of telecommunications equipment to most local telcos.
What this government will do is still award the contract to a local telco with strong tieup with ZTE. And the end result will still be harmful to the pockets of the Filipino People.
PR Contract worth US$ 50 Million
Senator Mar Roxas has just exposed another anomaly this administration entered into---a US$ 50 million worth of PR contract. That's roughly P 2 billion guys. A US-based lobby group has been tapped to improve the image and reputation of this government before the eyes of the Americans. And for what? To justify the illegal occupation of Malacanan by the conjugal republican monarchy? Some years ago, Filipinos militated against the Venable deal which could have cost the People 50 million pesos. Now, its at it again, spending billions for image reputation management.
Exports to grow only 6 percent
While government continually harp on the economic gains so to speak of the government, they are neglecting an important sector which is the export sector. Analysts say that the export industry will only grow by 6percent which is truly depressing considering the important role it plays in every country's national development. The BSP said that by 2008 it will relax forex controls to ease the burden of volatile forex rates to the people. That's good news for exporters whom I believe is having their worst year to date. However, government should take care of this very important sector since export industries are the key to sustained economic growth, not just sporadic growth which we are experiencing today.
40 now, 45 next year
Forex experts are predicting that the peso will slide to its comfortable level of 45 by next year. So, for those speculators out there or for some who want to earn some quick buck from their dollars, its better to buy dollars now then wait for next year to convert it. You'll earn at least 5 pesos more for every peso you spent buying those green bucks.
Filipinos still optimistic, says surveys
For all of these things, Filipinos are still optimistic that Christmas will be good for them. I don't know about that. For all I know, prices of commodities have increased substantially since last week. People are feeling this. And I don't think that government is capable enough of explaining why people are not buying enough stuff for their noche buena feasts. A year ago, 2,000 pesos is a lot. Now, it's a pittance. I really don't know what to be thankful for except perhaps that we are still alive despite the horrendous performance of this government. And I don't want to thank Arroyo for that. I am thanking God for that. Don't tell me that I owe every shred of my existence to Arroyo. Doing so would be blasphemy. And a lie.
Government has just announced that they will be re-bidding the NBN project (dubbed ZTE deal) to local telcos in 2008. I bet my bottom Sing dollars that the one who will get it will still use ZTE technology. What the public does'nt know is that the technology being used by most local telcos came from ZTE. ZTE has been in operation in the Philippines since 2000. It is the major supplier of telecommunications equipment to most local telcos.
What this government will do is still award the contract to a local telco with strong tieup with ZTE. And the end result will still be harmful to the pockets of the Filipino People.
PR Contract worth US$ 50 Million
Senator Mar Roxas has just exposed another anomaly this administration entered into---a US$ 50 million worth of PR contract. That's roughly P 2 billion guys. A US-based lobby group has been tapped to improve the image and reputation of this government before the eyes of the Americans. And for what? To justify the illegal occupation of Malacanan by the conjugal republican monarchy? Some years ago, Filipinos militated against the Venable deal which could have cost the People 50 million pesos. Now, its at it again, spending billions for image reputation management.
Exports to grow only 6 percent
While government continually harp on the economic gains so to speak of the government, they are neglecting an important sector which is the export sector. Analysts say that the export industry will only grow by 6percent which is truly depressing considering the important role it plays in every country's national development. The BSP said that by 2008 it will relax forex controls to ease the burden of volatile forex rates to the people. That's good news for exporters whom I believe is having their worst year to date. However, government should take care of this very important sector since export industries are the key to sustained economic growth, not just sporadic growth which we are experiencing today.
40 now, 45 next year
Forex experts are predicting that the peso will slide to its comfortable level of 45 by next year. So, for those speculators out there or for some who want to earn some quick buck from their dollars, its better to buy dollars now then wait for next year to convert it. You'll earn at least 5 pesos more for every peso you spent buying those green bucks.
Filipinos still optimistic, says surveys
For all of these things, Filipinos are still optimistic that Christmas will be good for them. I don't know about that. For all I know, prices of commodities have increased substantially since last week. People are feeling this. And I don't think that government is capable enough of explaining why people are not buying enough stuff for their noche buena feasts. A year ago, 2,000 pesos is a lot. Now, it's a pittance. I really don't know what to be thankful for except perhaps that we are still alive despite the horrendous performance of this government. And I don't want to thank Arroyo for that. I am thanking God for that. Don't tell me that I owe every shred of my existence to Arroyo. Doing so would be blasphemy. And a lie.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Involvement of the Church in the fight for freedom
"Huwag nating palawigin pa ang paghihikahos ng mga mahihirap"--Cardinal Rosales
("Don't prolong the agony of the poor)
Such words coming from the prelate of Manila gives us some things to think about this coming holidays. Cardinal Rosales sure knows what's happening on the ground. However, it puzzles me why the good cardinal still refuses to support moves to oust GMA. Certainly, Rosales knows that the poor's continued struggle against their current state of affairs lies in the ouster of the present government.
However, it pains me to think that Rosales seems to brush off the misgovernance being done by GMA etal. The solution is glaring yet so far from the minds of Rosales. He does'nt want to accept the fact that siding with the poor, especially the Sumilao farmers means giving up his alliance with GMA.
Cardinal, don't be a party to those whom oppresses the poor. Be one with the masses in their struggle against continued oppression.
("Don't prolong the agony of the poor)
Such words coming from the prelate of Manila gives us some things to think about this coming holidays. Cardinal Rosales sure knows what's happening on the ground. However, it puzzles me why the good cardinal still refuses to support moves to oust GMA. Certainly, Rosales knows that the poor's continued struggle against their current state of affairs lies in the ouster of the present government.
However, it pains me to think that Rosales seems to brush off the misgovernance being done by GMA etal. The solution is glaring yet so far from the minds of Rosales. He does'nt want to accept the fact that siding with the poor, especially the Sumilao farmers means giving up his alliance with GMA.
Cardinal, don't be a party to those whom oppresses the poor. Be one with the masses in their struggle against continued oppression.
Esperon is sure to be extended
Reports are being published about the possible extension of Esperon's term. The AFP Chief of Staff will retire from service on February and there are persistent reports of him being extended by the president. On the ground, people including his wife are campaigning for his extension. Other generals are waiting in the wings, but I believe that they are bound to wait much longer since there are indications that GMA will extend the general's term of service.
Surely, since politics is involved in this, there are some things that will happen to justify an Esperon extension. First, people close to him will test the ground so to speak and launch a PR campaign for him. This is happening now with the sudden increase of news articles about his impending retirement. Second, incidents concerning peace and order will occur possibly in January and extending up to the 1st week of February "necessitating" an extension of the AFP Chief of Staff's term. And third, these incidents would probably involve destabilization to force GMA to decide on Esperon's fate sooner than later.
Esperon is the longest serving general under the Arroyo administration. His administration has been the most violent so far, punctuated by numerous human rights violations.
Possible scenarios
People close to him will definitely use the "Magdalo threat" bogey to force GMA to decide for an extension. This early, there are signs that the AFP is quietly containing the threat by the release of 53 Magdalo soldiers. Obviously, the AFP knows already that there are new recruits from the military due to the Peninsula incident and its only a matter of time before another bigger incident occurs.
What is certain
Certainly, expect some fireworks to happen before the New Year extending up to the first week of January. First in the agenda would possibly be the PMA homecoming celebration which is sure to happen before the year ends? Second, reports will increase about this growing dissent from civil society groups due to the increasing corrupt practices under this administration. A struggle between two groups are happening and it will just be a matter of time before this blows over.
For now, let's celebrate Christmas and look forward to a new order by 2008.
Surely, since politics is involved in this, there are some things that will happen to justify an Esperon extension. First, people close to him will test the ground so to speak and launch a PR campaign for him. This is happening now with the sudden increase of news articles about his impending retirement. Second, incidents concerning peace and order will occur possibly in January and extending up to the 1st week of February "necessitating" an extension of the AFP Chief of Staff's term. And third, these incidents would probably involve destabilization to force GMA to decide on Esperon's fate sooner than later.
Esperon is the longest serving general under the Arroyo administration. His administration has been the most violent so far, punctuated by numerous human rights violations.
Possible scenarios
People close to him will definitely use the "Magdalo threat" bogey to force GMA to decide for an extension. This early, there are signs that the AFP is quietly containing the threat by the release of 53 Magdalo soldiers. Obviously, the AFP knows already that there are new recruits from the military due to the Peninsula incident and its only a matter of time before another bigger incident occurs.
What is certain
Certainly, expect some fireworks to happen before the New Year extending up to the first week of January. First in the agenda would possibly be the PMA homecoming celebration which is sure to happen before the year ends? Second, reports will increase about this growing dissent from civil society groups due to the increasing corrupt practices under this administration. A struggle between two groups are happening and it will just be a matter of time before this blows over.
For now, let's celebrate Christmas and look forward to a new order by 2008.
Monday, December 17, 2007
The Revolt of the Poor and the Rise of the New Bonifacio
It's just a few days before xmas. And despite the glitter of lights and the cool breeze, there's an uncanny sense of dread. Almost everyone feels this, except those hiding in the Philippines' version of Bastille.
The bible says there's a season for everything. And this season seems to be a momentary respite. Looking at history, this season seems like those of centuries past when Katipuneros were fighting their Spanish oppressors. There's a revolution being planned and I can feel it festering, like a fire being stoked gently.
I've been reading again, desirous to find answers to all these events. Assessing the current situation, I find that victory is almost, almost at arm's length. What Trillianes did was not a monumental mistake, as what some thought it was. In strategy, I find that a Japanese warrior advised to test the strategy over and over again until victory is achieved.
What the Peninsula siege achieved was it exposed the societal rift wide open. It was the first cry of freedom. It was like the Cry of Balintawak, when Katipuneros tore their cedulas and announced their struggle against the oppressors.
On hindsight, it was not a siege that happened. For Trillianes etal did not take the Peninsula hostage. It was more like a prelude. A symbolic incident, a start, a beginning of something new, something liberating, something noble.
Like all revolts, the Revolt of the Poor will happen despite all the efforts of this government to contain it. When a state continues its oppression, liberation is not far behind.
The bible says there's a season for everything. And this season seems to be a momentary respite. Looking at history, this season seems like those of centuries past when Katipuneros were fighting their Spanish oppressors. There's a revolution being planned and I can feel it festering, like a fire being stoked gently.
I've been reading again, desirous to find answers to all these events. Assessing the current situation, I find that victory is almost, almost at arm's length. What Trillianes did was not a monumental mistake, as what some thought it was. In strategy, I find that a Japanese warrior advised to test the strategy over and over again until victory is achieved.
What the Peninsula siege achieved was it exposed the societal rift wide open. It was the first cry of freedom. It was like the Cry of Balintawak, when Katipuneros tore their cedulas and announced their struggle against the oppressors.
On hindsight, it was not a siege that happened. For Trillianes etal did not take the Peninsula hostage. It was more like a prelude. A symbolic incident, a start, a beginning of something new, something liberating, something noble.
Like all revolts, the Revolt of the Poor will happen despite all the efforts of this government to contain it. When a state continues its oppression, liberation is not far behind.
A rat for a General?
A certain Col. Martir is slated to be confirmed as a Brigadier General tomorrow. This colonel is very close to Esperon, one of the chief (cheap) tuta of the Top Tuta around. He's the one who allegedly manhandled Senator Trillianes during the Peninsula siege.
I dare the Senators to confirm him and immediately order him to be assigned in Sulu. And I will bet my one million pesos that he'll be instantaneously killed there.
Life is just one big wheel. There will come a day when those whom Martir stomped at their faces after the Peninsula siege will then be the ones who'll stomp their feet at his face. And it will be just a few weeks from now.
I dare the Senators to confirm him and immediately order him to be assigned in Sulu. And I will bet my one million pesos that he'll be instantaneously killed there.
Life is just one big wheel. There will come a day when those whom Martir stomped at their faces after the Peninsula siege will then be the ones who'll stomp their feet at his face. And it will be just a few weeks from now.
Slower Economy, Higher Prices in 2008 and the Sumilao Model
NEDA has just raised the bar of economic growth for the Philippines in 2008: from 6.1 to 6.7%. Compared this year, this is lower than the nearly 7% growth the economy achieved. NEDA's projection is still higher than the projected 6% growth of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank.
Whether its 6% or 7%, there's one undeniable fact--the growth rate of the Philippines is catching up with its neighbours. However, there's a catch--slower growth, higher prices of commodities. And government is helpless to stem its rise.
It may be good news for foreign and local investors. It's surely bad news for 89 million Filipinos. Without a rise in pay, Filipinos will surely find 2008 as one of the hardest, if not the hardest year to date.
Government should form a task force that would address the issues Filipinos will confront in 2008. For example, with the rising strength of the peso, how many hundreds of thousands of Filipinos will join the under and unemployed? Will our export industries also catch up with their strong foreign counterparts? What safety nets would government setup to protect the poor?
The World Bank says agriculture is the best bet of the Philippines in 2008. Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap should now plan ahead to make agriculture a prime engine for growth. The rise in agriculture production in 2007 is still not competitive because there's still a gap or a shortage between local and foreign demands. Food security levels are still not stable. Chinese agricultural products continue to flood the market, yes, threatening local agri companies. These and some other threats continue to affect millions of rural-based Filipinos, making them a fertile ground of insurgencies and terrorism.
Net of discussion
The agricultural sector is the poorest sector of Filipino society. Almost 65% of Filipinos still get their livelihood from the fatness of the land. Without a safety net, government will surely have their hands full containing pockets of resistance and dissent from the countrysides. It is not surprising that millions of Filipinos are dying due to hunger in the rural areas precisely because of the disparity in their incomes with that of the commodity prices. A stronger economy in the case of the Philippines does not mean a better life for the Filipino. In fact, we are the only country who continues to grow economically but slowly stagnate because the people who's supposed to benefit from these economic gains continue to be in the end of the bargain. Such inequality will eventually "catch up" with us in a form of a revolution.
Whether its 6% or 7%, there's one undeniable fact--the growth rate of the Philippines is catching up with its neighbours. However, there's a catch--slower growth, higher prices of commodities. And government is helpless to stem its rise.
It may be good news for foreign and local investors. It's surely bad news for 89 million Filipinos. Without a rise in pay, Filipinos will surely find 2008 as one of the hardest, if not the hardest year to date.
Government should form a task force that would address the issues Filipinos will confront in 2008. For example, with the rising strength of the peso, how many hundreds of thousands of Filipinos will join the under and unemployed? Will our export industries also catch up with their strong foreign counterparts? What safety nets would government setup to protect the poor?
The World Bank says agriculture is the best bet of the Philippines in 2008. Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap should now plan ahead to make agriculture a prime engine for growth. The rise in agriculture production in 2007 is still not competitive because there's still a gap or a shortage between local and foreign demands. Food security levels are still not stable. Chinese agricultural products continue to flood the market, yes, threatening local agri companies. These and some other threats continue to affect millions of rural-based Filipinos, making them a fertile ground of insurgencies and terrorism.
Net of discussion
The agricultural sector is the poorest sector of Filipino society. Almost 65% of Filipinos still get their livelihood from the fatness of the land. Without a safety net, government will surely have their hands full containing pockets of resistance and dissent from the countrysides. It is not surprising that millions of Filipinos are dying due to hunger in the rural areas precisely because of the disparity in their incomes with that of the commodity prices. A stronger economy in the case of the Philippines does not mean a better life for the Filipino. In fact, we are the only country who continues to grow economically but slowly stagnate because the people who's supposed to benefit from these economic gains continue to be in the end of the bargain. Such inequality will eventually "catch up" with us in a form of a revolution.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Civilian or Military rule?
Why is there a debate on who’s better to rule this country—civilians or the military? Some columnists say that the reason why some people disagree with what happened in 29 November 2007 is the apparent fear of some civil society members on the prospect of military rule. Why will we fear military rule when, for all intents and purposes, civilian rule has proven to be quite ineffective in governance? Also, this debate should not be discussed at this point because it is quite evident that we have’nt yet succeeded in weakening Arroyo.
After the November 29 siege of the Peninsula, momentum has considerably lessened. Like magic, talks about the ZTE, the palace bribery and the rising graft incidence have all but vanished. We don’t see Senators scrambling to initiate the ZTE probe. Nor do we see Cayetano or Escudero hammering Malacanan for a repeat bout. Even the presidentiables, namely Villar, Roxas and Legarda have all clammed up. Why?
The inability of these personalities to finish what they have started in the first place shows their true character. This tendency to grandstand for the sake of their political careers bolster public demands for the abolition of this “hallowed” chamber. Obviously, these senators were asked by the palace not to rock the boat, when, senators should consider the primary interest of the public to know than national security.
Going back, for the past few years, civilians have proven to be quite ineffective in governance. What’s wrong with testing military rule? Those who argue against military rule use the Marcos dictatorship as an example.
The Marcos dictatorship is not, I say, not an argument against military rule. This form of governance was not purely military. It’s a civilian-led dictatorship. Filipinos have not tried military rule. And to write against it at this point is premature.
What groups should need to ask themselves is this— how will they strengthen their ranks in the fight against Arroyo. What are the common tasks and points they need to push this fight to its logical conclusion?
Wittingly or unwittingly, these armchair revolutionaries are allowing themselves to participate in the psywar being done by the ruling clique. By using their time and resources debating on who's better, these groups should instead sit down and strategize. Arroyo is slowly regaining her bearings and it will be just a matter of time before she regains full strength. When that happens, two scenarios are sure to happen: No-elections and continued conjugal dictatorship.
Its time to act rather than talk.
After the November 29 siege of the Peninsula, momentum has considerably lessened. Like magic, talks about the ZTE, the palace bribery and the rising graft incidence have all but vanished. We don’t see Senators scrambling to initiate the ZTE probe. Nor do we see Cayetano or Escudero hammering Malacanan for a repeat bout. Even the presidentiables, namely Villar, Roxas and Legarda have all clammed up. Why?
The inability of these personalities to finish what they have started in the first place shows their true character. This tendency to grandstand for the sake of their political careers bolster public demands for the abolition of this “hallowed” chamber. Obviously, these senators were asked by the palace not to rock the boat, when, senators should consider the primary interest of the public to know than national security.
Going back, for the past few years, civilians have proven to be quite ineffective in governance. What’s wrong with testing military rule? Those who argue against military rule use the Marcos dictatorship as an example.
The Marcos dictatorship is not, I say, not an argument against military rule. This form of governance was not purely military. It’s a civilian-led dictatorship. Filipinos have not tried military rule. And to write against it at this point is premature.
What groups should need to ask themselves is this— how will they strengthen their ranks in the fight against Arroyo. What are the common tasks and points they need to push this fight to its logical conclusion?
Wittingly or unwittingly, these armchair revolutionaries are allowing themselves to participate in the psywar being done by the ruling clique. By using their time and resources debating on who's better, these groups should instead sit down and strategize. Arroyo is slowly regaining her bearings and it will be just a matter of time before she regains full strength. When that happens, two scenarios are sure to happen: No-elections and continued conjugal dictatorship.
Its time to act rather than talk.
The COPA deadline in January 2008
Today's release of the remaining November 29 Movement members forebode ill to Arroyo's continued rule. Marching outside the PNP Custodial Center where they were kept for 16 days, these leaders vowed to continue the fight to oust Arroyo from power.
Obviously, the next few weeks will see a decrease of political activities. Groups will obviously lie low and prepare for the political battles in January 2008. The first quarter of the new year is interesting because that'll (1) be the end of the deadline set by the Council on Political Affairs (COPA) to Mrs. Arroyo. At the start of the ZTE controversy and the release of former president Estrada, COPA gave Mrs. Arroyo a deadline to reform. COPA said that they see a window of opportunity in the first quarter of the year.
We all know the capability of COPA. By and large, COPA was the one who led the anti-Erap movement that installed Mrs. Arroyo to power. The question that everyone is asking--does COPA still have the strength to lead an ouster attempt? Strength in this case equates to military power. Do they still keep a strong influence in the military establishment?
Next year, Esperon is slated to retire as AFP chief. By the looks of it, Esperon's term will end also in the 1st quarter of next year. There are three personalities being floated around---Tolentino, Marine Commandant Dolorfino and the Army Chief Yano. Yano seems to be the anointed one, and Dolorfino the dark horse. What these generals however forget is the possibility of Esperon continuing his stay in the military.
By and large, the prospect of success by anti-Arroyo groups seemed to have deemed after the Peninsula debacle. Many people whom I talked said that Trillianes should have stayed in the Peninsula a day longer and Arroyo could have been decimated right then and there. There are talks that Trillianes is the one causing the defeat of the opposition because of his foolhardy moves. We don't know for sure. But, if I'm Trillianes, I'll lay all my cards on the floor and really lead instead of just inspiring.
Obviously, the next few weeks will see a decrease of political activities. Groups will obviously lie low and prepare for the political battles in January 2008. The first quarter of the new year is interesting because that'll (1) be the end of the deadline set by the Council on Political Affairs (COPA) to Mrs. Arroyo. At the start of the ZTE controversy and the release of former president Estrada, COPA gave Mrs. Arroyo a deadline to reform. COPA said that they see a window of opportunity in the first quarter of the year.
We all know the capability of COPA. By and large, COPA was the one who led the anti-Erap movement that installed Mrs. Arroyo to power. The question that everyone is asking--does COPA still have the strength to lead an ouster attempt? Strength in this case equates to military power. Do they still keep a strong influence in the military establishment?
Next year, Esperon is slated to retire as AFP chief. By the looks of it, Esperon's term will end also in the 1st quarter of next year. There are three personalities being floated around---Tolentino, Marine Commandant Dolorfino and the Army Chief Yano. Yano seems to be the anointed one, and Dolorfino the dark horse. What these generals however forget is the possibility of Esperon continuing his stay in the military.
By and large, the prospect of success by anti-Arroyo groups seemed to have deemed after the Peninsula debacle. Many people whom I talked said that Trillianes should have stayed in the Peninsula a day longer and Arroyo could have been decimated right then and there. There are talks that Trillianes is the one causing the defeat of the opposition because of his foolhardy moves. We don't know for sure. But, if I'm Trillianes, I'll lay all my cards on the floor and really lead instead of just inspiring.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Unveiling Arroyo's Hidden Plan
Now, it's all beginning to make sense. That trip to meet Europe's royalties exposed the hidden desires of the First Family to be the Philippine's number one royalty. While Filipinos' busy themselves making preparations for the holidays, Arroyo unleashed her lapdogs in Congress to file a resolution calling for a Constitutional Convention. Obviously, Arroyo wants to extend her term through constitutional change of governance. That only means that Arroyo wants to rule beyond 2010. This explains why Arroyo brought 40 or so legislators to Europe to show to them their futures if they support a constitutional monarchical setup under an Arroyo constitutional monarchy.
A Constitutional Monarchy?
Yes, a constitutional monarchy. A change in government shall allow Arroyo to run again in Pampanga. With Arroyo's Kampi and Lakas allies, there's a big possibility of Arroyo being elected as Prime Minister. IF JDV continues to hope for this, he's mistaken. Arroyo's lust for power remains boundless and insatiable. She wants to be the sovereign power until, maybe, her death.
No Elections in 2010?
That's what we know. Why would Adelmiro Amante and Vic Ortega initiate such moves without the expressed blessing of their principal, who is Arroyo? Surely, these stooges made this move
Will this happen?
Yes. Chacha is part of the grand strategic plan to ensure Arroyo's rule as sovereign. Damn Roxas, Damn Ramos, Damn Erap, Damn Aquino, Arroyo is the name to beat when it comes to political power!
And why will this happen? Because the AFP and the PNP (Esperon and Razon) remain Arroyo's stooges and lapdogs. They remain her knights in shining armor.
Too late a hero
However, more than this is the fact that the opposition remains fragmented due to their individual interests. Ramos already told this administration that chacha was the best option in 2005. His advice then was not heeded because Arroyo has'nt decimated the ranks of her enemies back then.
Now that her enemies' ranks have been fractured and debilitated, Arroyo and her loyal knights are now bold enough to force chacha down the throats of every Filipino.
Arroyo--No. 1 Most Corrupt Philippine Leader
A survey by a reputable firm shows that most Filipinos think or perceive Arroyo as the number one most corrupt Philippine leader this country has ever produced. Malacanan tried to divert the attention of the people by (1) defending Arroyo's corrupt actions by saying that she inherited problems from her predecessors (2) she is working to make the economy better and (3) different government agencies are trying very hard to prosecute grafters in her government.
Bull. What crap!
Arroyo has been in power since 2001, or six years already. Whatever problems she inherited from Estrada, Ramos or Aquino should have been solved already. If Malacanan says that these bad things happening are just "inherited" stuff, then, this shows how inefficient a leader Arroyo is.
Second, as I wrote here, the economy benefits from the growth of the regional economy. Three things contribute to the continued survival of the economy. One, the billions of OFW monies being infused every month. Two, the weakening state of the US dollar which redounds to the benefit of the peso. And third, the very nature of the economic markets in the Philippines itself.
However, how would the Arroyo administration explain the continuing decrease of foreign direct investments in the Philippines? How would they explain the worsening reputation of the Philippines as a viable investment site?
Lastly, Malacanan'g defense saying that government agencies are trying to prosecute grafters to the best of its abilities--its full of crap. Have they explained fully who's responsible for the ZTE mess? Have they prosecuted Abalos and FG? Did they prosecuted the ones responsible for the overpriced sale of coal to Napocor worth 500 million pesos? Did Arroyo ever lifted a finger arresting and booking grafters in the BIR, Customs and different government agencies? A million times no!
A Constitutional Monarchy?
Yes, a constitutional monarchy. A change in government shall allow Arroyo to run again in Pampanga. With Arroyo's Kampi and Lakas allies, there's a big possibility of Arroyo being elected as Prime Minister. IF JDV continues to hope for this, he's mistaken. Arroyo's lust for power remains boundless and insatiable. She wants to be the sovereign power until, maybe, her death.
No Elections in 2010?
That's what we know. Why would Adelmiro Amante and Vic Ortega initiate such moves without the expressed blessing of their principal, who is Arroyo? Surely, these stooges made this move
Will this happen?
Yes. Chacha is part of the grand strategic plan to ensure Arroyo's rule as sovereign. Damn Roxas, Damn Ramos, Damn Erap, Damn Aquino, Arroyo is the name to beat when it comes to political power!
And why will this happen? Because the AFP and the PNP (Esperon and Razon) remain Arroyo's stooges and lapdogs. They remain her knights in shining armor.
Too late a hero
However, more than this is the fact that the opposition remains fragmented due to their individual interests. Ramos already told this administration that chacha was the best option in 2005. His advice then was not heeded because Arroyo has'nt decimated the ranks of her enemies back then.
Now that her enemies' ranks have been fractured and debilitated, Arroyo and her loyal knights are now bold enough to force chacha down the throats of every Filipino.
Arroyo--No. 1 Most Corrupt Philippine Leader
A survey by a reputable firm shows that most Filipinos think or perceive Arroyo as the number one most corrupt Philippine leader this country has ever produced. Malacanan tried to divert the attention of the people by (1) defending Arroyo's corrupt actions by saying that she inherited problems from her predecessors (2) she is working to make the economy better and (3) different government agencies are trying very hard to prosecute grafters in her government.
Bull. What crap!
Arroyo has been in power since 2001, or six years already. Whatever problems she inherited from Estrada, Ramos or Aquino should have been solved already. If Malacanan says that these bad things happening are just "inherited" stuff, then, this shows how inefficient a leader Arroyo is.
Second, as I wrote here, the economy benefits from the growth of the regional economy. Three things contribute to the continued survival of the economy. One, the billions of OFW monies being infused every month. Two, the weakening state of the US dollar which redounds to the benefit of the peso. And third, the very nature of the economic markets in the Philippines itself.
However, how would the Arroyo administration explain the continuing decrease of foreign direct investments in the Philippines? How would they explain the worsening reputation of the Philippines as a viable investment site?
Lastly, Malacanan'g defense saying that government agencies are trying to prosecute grafters to the best of its abilities--its full of crap. Have they explained fully who's responsible for the ZTE mess? Have they prosecuted Abalos and FG? Did they prosecuted the ones responsible for the overpriced sale of coal to Napocor worth 500 million pesos? Did Arroyo ever lifted a finger arresting and booking grafters in the BIR, Customs and different government agencies? A million times no!
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Measuring Economic Success
Gloria Arroyo just boasted before the European royals that "shes an excellent economist but the worst politician". She claimed that she's the one responsible for the strong economic showing of the Philippines.
Bull. And a lot of horse shit.
In a way, she IS responsible for the "phenomenal growth" of the economy. By really messing up here, making life intolerable and unbearable to millions of Filipinos, Arroyo prompted an exodus of workers and intelligent Filipinos. Their monies help stabilize the economy. It is no secret that the only thing that keeps this economy alive are billions of dollars worth of overseas remittances every month.
Also, she just happened to be president when the REGIONAL ECONOMY is having a blast. The emergence of China as an economic powerhouse, the excellent showing of other ASEAN countries and the influx of investments are natural occurrences of globalization. Investors have no choice but to go to the Philippines because it's one of the largest markets around--85 million people. Whether it's Arroyo or Erap or whoever, no investor will gloss the importance of the Philippines as a consumer market.
What then is the measure of economic success?
Arroyo can only claim to be an economist if the standard of living has improved. If the average salaried employee can own a house or if the amount of savings put by at least a fraction of Filipinos have increased, we can say that, indeed Arroyo has succeeded. If her government manages to lower the price of oil despite its increasing price in the global marketplace. If she manages to lower inflation and keeps the GDP in its strongest levels, then, we can say that indeed, the Philippines has achieved economic stability. And oh, by the way, if majority of Filipinos can say for sure that they are eating at least three times a day, everyday for a month, and not just noodles and tuyo mind you, but quality, healthy, nutritious food, that'll be the time that I can truly say, with certainty, that Arroyo is a consummate economist.
For now, all I can say is that Arroyo is a dreamy economist. I remember one of her speeches when she told the people to build an "enchanted kingdom" Well, Arroyo probably has dreamt of being queen. Yes, we do have an "enhanted kingdom" right now, with her as queen and FG as king. The only problem is, it only exists in the minds of the First Couple.
Bull. And a lot of horse shit.
In a way, she IS responsible for the "phenomenal growth" of the economy. By really messing up here, making life intolerable and unbearable to millions of Filipinos, Arroyo prompted an exodus of workers and intelligent Filipinos. Their monies help stabilize the economy. It is no secret that the only thing that keeps this economy alive are billions of dollars worth of overseas remittances every month.
Also, she just happened to be president when the REGIONAL ECONOMY is having a blast. The emergence of China as an economic powerhouse, the excellent showing of other ASEAN countries and the influx of investments are natural occurrences of globalization. Investors have no choice but to go to the Philippines because it's one of the largest markets around--85 million people. Whether it's Arroyo or Erap or whoever, no investor will gloss the importance of the Philippines as a consumer market.
What then is the measure of economic success?
Arroyo can only claim to be an economist if the standard of living has improved. If the average salaried employee can own a house or if the amount of savings put by at least a fraction of Filipinos have increased, we can say that, indeed Arroyo has succeeded. If her government manages to lower the price of oil despite its increasing price in the global marketplace. If she manages to lower inflation and keeps the GDP in its strongest levels, then, we can say that indeed, the Philippines has achieved economic stability. And oh, by the way, if majority of Filipinos can say for sure that they are eating at least three times a day, everyday for a month, and not just noodles and tuyo mind you, but quality, healthy, nutritious food, that'll be the time that I can truly say, with certainty, that Arroyo is a consummate economist.
For now, all I can say is that Arroyo is a dreamy economist. I remember one of her speeches when she told the people to build an "enchanted kingdom" Well, Arroyo probably has dreamt of being queen. Yes, we do have an "enhanted kingdom" right now, with her as queen and FG as king. The only problem is, it only exists in the minds of the First Couple.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
The Right Solution
The Philippines has placed tenth in the Global Bribery survey. Transparency International said in its report that the poor are the most hit in the worsening graft crisis ever to hit the country. The World Bank meanwhile said that poverty incidence has increased in the Philippines despite what the Arroyo administration says as the best economic performance ever. What do all these mean?
It means that these economic gains generated by a revitalized economy are not spilling over the masses but are being dissipated by corrupt groups in government. Those who control the levers of power are the ones benefiting from this inequality. Wealth continues to be concentrated in the hands of a few lucky ones close to the center of power. The disparity, says the World Bank, between the rich and the poor has increased because the system does not have the right spillover mechanism to enable the poor to at least get a slice of the economic gains.
This explains why the Philippines rank a close second to India in terms of the number of pessimistic people. Despite having a “sunshine” economy, most Pinoys are not happy. If you study the surveys, many are desperate and feel depressed. Many feel that they have nowhere to turn to. Since 1986, the people have searched in vain for the right solution. Always, the people fail to find one.
Those who don’t suffer the brunt of high prices or are insulated from the ravages of extreme poverty, they are the ones who discourage the people to revolt. For these few, the solution is still Gandhian. When you’re being killed slowly, will you still say “peace brother”? And by entertaining these thoughts, can you then be classified as a “coup plotter”, “ a war freak” or a “peace wrecker”?
Eventually, I believe, people will look at the palace and blame it for their current poverty. In dire times, people need to point on something or look at one direction to place the blame at. I shudder at the thought of seeing one day when poor people kill the rich because of their wealth. It has happened before in other countries.
Saving this country from chaos necessitates a collective effort. It may not be a coup. It definitely cannot be a revolt. It should be a pronunciamento. This could be the solution everybody is lusting for.
It means that these economic gains generated by a revitalized economy are not spilling over the masses but are being dissipated by corrupt groups in government. Those who control the levers of power are the ones benefiting from this inequality. Wealth continues to be concentrated in the hands of a few lucky ones close to the center of power. The disparity, says the World Bank, between the rich and the poor has increased because the system does not have the right spillover mechanism to enable the poor to at least get a slice of the economic gains.
This explains why the Philippines rank a close second to India in terms of the number of pessimistic people. Despite having a “sunshine” economy, most Pinoys are not happy. If you study the surveys, many are desperate and feel depressed. Many feel that they have nowhere to turn to. Since 1986, the people have searched in vain for the right solution. Always, the people fail to find one.
Those who don’t suffer the brunt of high prices or are insulated from the ravages of extreme poverty, they are the ones who discourage the people to revolt. For these few, the solution is still Gandhian. When you’re being killed slowly, will you still say “peace brother”? And by entertaining these thoughts, can you then be classified as a “coup plotter”, “ a war freak” or a “peace wrecker”?
Eventually, I believe, people will look at the palace and blame it for their current poverty. In dire times, people need to point on something or look at one direction to place the blame at. I shudder at the thought of seeing one day when poor people kill the rich because of their wealth. It has happened before in other countries.
Saving this country from chaos necessitates a collective effort. It may not be a coup. It definitely cannot be a revolt. It should be a pronunciamento. This could be the solution everybody is lusting for.
Why the absence of the masa in the Pen?
It is not true that the masa was'nt there when it happened. I was there. Hundreds were there. In fact, when the tanks came rolling in, a handful of people remarked that the marines would support Trillianes. A taxi driver whom I spoke with said that at least six bus-loads of people were supposed to join Trillianes but were blocked by the police along the way. Thousands more wanted to join Trillianes but were'nt able to go there. It was not because they don't want to. The Pen incident was spontaneous. A few knew about it. Had it continued until the morrow, it could have generated enough steam to actually entice, encourage hundreds or thousands of people to come join the party at the Pen.
So, I don't agree with most observations that the reason why a coup would fail here is the absence of the masa. That the people, allegedly, are already tired of all these EDSAs. I seriously doubt this observation. This is just part of psywar to discourage groups to launch something against Arroyo.
However, whether Trillianes is an Arroyo spy or not, one fact remained--the Pen incident served its purpose. The incident merited three (3) critical information to would-be plotters in the future:
1. GMA's defenses are illusionary. It is not as strong as before. Whatever people say that the response was sufficient, even "overacting", it is obvious that the government's forces are not that strong nor as many. In case of a shooting war, GMA's forces are sure to be defeated. I know other analysts will see it differently, but I stand with what I write here--in the next outing, GMA's forces will surely lose, even die by the hundreds.
2. GMA's survival in a situation like this is assured if they can neutralize any group within 18 hours. If less than 18 hours, they are sure to lose and this administration is sure to fall. The first 48 hours is the most critical moment. A more determined military group sans any public support can do the job of forcing the ouster of Arroyo. There must, however, be a series of actions directed not at one singular place, but of explosions of actions left and right in different places all at the same time.
3. Foreign governments will support the one who wins after the armed struggle. In the next outing, open fighting is expected. Whoever emerges the winners in this open fighting will definitely be recognized as the legitimate government.
I know many would disagree with what I write here, but given my high batting average (I predicted a coup right? ) in previous blogs, believe me, the one at the Pen is just a sampler, err, just a "testing", so to speak, for a bigger event in the next few weeks. Surely, it would not be long before freedom is attained.
So, I don't agree with most observations that the reason why a coup would fail here is the absence of the masa. That the people, allegedly, are already tired of all these EDSAs. I seriously doubt this observation. This is just part of psywar to discourage groups to launch something against Arroyo.
However, whether Trillianes is an Arroyo spy or not, one fact remained--the Pen incident served its purpose. The incident merited three (3) critical information to would-be plotters in the future:
1. GMA's defenses are illusionary. It is not as strong as before. Whatever people say that the response was sufficient, even "overacting", it is obvious that the government's forces are not that strong nor as many. In case of a shooting war, GMA's forces are sure to be defeated. I know other analysts will see it differently, but I stand with what I write here--in the next outing, GMA's forces will surely lose, even die by the hundreds.
2. GMA's survival in a situation like this is assured if they can neutralize any group within 18 hours. If less than 18 hours, they are sure to lose and this administration is sure to fall. The first 48 hours is the most critical moment. A more determined military group sans any public support can do the job of forcing the ouster of Arroyo. There must, however, be a series of actions directed not at one singular place, but of explosions of actions left and right in different places all at the same time.
3. Foreign governments will support the one who wins after the armed struggle. In the next outing, open fighting is expected. Whoever emerges the winners in this open fighting will definitely be recognized as the legitimate government.
I know many would disagree with what I write here, but given my high batting average (I predicted a coup right? ) in previous blogs, believe me, the one at the Pen is just a sampler, err, just a "testing", so to speak, for a bigger event in the next few weeks. Surely, it would not be long before freedom is attained.
The New Filipino Monarchy
I'm disturbed with the photo I saw just recently in one of the Philippines' broadsheets--a photo of the First Couple toasting with the rest of the royals of Europe.
Flashback---Macoy and Meldy sharing a good turkey with the royals of their time. Is this photo a portent of things to come? Are we seeing a revival of a conjugal dictatorship? Is this a sign that the Arroyos are now our new sovereigns?
It seems that's the case.
While millions die due to poverty, with a study showing that at least 21 million Filipinos eat just five times a week (not a day), our illegitimate usurpers wine and dine with the billionaires of the world.
While millions sweat it out abroad and millions more enslave themselves to inhumane conditions here, a handful of our legislators spend 12 million pesos on a junket just to be near the royals.
Who's to blame for all of these?
I am and the millions of my generation. We are to blame for this mess that we are in. For we allow these people to govern us. We allow these gut-less grafters to rob us, steal from us and ravage us with impunity.
We allow ourselves to be controlled. We let them trample our rights. We let them shame us, make our status low before the eyes of the world. For what? For the crumbs that they gave us.
We must be ashamed of ourselves. See story below. These children deserve to live more than we do. My generation deserved to be punished for being so stupid and so dumb weaklings. We sacrifice our freedoms because we hate armed revolution? Are we so crazy? We are slowly being killed and our response is just a meek " we want a peaceful resolution" to a monumental catastrophe like Arroyo?
There is a season for peace and definitely, a season for war. And the time to act is now.
Study: Children willingly join RP guerrilla groups
Agence France Presse
Children in the Philippines are willingly joining communist or Muslim separatist guerrilla groups to escape grinding poverty, a UNICEF commissioned study released Wednesday said.
The Ibon Foundation, which carried out the study, found fear of the military, poverty and limited social services were pushing some children to join the communist New People's Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
"The child respondents were all conscious of their poverty and the limited social services and options available to them," the report said.
"This volunteerism is premised on the credibility these groups have in the communities, a credibility which seems to be genuine and does not merely derive from sheer military control."
The study involved interviews with 430 people including children, women, local nongovernment organizations, officials and insurgents in conflict-affected areas.
UNICEF local representative Nicholas Alipui said unlike in some war-torn African nations, there was no forced recruitment of children into armed groups, but that "children should have no place in armed conflict at all, even if they want to join."
Armand Alamon, a consultant with the Ibon Foundation, said both the NPA and the MILF used youths below the age of 18 in non-combat roles such as couriers, spies, cooks and to run errands.
The United Nations has listed the Philippines as one of the countries which has "children associated with armed groups... as combatants or in nonmilitary roles," said Forossgh Foyouzat, the chief of the child protection section of the local UNICEF office.
"In the past, it was mainly the rebel groups that had child recruits but there were now reports of similar recruitment by pro-government militia forces," she said.
The report also said military forces were deliberately attacking civilians, including women and children, as part of their counter-insurgency campaign.
Ibon research head Jose Africa said there was "conscious targeting by the military of the civilians."
Alipui said the study was "not as balanced and completely unbiased" as he would like as it made no attempt to get the military's side.
But he said it was still an important report as it allowed the children's voices to be heard.
Flashback---Macoy and Meldy sharing a good turkey with the royals of their time. Is this photo a portent of things to come? Are we seeing a revival of a conjugal dictatorship? Is this a sign that the Arroyos are now our new sovereigns?
It seems that's the case.
While millions die due to poverty, with a study showing that at least 21 million Filipinos eat just five times a week (not a day), our illegitimate usurpers wine and dine with the billionaires of the world.
While millions sweat it out abroad and millions more enslave themselves to inhumane conditions here, a handful of our legislators spend 12 million pesos on a junket just to be near the royals.
Who's to blame for all of these?
I am and the millions of my generation. We are to blame for this mess that we are in. For we allow these people to govern us. We allow these gut-less grafters to rob us, steal from us and ravage us with impunity.
We allow ourselves to be controlled. We let them trample our rights. We let them shame us, make our status low before the eyes of the world. For what? For the crumbs that they gave us.
We must be ashamed of ourselves. See story below. These children deserve to live more than we do. My generation deserved to be punished for being so stupid and so dumb weaklings. We sacrifice our freedoms because we hate armed revolution? Are we so crazy? We are slowly being killed and our response is just a meek " we want a peaceful resolution" to a monumental catastrophe like Arroyo?
There is a season for peace and definitely, a season for war. And the time to act is now.
Study: Children willingly join RP guerrilla groups
Agence France Presse
Children in the Philippines are willingly joining communist or Muslim separatist guerrilla groups to escape grinding poverty, a UNICEF commissioned study released Wednesday said.
The Ibon Foundation, which carried out the study, found fear of the military, poverty and limited social services were pushing some children to join the communist New People's Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
"The child respondents were all conscious of their poverty and the limited social services and options available to them," the report said.
"This volunteerism is premised on the credibility these groups have in the communities, a credibility which seems to be genuine and does not merely derive from sheer military control."
The study involved interviews with 430 people including children, women, local nongovernment organizations, officials and insurgents in conflict-affected areas.
UNICEF local representative Nicholas Alipui said unlike in some war-torn African nations, there was no forced recruitment of children into armed groups, but that "children should have no place in armed conflict at all, even if they want to join."
Armand Alamon, a consultant with the Ibon Foundation, said both the NPA and the MILF used youths below the age of 18 in non-combat roles such as couriers, spies, cooks and to run errands.
The United Nations has listed the Philippines as one of the countries which has "children associated with armed groups... as combatants or in nonmilitary roles," said Forossgh Foyouzat, the chief of the child protection section of the local UNICEF office.
"In the past, it was mainly the rebel groups that had child recruits but there were now reports of similar recruitment by pro-government militia forces," she said.
The report also said military forces were deliberately attacking civilians, including women and children, as part of their counter-insurgency campaign.
Ibon research head Jose Africa said there was "conscious targeting by the military of the civilians."
Alipui said the study was "not as balanced and completely unbiased" as he would like as it made no attempt to get the military's side.
But he said it was still an important report as it allowed the children's voices to be heard.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Analysis of the Peninsula incident
To understand what happened last November 29, 2007, let's take a backward step and analyze this from a distance.
Coup or rebellion?
Was the incident a coup d'etat or a rebellion? Under Philippine jurisprudence, there are not enough elements to qualify the incident to either coup d'etat or rebellion. Inciting to rebellion would probably be their crime, not rebellion because they did'nt occupy a single piece of property whom the government considered a sovereign land nor did they use force of arms to cause a change of government. Same as coup d'etat. The RPC (Revised Penal Code) says that the crime of coup d'etat is a sudden seizure of power through force of arms. There was no sudden seizure of power nor the use of arms. There was a display of arms, that's for sure. And a reading of a statement denouncing the government and asking for the resignation of GMA. However, these actions do not constitute rebellion or coup d'etat.
What then?
The Peninsula incident could qualify for inciting to rebellion. Or an attempted case of coup d'etat.
What then?
Admit it, it was a tactical yet foolish move. It shows how brash and how stupid a strategist Trillianes is. He knows for a fact that the government will throw the book at him if he does this thing again.
However, I understand where he is coming from because Trillianes, obviously, is not combat-experienced. He did'nt take part in any war or was never in the battlefield. That's why he does'nt know the implications of his moves.
Was it contained?
Obviously, the government is using this incident to perpetuate a state of suspended animation. As I wrote here in this blog, GMA relish a period of instability. She survived for all these years due to a continuous state of destabilization. Why is she benefiting from all these? Because in this state, she is free to use the police powers of the state to neutralize both her military and political enemies.
This state could continue until the first quarter of January 2008, basing upon the acts of the government. Observe how government is fuelling this minor, inconsequential incident to render her enemies incapable of more concrete, more lethal actions.
Backfire
This strategy, which I consider a masterstroke, could backfire against the administration. One, it is creating an environment of dissent among the people. Two, it is creating an atmosphere of continuous rebellion which could blow right at their faces, should a more solid, more determined group take action against it.
What's clear
Groups are silent now. Meaning, they are preparing for a bigger, more explosive incident in the coming weeks. If the situation continues, it may lead to a bigger version of the Peninsula incident.
Coup or rebellion?
Was the incident a coup d'etat or a rebellion? Under Philippine jurisprudence, there are not enough elements to qualify the incident to either coup d'etat or rebellion. Inciting to rebellion would probably be their crime, not rebellion because they did'nt occupy a single piece of property whom the government considered a sovereign land nor did they use force of arms to cause a change of government. Same as coup d'etat. The RPC (Revised Penal Code) says that the crime of coup d'etat is a sudden seizure of power through force of arms. There was no sudden seizure of power nor the use of arms. There was a display of arms, that's for sure. And a reading of a statement denouncing the government and asking for the resignation of GMA. However, these actions do not constitute rebellion or coup d'etat.
What then?
The Peninsula incident could qualify for inciting to rebellion. Or an attempted case of coup d'etat.
What then?
Admit it, it was a tactical yet foolish move. It shows how brash and how stupid a strategist Trillianes is. He knows for a fact that the government will throw the book at him if he does this thing again.
However, I understand where he is coming from because Trillianes, obviously, is not combat-experienced. He did'nt take part in any war or was never in the battlefield. That's why he does'nt know the implications of his moves.
Was it contained?
Obviously, the government is using this incident to perpetuate a state of suspended animation. As I wrote here in this blog, GMA relish a period of instability. She survived for all these years due to a continuous state of destabilization. Why is she benefiting from all these? Because in this state, she is free to use the police powers of the state to neutralize both her military and political enemies.
This state could continue until the first quarter of January 2008, basing upon the acts of the government. Observe how government is fuelling this minor, inconsequential incident to render her enemies incapable of more concrete, more lethal actions.
Backfire
This strategy, which I consider a masterstroke, could backfire against the administration. One, it is creating an environment of dissent among the people. Two, it is creating an atmosphere of continuous rebellion which could blow right at their faces, should a more solid, more determined group take action against it.
What's clear
Groups are silent now. Meaning, they are preparing for a bigger, more explosive incident in the coming weeks. If the situation continues, it may lead to a bigger version of the Peninsula incident.
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